Thread by @JJSchroden

Op-Ed here by the leads of ⁦@USIP⁩’s #Afghanistan Study Group: “An abrupt withdrawal of US troops, as is now being contemplated by the Trump administration, would undermine the fragile but potentially transformational peace process.” 1/n washingtonpost.com/opinions/afgha…

“It would embolden the #Taliban, destabilize the Kabul government and allow terrorist groups to reconsolidate. A civil war could result, provoking a wider regional conflict and an inevitable humanitarian and migration crisis.”

They make 4 recommendations. 2/n

1. “We should make clear to all parties involved what the desired end state will be. In particular, a post-peace #Afghanistan must be able to either sufficiently control its territory to prevent the harboring of terrorists or accept international assistance to do so.” 3/n

2. “Affirm the US commitment to #Afghanistan’s constitutional order & gains in human rights, incl the rights of women.”

3. “Reemphasize to the #Taliban that the full w/drawal of US troops is strictly conditional on progress toward peace, incl genuine & broad ⬇️ in violence” 4/n

4. “Establish a more robust and coordinated regional diplomatic strategy. Concerted, unified diplomatic action by the United States is critical to build this support and prevent regional spoilers.” 5/n

“Americans generally agree that it is time to end this war. But withdrawing US troops irresponsibly would likely lead to a new civil war, inviting the reconstitution of anti-US terrorist groups & providing them with a narrative of victory against the US superpower.” 6/n

“Supporting peace negotiations offers the United States the chance to honor US sacrifices, secure core US interests & show this nation’s enemies that they cannot prevail.”

Note likely Biden SECDEF nom Michèle Flournoy is a member of the study group.
usip.org/programs/afgha… 7/7

PS: Full disclosure—I’m a senior advisor to the study group.