Thread by @PuntlandPirates

My second paper for @GI_TOC has just gone live.

It presents the first evidence of a criminal network based in #Somalia involved in the transfer of arms from #Iran to the #Houthis.

Some highlights (thread):

globalinitiative.net/analysis/iran-…

The dhow Al Bari 2 was seized in the Gulf of Aden by the #Saudi Navy on 24 June 2020. It was discovered to be carrying a consignment of arms reportedly destined for the #Houthi administration in #Yemen.

Here's a full list of the seizure contents:

The head of the network responsible for the Al Bari 2 smuggling operation is Mohamed Omar Salim, a Somali national based in Bosaso. Salim's network has links to #Somaliland, Yemen, the #UAE, and Iran.

Salim is also closely affiliated with Sayf Al-Hayashi, a Yemeni national under #OFAC sanction for allegedly supplying arms and financial support to #AQAP and #IS in Yemen.

The Al Bari 2's cargo included almost 1,300 Type 56-1 (AK-pattern) Chinese rifles. The rifles bore markings consistent with Type 56-1s found in previous seizures of arms believed to have originated in Iran.

Seized materiel believed to have been manufactured in Iran included ‘Dehlavieh’ anti-tank guided missiles, AM-50 Sayyad 12.7 x 99-mm sniper rifles, RPG-7 launchers, and RU60 thermal optics:

@SecPompeo highlighted the Al Bari 2 seizure as evidence that the #UN arms embargo on Iran needed to be extended. At the time, the US was embroiled in a battle at the Security Council over the reimposition of sanctions on Iran.

reuters.com/article/us-usa…

Pompeo attempted to use the Al Bari 2 case to garner support for US efforts to "snapback" sanctions on Iran. The US maintains that the terms of the #JCPOA (the "Iran nuclear deal") allowed it to unilaterally reimpose UN sanctions, despite having withdrawn from the deal in 2018.

The rest of the Security Council rejected the US position, however. According to all other UNSC members, the arms embargo on Iran expired on 18 October 2020.

My paper argues that attempting to salvage the JCPOA is a more viable strategy for reducing arms trafficking to the Houthis, by signalling to Iran that its national security is not dependent on its equipping of proxy forces.

President-elect Joe #Biden has already stated his intention to re-enter the JCPOA if Iran adheres to its commitments thereunder.

edition.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opi…

He won't have much time to save the deal, though. Public opinion in Iran continues to turn against the JCPOA, and with Iran's next presidential election slated for June 2021, Biden will need to move quickly.

He'll also have to work around any further provocations of Iran by the lame duck #Trump administration, which looks to be trying to deal a death blow to the JCPOA before Biden assumes office.

Publicly acknowledging that the arms embargo on Iran ended in October, as most of the rest of the world has done, would be a positive initial demonstration of good faith.