Thread by @JJSchroden

I was thinking again this morning about the argument to rapidly withdraw from #Afghanistan (& #Syria, #Somalia...) emanating from the Trump White House & was reminded of a conference I spoke at last year, on the 30th anniversary of #alQaeda. 1/n

One of the audience Qs was "what events or developments might you predict would give #alQaeda the biggest boost in the future?" The other panelists--which included some of the US' best terrorism experts--gave great answers that covered a variety of possible contingencies. 2/n

Being by far the least impressive terrorist analyst of the group (& someone focused more on countering terrorism), I chose to focus on ourselves. My answer: "Another strategic blunder of historic proportions by the United States." 3/n

IMHO, the biggest shots in the arm for #alQaeda (& #ISIS) since 9/11 were the US invasion of #Iraq, the US' abrupt withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 & the US-enabled overthrow of Ghaddafi in #Libya. All were terrible US decisions. All strongly advanced the AQ/ISIS cause. 4/n

So while I agree that ending the "forever wars" is a noble idea & one we should be (& are) pursuing--a panicked withdrawal from #Afghanistan (& other locales) would be another major strategic blunder & shot in the arm of #alQaeda & #ISIS. 5/n

It would be awesome if we could actually learn from our own recent history/mistakes & not continue to shoot ourselves in the foot, other foot, leg, hand... END. 6/6