Thread by @JJSchroden

I’m seeing lots of stratospheric-level discussion on US drawdown to 2500 troops in #Afghanistan & what it might mean, but let’s get operational for a moment in this THREAD. 1/n

The US is conducting 2 missions in #Afghanistan: counterterrorism (CT) & train/advise/assist (TAA) of the #ANDSF. It does so from a half-dozen major bases around the country. The TAA mission it does w/@NATO ally forces. CT it does unilaterally & partnered w/Afghan #SOF. 2/n

For the past few years, TAA has been at the level of the MOD & MOI (in Kabul) & the Afghan Army Corps HQs & Afghan Air Force at regional bases. That posture—which was sustainable even at 4500 troops—is heavily enabled by contractors. 3/n

At 2500 troops, that posture isn’t sustainable & collapses into a few positions in/near Kabul. Which means the TAA mission at the Army Corps & AAF regional locations goes away. Advising would likely continue w/in the MOD & MOI HQs, which are close to @ResoluteSupport HQ. 4/n

The CT mission & air support to beleaguered #ANDSF would be prioritized & continue. I assume that most @NATO troops would also depart (since they tend to follow the US’ lead). And many of the contractors (eg those currently supporting the regional bases) would also leave. 5/n

It *might* be possible to cont the TAA mission via remote means—b/c of #COVID, US TAA forces haven’t been allowed frequent contact w/#ANDSF & have had to rely on remote conferencing & chat apps. So there’s some practice of this already. But obviously not as good as in person. 6/n

Net effects are likely to be:
- Continued CT ops & air spt to #ANDSF
- Reduced US visibility/intel on what’s happening outside of Kabul
- Reduced operational capability of the #ANDSF (even if remote advising continues, loss of regional log/maint support will have neg impacts) 7/n

And net gains on the ground for the #Taliban. It’s also not a sustainable long-term troop presence b/c it assumes the #ANDSF can hold the #Taliban at bay while the US does CT indefinitely, which is a bad assumption. 8/n

Bottom line: This move is meant to accomplish this👇 9/9

https://twitter.com/JJSchroden/status/1326716474552184833