Thread by @dke82

Brief reality check on what caused last 10 days of #bitcoin upside. Sure seems driven by #tether fear and people moving their money off #bitfinex $USDT (on a potentially bankrupt exchange) into $BTC and out to a safe place. Funds may not be #SAFU. Below #bfx to #bitstamp premium.

According to @thetokenanalyst, #bitfinex had net #bitcoin outflows of 112,500 $BTC since #tether news broke. That's 620m USD roughly. Assuming #bfx data accurate it would be entire traded volume in BTC to stablecoins since then. Bankrun in slow-motion with no one around noticing.

Further point on this - I have never seen positioning in #bitcoin on #bitmex be so Bullish (ie 1.7x Longs/Shorts) but at the same time seen mex futures in such strong backwardation (ie discount to present). Means market really wants $BTC now, but in three months - not so much.

If this actually becomes a full bank run, it will be super interesting to watch at which point the market fully realizes this narrative. Using very imperfect data on #bitfinex #bitcoin wallets and #tether balances, they can sustain this for maybe another 2-3 weeks. Not more.

It could easily blow $BTC past $6,000 in case it takes that long. Though I think most likely scenario (if all of this is true anyways) is a really big candle that then collapses quickly and that won't take weeks at all.