Thread by @DanielHegedus82

Run-up to the #EUCO
#RoL THREAD 1/12

According to information leaked from #Polish diplomatic circles, there is an agreement between the 🇭🇺&🇵🇱 governments & @EU2020DE on the modalities of ending the #BudgetBlockade.
@jancienski @VALERIEin140 @MarkusBecker
444.hu/2020/12/09/kes…

2/12
According to the plan, an #EUCO declaration will explain/limit the scope of the #RuleofLaw conditionality regulation as well as the timeframe of its application. The deal was allegedly sealed by #Orban & #Morawiecki Tuesday evening. @RULEOFLAWpl
rmf24.pl/newsamp-kompro…

3/12
Apparently #EUCO is ready to declare that member states will refrain from the application of the regulation in the Council as long as #CJEU is not ruling about the action for annulment case which will be brought forward against the regulation by 🇵🇱& 🇭🇺.
@PiotrBuras1

4/12
Thus #PiS & #Fidesz win time until 2022-2023. EUCO will also underline the strong connection between the #RoL conditionality mechanism and the EU's financial interest (which is anyhow given) and declare that the regulation is inapplicable in cases related to migration or ...

5/12
sexual rights (which is more or less a matter of fact, but of course their could be some exceptions). Especially this latter point will be sold in the 🇵🇱&🇭🇺 domestic discourse as huge symbolic victory, ... #LGBTQ

6/12
... while parallel it will be a sort of slight embarrassment for EU institutions and member states. However, this is not the symbolic prize which couldn't be paid for the fact that the #RoL conditionality regulation will be passed without further changes. @meyer_resende

7/12
The non-discrimination of sexual minorities and refugee rights are firm parts of the EU's legal order, and can be effectively protected by infringement procedures.
@MwiWind @iverorstavik

8/12
It is fair to say that the threat posture posed by the potential intergovernmental corona recovery package worked fabulously, bending the 🇭🇺&🇵🇱 governments much sooner than anyone has expected. The EU25 have to learn the lesson that they need pressure & leverage ...

9/12
... while negotiating with #Poland & #Hungary. The exact wording of the declaration is still a crucial issue and it must be avoided that it cuts substantially in the application of the #RoL regulation.
@DutchMFA @DanishMFA @SweMFA @Ulkoministerio

10/12
Overall, this isn't going to be a bad deal, and IMHO it is largely acceptable. (Of course, if it will be sealed along these lines.) It will be a huge Christmas gift for the governments desperately waiting for the #NextGenerationEU funds & of course for @EU2020DE as well.

11/12
However, don't be surprised if leaking the high plausibility of the deal is only is only a Polish-Hungarian tactical move to raise expectations & prepare the field for further small demands tomorrow in order to gain further small wins.
@EU2020DE @MiRo_SPD @liliebayer

12/12
Ultimately, some shameless self-marketing.
Everything what happened, including the above draft deal, was and is pretty much in line with these scenarios drafted in the middle of November.
euobserver.com/opinion/150098

https://twitter.com/DanielHegedus82/status/1328360383535587330

@gmfus @AU_EuropeCenter @BipartisanTDWG @ProfPech @rdanielkelemen @LaszloAndorEU @herszenhorn

UPDATE +1
Here is the text of the draft #EUCO conclusion, courtesy of @PeterKapern
No mentioning of #LGBTQ rights or migration, which is a positive development.
Delay is incorporated in paragraph C)

https://twitter.com/PeterKapern/status/1336704676469870592

+2
However paragraph F) is rather concerning as it states that the regulation does not relate to generalized deficiencies.
Nevertheless also generalized deficiencies can have an impact on the EU's financial interests, hence this paragraph is rather unfortunate ...

+3
... and represent a not so insignificant concession, especially for Poland, where generalized deficiencies related to the independence of the judiciary are the major issue of concern.