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Kelly Brown Profile picture
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2 Dec, 8 tweets, 3 min read
1/ Windsor, Ontario

Some chatter in Q&A’s in last few daily briefs with Premier/health officials re: rising cases in Windsor & potential for moving region to lockdown (just moved to “Red” zone on Mon, Nov 30).

Concern is hospital “overrun”… local hospital trends shown here…
2/
Case picture: yes, cases are rising, but overwhelming majority are traced to close contact or outbreak. Averaging only ~8 reported community cases of unknown origin per day.
3/
Overall new emergency admissions for three main Windsor-Essex hospitals appear to be:

*FLAT* for the entire month of November.

(Entire Erie-St.Clair area including Chatham/Sarnia also flat).
4/
Overall hospital admissions for respiratory illness and infections (excluding COVID19 admissions) in all of Erie-St. Clair appear to be:

*Trending down, and a full standard deviation *LOWER* vs. historical seasons*
5/
Overall hospital admissions for respiratory illness and infections (*including* COVID19 admissions) in all of Erie-St. Clair:

*Trending flat/down, and still *LOWER* vs. historical seasons*
6/
Even accounting for reporting delays, and for delays from symptom onset to, unfortunately, hospitalization, cases in Windsor have been rising since ~Oct 15, without a commensurate increase in overall emergent admissions, according to the above presented data.
7/ *IF* (and it’s still only an *IF*) Windsor, Ontario is thrown into lockdown, the people & businesses of that community would a deserve an explanation for such a measure, especially heading into Christmas season, in light of what appears to be normal/below normal hosp activity.
8/ End Thread

Data sources:
kflaphi.ca/ontario-acute-…
kflaphi.ca/aces-pandemic-…

If I am interpreting this data incorrectly, please reply to this thread to inform me/everyone.

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More from @rubiconcapital_

Kelly Brown Profile picture
22 Nov
1/ Toronto is entering full lockdown.

In this thread, I’ll show the absurdity of a citywide shutdown, simply using by-neighbourhood case/positivity data, w/ census data integration.

Unmeasurable, unnecessary collateral harm is coming; please read/share.

(get a cup of coffee)
2/ Note: if you are not in Toronto/Canada, you will still find this #SARSCoV2 prevalence analysis and its conclusions compelling, as these same dynamics likely exist in many of the world’s major cities.
3/ Quick note: this analysis follows and adds substantially to a previous related thread, found here (tweets 4a/b sites the data sources/limitations, which are the same as used in this current thread). All %pos/cases data is cumulative since Aug 30.
Read 39 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
20 Nov
1/ Brief thread… (I promise)

…focusing in on the correlations between (i) Toronto neighbourhood workforce/demographic concentrations & (ii) #SARSCov2 prevalence (cases/100k) identified in yesterday's thread.

Only a few sips of coffee/tea needed

(but this is no less striking) Image
2/ These data and observations *MUST* inform public policy on #SARSCov2/#COVI19, in my view.
3/ In my thread from yesterday, we examined % test positivity and cases/100k by neighbourhood in Toronto (for its 140 hoods) and then compared them to neighb'hood socioeconomic/demographic concentrations from census data to find (or not find) correlations.
Read 15 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
19 Nov
1/ Grab a cup of coffee (or tea)

A comprehensive, neighborhood-by-neighborhood review of #SARSCov2 prevalence/trends in the City of Toronto.

% positivity & cases, with weekly trends since Aug, AND:

*cross referenced with neighborhood census data*

The findings are incredible.
2/ Note: even if you are not in Toronto/Canada, I think you will find this data/analysis compelling, and universally applicable re #SARSCov2/#COVID19 learning and public policy implications.

Toronto’s diversity (>51% visible minority) makes it an interesting case study.
3a/ In this thread, I show/illustrate:

1. for Toronto’s 140 neighbourhoods (and groups of hoods, e.g. DT Core, Northwest), which have increasing/decreasing % pos & cases per 100k.

(Some peaked long before the Oct 10th restrictions. Others still increasing despite restrictions.)
Read 36 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
15 Nov
1/ Other Coronaviruses vs. #SARSCov2 in 🇨🇦 (continued)

Original thread below. Most striking observation was low circulation of Other Coronaviruses prior to #SARSCov2 “official” arrival in Feb/Mar 2020 in parts of Canada.

Additional observations follow…
2/ Canada-wide

Now showing prior 6 Coronavirus Seasons ('14-'20) vs. #SARSCov2

Coronavirus seasons occur like clockwork. Similar endemic peaks (~8%pos) / time frames.

%pos for #SARSCov2 in current ‘wave’ occurring much earlier vs. all prior years. PCR excess?
(see chart notes)
3/ Ontario

Similar trends. Note the seasonal decline in first “wave” of #SARSCov2 vs. timing of decline of every other Coronavirus season. Do lockdowns/restrictions really make a difference? Were we already heading down the curve when we locked down?
Read 8 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
14 Nov
1/ Other Coronaviruses (non-COVID19) vs. #COVID19 in Canada

Comparing %pos by week for past cold seasons vs. the 2019/2020 Novel Coronavirus season.

Three provinces: ONT, QUE, BC

I honestly don’t know how to interpret what I’m seeing but it’s eye popping to say the least...
2/ BC…

Appears to have had a normal cold season (other coronaviruses) in 2019/2020 (yellow line) compared to the prior three seasons.

#COVID19 arrives (dark black line, surges weeks 11-14), and declines (seasonally, it would appear).
3/ but Ontario and Quebec are way different…
Read 9 tweets
Kelly Brown Profile picture
20 Oct
1/ #COVID19 is having a significant impact on prevalence of other common respiratory pathogens, like influenza.

Globally, since COVID began, influenza cases are down * 98% * (see tweet-link below).

The Canadian data and implications are explored here🧵

2/ Guess what

Here in Canada, flu cases also *collapsed* when #COVID19 arrived

Since mid-April to today, lab-confirmed flu cases in Canada are: 154

Average of same the time-period in previous flu seasons?

*3,836*

(…despite increased flu testing)
3/ Here is an interesting visual

The 19/20 flu season (interrupted by #COVID19) vs. avg of ’16-‘19 flu seasons. # of cases and positivity % by week.

In 19/20, flu cases/positivity dive to near ZERO, whilst previous years the decline is (i) gradual, and (ii) never reaches zero.
Read 15 tweets

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