I was thinking again this morning about the argument to rapidly withdraw from #Afghanistan (& #Syria, #Somalia...) emanating from the Trump White House & was reminded of a conference I spoke at last year, on the 30th anniversary of #alQaeda. 1/n
One of the audience Qs was "what events or developments might you predict would give #alQaeda the biggest boost in the future?" The other panelists--which included some of the US' best terrorism experts--gave great answers that covered a variety of possible contingencies. 2/n
Being by far the least impressive terrorist analyst of the group (& someone focused more on countering terrorism), I chose to focus on ourselves. My answer: "Another strategic blunder of historic proportions by the United States." 3/n
IMHO, the biggest shots in the arm for #alQaeda (& #ISIS) since 9/11 were the US invasion of #Iraq, the US' abrupt withdrawal from Iraq in 2011 & the US-enabled overthrow of Ghaddafi in #Libya. All were terrible US decisions. All strongly advanced the AQ/ISIS cause. 4/n
So while I agree that ending the "forever wars" is a noble idea & one we should be (& are) pursuing--a panicked withdrawal from #Afghanistan (& other locales) would be another major strategic blunder & shot in the arm of #alQaeda & #ISIS. 5/n
It would be awesome if we could actually learn from our own recent history/mistakes & not continue to shoot ourselves in the foot, other foot, leg, hand... END. 6/6

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More from @JJSchroden

17 Nov
I’m seeing lots of stratospheric-level discussion on US drawdown to 2500 troops in #Afghanistan & what it might mean, but let’s get operational for a moment in this THREAD. 1/n
The US is conducting 2 missions in #Afghanistan: counterterrorism (CT) & train/advise/assist (TAA) of the #ANDSF. It does so from a half-dozen major bases around the country. The TAA mission it does w/@NATO ally forces. CT it does unilaterally & partnered w/Afghan #SOF. 2/n
For the past few years, TAA has been at the level of the MOD & MOI (in Kabul) & the Afghan Army Corps HQs & Afghan Air Force at regional bases. That posture—which was sustainable even at 4500 troops—is heavily enabled by contractors. 3/n
Read 9 tweets
12 Nov
I’ve been asked several times over the past couple of days (given the Pentagon shake-ups) whether it would be logistically feasible to get all US troops out of #Afghanistan by Christmas as Trump supposedly wants. So, here goes a THREAD. 1/n
The answer depends on what you consider “withdrawal” of all the troops. Currently, the US has somewhere around 5000 troops in #Afghanistan & @NATO has about as many (& possibly slightly more). They are located on a small number (10 or so?) of bases across the country. 2/n
Those forces are supported by another 10-15k (maybe more?) contractors. If all Trump wanted was to get the uniformed personnel out, it’d likely be possible to do that in 2-3 weeks (a C-17 can carry ~200 people), so 10k troops = 50 C-17 sorties. 3/n
Read 11 tweets
24 Sep
Watching the @USIP event with @US4AfghanPeace now. Some points that resonate with me in this thread. 1/n
His opening remarks were prepared and nothing really new there--hit all the talking points he's made in recent appearances. 2/n
First Q from Stephen Hadley: What makes you hopeful that talks will succeed? A: Both sides understand that violence cannot be the answer forever. Afghan leaders recognize they made a mistake in the wake of Soviet withdrawal by fighting each other--want to rectify that now. 3/n
Read 31 tweets
16 Sep
"The current Afghan system is totally corrupt and incapable," began one of the senior members of the #Taliban's negotiating team, suggesting that forming a coalition with the "sinking ship" of President @ashrafghani’s government would "drown the Taliban as well." 3/n
"The int’l community shouldn't be nervous," the deputy leader of the #Taliban's negotiating team insisted. Stanikzai said that, in return for being treated as a legitimate political entity in #Afghanistan, "we will be nice this time, more responsible in respect to int’l law." 4/n
“The senior #Taliban negotiator, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the previous TB regime—forced from power by the 2001 US-led invasion of #Afghanistan—was "inexperienced" and dismissed by the rest of the world, leaving it to "slide away from the int’l community." 5/n
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
The #Taliban political spokesman (@IeaOffice) live tweeted Mullah Baradar’s speech at the opening session of the #Afghanistan peace talks—THREAD.

“Speech by Mullah Baradar Akhund, Political Deputy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and Head of the Political Office” 1/n
Read 15 tweets
21 Aug
Very good thread by @and_huh_what. Seems to me the current govt wishes its BATNA would be Biden doubling-down on it, US-TB agreement be damned. More likely is its WATNA: US grows tired of its feet-dragging and heads for the exit before a deal is done. 1/n
The govt’s perceived position of weakness for peace talks isn’t b/c of the US-TB deal. It’s because the govt is highly corrupt & divided, has been militarily losing for the past 5 years, & global trends have made it far less important to its primary backers over time. 2/n
Contrary to popular belief, the war is not stalemated. The #Taliban have been steadily gaining ground tactically & operationally for years. The US-TB deal was borne of those trends + US recognition that the ROI on its interests in #Afghanistan is bad & getting worse. 3/n
Read 6 tweets

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