,
8 tweets,
4 min read
Read on Twitter
#Brexit beyond current crisis. Question. If we assume that the #HMG & U.K. need a deal with EU27 at some stage, how does what PM Johnson is doing affect this. @BrigidLaffan
1. #HMG has increased risk & uncertainty for all of Europe but has not put a single document with credible solutions on the table. David Frost & Steven Barclay have got to Burssels saying we want a deal but no solutions. @BrigidLaffan
2. @BorisJohnson has just now prorogued parliament which heightens U.K. crisis & signals to EU27 that political turmoil is gripping U.K. There is no incentive for EU27 to do anything other than keep channels open. @BrigidLaffan
3. @BorisJohnson wants to convince EU27 that U.K. will leave deal or no deal. EU needs no convincing-most European capitals now think a no deal exit is the most likely outcome. @BrigidLaffan
4. What happens after no deal when at some stage UK will want a deal? UK will have inflicted considerable pain on its neighbours & EU27 will not need to be nice. The same issues will be on the table & any future deal will have to be ratified by Oireachtas. @BrigidLaffan
5. No Irish Parliament will ever ratify a deal that undermines the normalisation of the border on island of Ireland & its EU partners will not pressure it to do so given the behaviour of U.K. @BrigidLaffan
6. The ‘dreary steeples of Fermanagh & Tyrone’ will not disappear & a U.K. government will have shredded their country’s reputation for good governance. @BrigidLaffan
7. Far too little attention in U.K. commentary about the importance of reputation in a highly interdependent world. Brexit might well break U.K. but it will also decimate UK’s soft power particularly if it inflicts pain on its neighbours.
