Amit Mishra Profile picture
Nov 3, 2020 59 tweets 92 min read Read on X
#Subex is setting the market abuzz with many brokers talking of relisting above 20 Rs - which is across a major 8 year breakout level of around 18.50

#CrunchMetrics #IDCentral #DigitalTrust #IoT #IoTSecurity
Will be see a dream run in #Subex post relisting given fundamentals are fast improving for both business operations and balance sheet

See embedded thread for brief history of its turnaround.

#CrunchMetrics #IDCentral #DigitalTrust #IoT #IoTSecurity #CyberSecurity
Typo-plz read “Will be” as “Will we”

I think we will 😊-next 2yrs at #Subex should be similar or better to what #TanlaPlatforms achieved in same time since #Karix acquisition in Aug2018

Cash books are ringing at Subex with good visibility

So watch this space for M&A/BuyBack!!
Hi @SForStiletto

#Subex got decent relisting-traded at highs of 18.65/18.5 at BSE/NSE

Are you still following it?

Guess further technical guidance will b on weekly/monthly closing?

Time permitting plz have a look & comment

Btw, am expecting good YoY #Q2FY21 result on 9Nov
Hot from press-good stuff

There are so many positive implications of this deal at so many levels

Another major boost post Telefonica deal

#Subex #TechMahindra #Blockchain

Tech Mahindra, Subex partner on blockchain-based solutions for telecom operators
economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/informati…
Official press release from #Subex on BSE:

bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…

#BlockChain #CyberSecurity Image
#Subex #TechMahindra deal - this is second path breaking deal (on global basis) similar to Telefonica deal at end of September 2020 in terms of scale and impact.
#Subex delivered very good #Q2FY21 numbers with YoY/QoQ growth-pics attached

Also impressive Half year growth
#H1FY21 vs #H1FY20

Rev
182/165

EBITDA(ex forex)~margins
58/33 ~31.9%/20%

PAT
27.4vs11.6

H2 is seasonally always better-watch this space

BSE: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… ImageImageImageImage
Quick summary on #Subex #Q2FY21 #H1FY21 results & Y-o-Y comparisone w #Q2FY20 #H1FY20

Given growth momentum w/ major deals getting signed, Subex should deliver stellar #H2FY21

Conference call is planned 10Nov 4:00 PM bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…

BSE Result: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… Image
Apologies - typo in the table for Q1FY21 revenues in the above tweet - it is not 93.3 (which is Q2FY21 revenue) but 88.7 - updated table attached here:
#Subex Image
over reaction by market close to Q2 results. #Subex has seen 2 LC in 2 days

But it had a vertical run since Sep’20 when it was trading at 9.xx, so some correction/consolidation was due.

hopefully this should stabilize around 17-18 range & give Nov monthly close above 8 yr BO
#Subex #Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Investor Presentation is out - have a look.

Nice presentation clarifying few additional facts and numbers.

Investor conference call is today at 4:00 PM for discussing the results.

BSE: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… ImageImageImageImage
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Concall key takeaways(1/n)

🔹Mgmt keen to use cash(H1 added 50Cr;total 140Cr) to grow thru both organic/inorganic routes-continue to invest in tech areas like #Blockchain #Cybersecurity #IoTSecurity #5G #Telecom to upgrade its #DigitalTrust offerings
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Concall key takeaways(2/n)

🔹Such investments are meant for enhancing existing products & build new verticals organically. Mgmt is actively analyzing options for inorganic expansion 🚀

#5G #Telecom #IoTSecurity #Cybersecurity #BlockChain #DigitalTrust
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Concall key takeaways(3/n)

🔹Mgmt is bullish on prospects of recent pathbreaking deals(global basis)signed with #Telfonica (#IoTSecurity) and #TechMahindra (#BlockChain #CyberSecurity) which fits well in #Subex growing #DigitalTrust portfolio

#5G #Telecom
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Concall key takeaways(4/n)

🔹Revenue realization for #IoTSecurity from Telefonica should start immediately. And TechM will follow soon as it goes to its client with bundled Subex tech layer of #BlockChain #CyberSecurity

#DigitalTrust
#5G #Telecom
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Concall key takeaways(5/n)

🔹Indian market contributes 5%of revenues-Subex is workin with all major Telcos.Mgmt is closely watching all developments related to #5G-can scale up easily.

#IoTSecurity #BlockChain #CyberSecurity
#DigitalTrust
#5G #Telecom
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Concall key takeaways(6/n)

🔹less travel costs resulted in high EBITDA margins(H1FY21~32%), which will reduce as intl travel eases off(FY20 margins were ~25%-no guidance from mgmt)

#IoTSecurity #BlockChain #CyberSecurity
#DigitalTrust
#5G #Telecom
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21 Concall key takeaways(n/n)

Company should upload the detailed call transcripts on BSE/NSE within a week - will post it here for information.
#Subex
#Q2FY21 #H1FY21

Investor Conference Call transcripts r now uploaded on Subex website

Have a look-lot of good information for understanding of business & where it is heading.

subex.com/pdf/investors/…

#IoTSecurity #BlockChain #CyberSecurity
#DigitalTrust
#5G #Telecom
reminder that #Subex has increased its employees by 15% (902➡️1038) during #Q2FY21

this is a good pointer for growth anticipated in line with recent developments, new major deals & mgmt’s guidance of robust deal pipeline

#DigitalTrust #IoTSecurity #Blockchain #5G #CyberSecurity Image
On lack of promoter queries, in add to below tweet, remember Chairman Mr Anil Singhvi’s holding 1.02Cr shares through his companies, Ican Invstmt Advisors & Anagha Advisors

Besides him,Subex Employee ESOPs trust has been massively buying since 2019 & holds now2.09Cr shares 3.72% Image
Good confident looking price action in #Subex ending the day with 20% Upper Circuit with significant rise in traded & delivered volumes. ImageImage
Another good day of market action for #Subex - closed above 31 Rs with massive volumes of 6.8 Cr on NSE and BSE.

Subex has also notified today of analysts/investors meeting. Interesting. 😊
Those who wants to hear the #Q2FY21 concall, please refer to the link in the below tweet from @SForStiletto - which is a part of very informative thread also - have a look.
#Subex closes another good deal with its long standing client Saudi Telecom - it has many positive implications for its business, some are immediate in Horizon 1 segment & some will certainly open doors for Horizon 2 & 3 products.

bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… Image
#Subex ’s other Telco clients(200+) wud be keenly looking 2 upgrade to iRAFM on Hadoop stack.

Next logical follow up wud be 4 STC to extend relationship to #IoTAnalytics & #IoTSecurity given Subex’s expertise & existing H1 deal, similar to Telefonica template.

Watch this space!
#Subex official handle’s tweet on #STC deal 👍🏼

Deal momentum has been very good since end Sep’20 - hoping more successes in coming months 😌
Livemint article on #Subex key highlights:

*#AI #ML based #CrunchMetrics (crunchmetrics.ai (FinTech,Ecommerce) may see deals soon-POCs already done in EU/APAC

*Big growth from H2&H3 in next 2-3yrs-SaaS Model

*New platform early 2021

*Zero debt

livemint.com/companies/news… ImageImage
#NewDeals

#Subex will be deploying its latest #ROC #FraudManagement for #Telefonica#LatinAmerica operations covering Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, Uruguay & Venezuela.

Press release: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…

#BigData #AI #ML Image
#Subex MD & CEO, Mr Vinod Kumar, provided details on recent deals & future outlook on CNBC

Besides highlighted points in pic, he advised growth as:
-niche business 5-10%
-IoT Security in multiples⚡️

Overall very confident & reassuring

#IoTSecurity #RAFM #CyberSecurity #Telecom Image
Telefonica & STC quantum is very good-each represents ~6-9% of current FY21 revenue estimates,to b realized in 12-18 mths, annuity service component is separate

& this is w/o TechM #BlockChain #CyberSecurity deal.

Good signs for #Subex back on growth path,deal pipeline is good.
Came across this article penned by Rajiv Singh (Global Head – Enterprise Security & Risk Management, Tech Mahindra).

TechM’s push on #CyberSecurity solutions in various applications in 5G setups- recent deal with #Subex should be in focus.

cio.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/digital-s… ImageImage
#Subex announced board meeting on 1 Feb 2021 for

1) #Q3FY21 #9MFY21 Results
&wait for it..
2) Interim #Dividend

to put things in perspective,last dividend was announced in 2007-so +ve surprise-stock reacted well too

bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…
#Q3Earnings
#IDCentral #CrunchMetrics ImageImage
In context of #Subex announcement for (consideration of) Interim #Dividend, summarising the trend of some cash parameters in recent years.

Massive growth in #H1FY21 as compared to full year numbers in past!

#SubexSecure #CrunchMetrics #IDCentral
#Q3FY21 #9MFY21 #Q3Earnings Image
👆🏼trends show tht #Subex shud end up w/ 200+ Cr Cash/Eq by #Q4FY21 end

So, Subex is well placed to give decent #dividend (interim+final) in #FY21 while board will surely find balance w/ its WC, R&D exp & inorganic growth aspirations

Even buyback could also b on cards in #FY22🤞🏼
Buyback is equally good if not more given total shares are 56Cr

Recently concluded Share Capital reduction in 2020 gives good enough reasons to believe that mgmt is quite serious & will do more to address large equity base.

Spoilt for choices😊-interesting times ahead at #Subex
#Subex #Q3FY21/#9MFY21 results r announced today

mixed bag really,while revenue growth isn't there QoQ & marginal YoY, this quarter was still exceptionally good in terms of strategic deals(some were announced already-Telefonica,STC,TecM,etc) which r opening up huge growth areas. Image
#Subex #Q3FY21/#9MFY21 results

After 14 long years, board has announced interim #dividend (10%=0.5Rs)-represent 28.1 Cr Rs cash outgo, signifying healthy cash situation-very positive.

BSE Result link: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…

Earning call is tomorrow-more updates after that. Image
As promised, #Q3FY21 #Concall summary for #Subex -lot of good stuff in it-have a look

Broadly, mgmt is quite confident about future & continuously getting success in newer areas which r highly scalable and will be growth engines for Subex

#IDCentral #CrunchMetrics #IoTSecurity ImageImage
Thanks @BradKhosla for replugging this article👍🏼

#ConnectedCars is another area where #Subex has leveraged its expertise last few yrs in #CyberSecurity & #DataAnalytics-all hard work is getting paid off w/recent engagements w/auto companies

#IoTSecurity #ElectricVehicles #EV
Nice advertisement from #Subex for the exciting new product-a game changer in fact 👍🏼

Those who read con-call notes posted👆🏼in this thread would b able to understand the product & its capabilities 😉

#AIRevolution #SubexAILabs #DigitalTrust
#AI #5G #Cloud #API
#Platform #SaaS ImageImage
To understand #IDCentral platform & its scalable potential, one doesn't need to look any further than this BlackSwan interview of #Subex COO Mr. Roddam

bswan.org/idcentral.asp

#Q3FY21 Concall provided updates on IDCentral progress-see brief notes👇

Image
#Subex opens a new chapter in its turnaround journey by joining prestigious O-RAN Alliance.

Multiple positive implications being part of this future tech,aimed to revolutionize RAN industry.

Check out details:

o-ran.org/membership

BSE press release: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… ImageImage
Impressive PR frm #Subex 4 launch of their upcoming platform,aimed 2 democratize #AI &ease #EnterpriseAI adoption

Watch the adrenal pumping video

“Everybody can do #AI

Mark ur calendars-14 Apr 2021 is the date😊

#AIRevolution #SubexAILabs #DigitalTrust
#Subex has now also formalized the subject of release AI automation platform for #Enterprises

Watch this space 👀😊

BSE link: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…

#AI #AIRevolution #SubexAILabs #DigitalTrust #AugmentedAnalytics #EnterpriseAI Image
Anagha of Anil Singhvi,sold 25lakh shares

Both Anagha&Ican r his family ventures & owned 1Cr shares-now holding 75lakhs post this sell,which cud b due 2 personal commitments

I’m not reading too much into it as fundamentally all looking good, but plz draw ur own conclusions🙏🏼 ImageImage
Thanks Patrick-agree in general-but sell could be for variety of reasons

So,I go back 2first principles & look at business-which remains solid w/good potential to grow-so all good😊

This table though isn’t clear 2me so far-hope it’s correct-wud b nice to hv these institutions🤞🏼
#Subex TA by Dr Laxmichand Gada @LaxmichandDr in below pics👇🏼

Further text for 4th pic
“38.2% correction of 13 years top & bottom( 790-2.9) is 303 & 61.8% correction of the same is 489”

It’s 4education purposes-do ur own due diligence🚨

@SForStiletto @van_daswani @PD_rockz ImageImageImageImage
#Subex #NewDeals

Another strategic partnership-this time w/ #SkyLab 2 jointly offer #CyberSecurity solutions & services to cater massive #Maritime industry

Growth potential is huge given increasing cyberattacks on shipping companies as noted in notice👇🏼

#IoT #OT #DigitalTrust ImageImage
#Subex was part of Centrum Broking’s Small/Mid Cap Investor Conclave (Nakshatra-The Shining Stars)-was attended by 70 fund houses👍🏼

brief notes on Subex👇🏼by them in post conference notes

#DigitalTrust #5G #AugmentedAnalytics #AI #IDCentral #CrunchMetrics #IoTSecurity #Analytics ImageImageImage
After Gartner’s listing of #Subex as Sample Provider for #AugmentedAnalytics,below report “Global AI and Analytics Systems Market Growth (Status andOutlook)2020-2025” lists Subex among global biggies!

What a turnaround! 👍🏼👏🏼

Some observations below👇🏼👀

ksusentinel.com/2021/04/15/glo… ImageImageImage
Analytics India Magazine @Analyticsindiam lists #Subex in "50 Best Firms In India For Data Scientists To Work For – 2021"

analyticsindiamag.com/50-best-firms-…

Congrats team Subex 👍👏

#Data #DataScience #Analytics #AugmentedAnalytics

Image
#Subex is in really good company here - see👇names of companies in the list-some very big names in there from the industry👍👏

#SubexSecure #IDCentral #CrunchMetrics
#Data #DataScience
#Analytics #AugmentedAnalytics #CyberSecurity
#AI #ML #Blockchain
#5G

ImageImage
Big news in Digital ID verification domain-#MasterCard 2 buy #Ekata for $850 Million

thanks @RakeshTraveller 4 sharing it.

Shows potential of #Subex’s #IDCentral platform(H3 product) in its #DigitalTrust portfolio👍🏼🚀

details on IDC in embedded tweet👇🏼

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/id… ImageImage
#NewDeal

#Subex has signed a multi-year with a Tier – 1 Customer in APAC region for supply of #ROC Business Assurance (BA) solutions (Horizon 1 product)👍

NSE weblink archives.nseindia.com/corporate/SUBE…

If interested visit Subex's BA webpage - plenty of good info subex.com/business-assur… ImageImageImageImage

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More from @MeAmitMishra

Jul 5, 2021
CPaaS & general Cloud Communication Sector will surprise everyone on the upside in India - expect it to exceed global CAGR avg.

Big theme for this decade - direct correlation with Digital theme.

Indian retail investors shouldn’t miss this opportunity.

gartner.com/doc/reprints?i… ImageImageImage
Since timing the market is near impossible, interested investors should SIP in related stocks of their liking after due diligence.
Potential: look at Twilio’s valuations-revolutionized communications in US(a matured digital economy)in 13yrs of its existence

India will have digital maturity by~2025

No rocket science-successful Indian player will repeat Twilio/Sinch

Some useful articles in embedded tweets👇🏼
Read 5 tweets
Nov 3, 2020
Thought of developing a bit more on comparisons being made between Route and Tanla

Both are in an undeniably hot sector and therefore attracting lot of attention

One needs to b careful while making any loose comparisons of Tanla & Route

(1/n)
#TanlaPlatform #Tanla #RouteMobile
When one dispassionately looks at both scrips, it can be easily seen that they are miles apart on financials,business operations, promoters, clients, regulatory front

Will list some of the reasons here below for everyone's consideration.

(2/n)
#TanlaPlatform #Tanla #RouteMobile
While reading this, please take your eyes off the share prices and price action because that doesn't represent value - price largely just represent sentiments.

(1) Route is a recently listed company post IPO in September 2020...(contd..)

(3/n)
#TanlaPlatform #Tanla #RouteMobile
Read 23 tweets
Oct 29, 2020
H1 results will b a revelation 4 lazy P&L st analysts making YoY compare bt discounting cash flow/EPS

& H2 is seasonally better

Market will do some math for sure- #TanlaPlatforms isn’t 13PE stock (FY21 est) with much high revenues/margins than #RouteMobile which now is at 40PE
And the proof is here:

#TanlaPlatforms #Tanla announced stellar results for #Q2FY21 :

Result: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…

Presentation: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf…

PressRelease: bseindia.com/xml-data/corpf… ImageImageImageImage
Read 17 tweets
Oct 24, 2020
@LltTomar Lalit,thanks for doing this poll.

Have voted YES of course as #Subex is in fact a resounding case of turnaround, which it achieved last year after 3 yrs of efforts from diligent mgmt with a clear vision.

Below tweets briefly captures few key events during this journey.
@LltTomar Turnaround of #Subex started in 2016 when all FCCBs were converted into equity, therefore wiping of the debt from the books.

Management’s intent further became clear and the turnaround efforts got boost when management launched Subex 3.0 in May 2017 (Subex’s 25 yrs anniversary).
@LltTomar Subex3.0 subex.com/press_release/…

In same year,Aug2017, #Subex did a major restructuring of business

Revenue Maximization Solutions & related businesses transferred to Subex Assurance LLP

Subex Secure & Analytics Solutions, related businesses transferred to unit Subex Digital
Read 14 tweets

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