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Daniel Hegedus Profile picture
Daniel Hegedus
@DanielHegedus82
International Relations and Policy Analyst. Regional Director for Central Europe at @gmfus @gmf_ece. Views are personal. Metal & Bluegrass fan.
Aug 27 • 7 tweets • 2 min read
A #Hungarian national named #BenceHorváth was arrested by U.S. authorities in San Francisco on August 23 for attempting to purchase U.S. military-grade communications equipment and ship it to #Russia.
What do we know about Bence Horváth?
THREAD 1/3
justice.gov/usao-dc/pr/hun… 2/3
 We know that #BenceHorváth was part of the official Hungarian #MFA delegation led by #PéterSzijjártó in February 2022 to Egypt and Bahrain.

atlatszo.hu/kozadat/2023/0…
Jul 27 • 25 tweets • 4 min read
#ViktorOrbán's speech at the Baile Tusnad summer university in bullet points
THREAD 1.
"Trump ante Portas"
Orbán's peace mission was an act of Christian duty. Image 2.
 The EU is striving for peace through war.
It resembles the argument of Lenin that the withering of the state happens through the strengthening of the state, and Orwell's newspeak and the famous "war is peace".
Jul 11 • 18 tweets • 4 min read
No legal arguments at hand? Take your most political one and claim that it is actually a legal one. Or a sort of...
No, the fact that #HU24EU is already ongoing has actually no direct legal implications. #EUCO still has the discretional power to determine the presidency calendar.
THREADImage 2. Over the past days, arguments were repeated that cutting short Viktor #Orbán's Council Presidency aka #HU24EU is built on shaky legal basis & #CJEU would actually rule against the decision, in favor of Hungary.
Jul 8 • 20 tweets • 3 min read
Following the first week of #HU24EU which 🇭🇺 PM #Orbán actively exploited to ridicule & troll the EU & spread instability, I would like to remind that it would be still possible to deprive him the #CouncilPresidency & move on with an extended #Polish one.
THREAD on why & how 1. 2. As correctly predicted more than a month ago, #Orbán actively uses and abuses #Hungary's rotating EU Council Presidency to demonstrate his political autonomy, undermine joint EU positions, support contenders & ultimately troll the EU.
euobserver.com/eu-and-the-wor…
Dec 20, 2023 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
We put pen to paper with @VeghZsuzsanna to provide you a readout of last week's #EUCO & its developments with #Ukraine & #Hungary.
Check out our analysis and the two scenarios we see plausible, published by @VisegradInsight
@gmfus @GMF_ECE
THREAD 1/4
visegradinsight.eu/orbans-blockad… 2/4
 We argue that the battle with the 🇭🇺 government over financial and political support for #Ukraine is far from over in the #EU.
Oct 25, 2023 • 11 tweets • 2 min read
#Slovak President @ZuzanaCaputova appoints #RobertFico's next government this afternoon.
While in balance of power #Fico made far reaching concessions to #Hlas, the composition of the government justifies all previous concerns.
THREAD 1/10
spectator.sme.sk/c/23235949/pre… 2.
 Robert #Kalinak, Fico's right-hand man & minister of interior during the #Kuciak murder, will serve as #Slovakia's new defense minister. Together with Fico, early 2022 Kalinak belonged to the most vocal critics of the Defense Cooperation Agreement with the #UnitedStates. #DCA
Oct 16, 2023 • 10 tweets • 2 min read
Democratic opposition most likely winning in #Poland, here are four takes of mine what to watch, what comes and what should come next.
THREAD 1/8
First, with #PiS losing majority & the #PO, Poland 2050 and Left coalition has a clear mandate to govern,
notesfrompoland.com/2023/10/15/exi… 2/8
 president #Duda faces a tough choice between party political loyalty to PiS & his future career beyond his presidency term.
He might choose the first option, trying to win time for #Kaczynski. Hence the road to a new #Tusk coalition government might be long and bumpy.
Jul 22, 2023 • 19 tweets • 4 min read
🇭🇺 PM Viktor #Orbán's 2023 #Tusnádfürdő/Baile Tusnád speech since 2019 just started. Follow it live here 👇 or key points in my THREAD
https://t.co/CQ5DIfvQK6
Image 1. Strong start with a direct provocation to the #Romanian foreign office in response to an alleged 🇷🇴 demarche: "we have never stated that "Erdély/Transylvania" or "Székelyföld/Székelyland" would be Romanian territorial entities"
Jun 30, 2023 • 9 tweets • 2 min read
THREAD 1/8
We had a great joint @AuthlibEU / @FH_NIT panel & highly insightful conversation with @PetraGuasti @RomanHlatky @AlexandraKarppi & @VeghZsuzsanna on democratic and authoritarian trends in the #CentralEurope region.
Watch the video here 👇
https://t.co/yxgpsu85HZauthlib.eu/region-torn-fr…
2. Key takeaways
👉In 2022 the shock caused in the security environment and international politics by the full-scale #WarofAggression of #Russia against #Ukraine slowed down #autocratization trends in #Poland.
Dec 8, 2022 • 4 tweets • 3 min read
No, I am not leaving out that fact. I am happy to confirm that your GOV is blocking #NATO-#Ukraine Commission since 2017. Which is a disgrace.
You equate the importance of the #EuroAtlantic perspective of a 43m nation ... ... to the right to use minority language in the secondary education (!) in case of a 150k national minority. That's disgrace. Your government could have solved the issue long ago if you would be ready to offer something (perhaps some political support) to Kyiv ...
Dec 6, 2022 • 12 tweets • 10 min read
Today #ECOFIN postponed all four #Hungary related agenda items without decision as #Hungary made it clear that continues rejecting the EUR 18bn aid package to #Ukraine
#ECOFIN asked @EU_Commission to prepare an alternative legal/financial modality not requiring #unanimity
🧵 1/10 2/10
Looking for alternative, #intergovernmental borrowing modalities would have been the sober and diligent approach - as many, including the author of this post suggested - couple of month ago.
Dec 5, 2022 • 8 tweets • 8 min read
The @EU_Commission presented its latest assessment about the #Hungarian Potemkin #AntiCorruption package on November 30. #Germany, #France & #Italy asking the #Commission a couple of days later to do the same again is a slap in the face of the Commission, @Europarl_EN
THREAD 1/7 2/7
 the German @Bundestag, which asked the #Bundesregierung to take a hard stance in this matter, and the #RuleOfLaw in general.
bundestag.de/dokumente/text…
Sep 30, 2022 • 21 tweets • 12 min read
How the EU provides lifebelts for autocratic regimes
My latest piece published by @IPGJournal on the saga of #EU financial penalties for #Hungary and why the story will end with a weak compromise.
Key arguments in THREAD below 1/19
@gmfus @GoodLobbyProfs
ips-journal.eu/topics/democra… 2/19
Over the past two years the European Commission significantly improved its toolkit designed to enhance #RuleOfLaw & impose sanctions over Member States disregarding fundamental EU values.
Aug 27, 2022 • 17 tweets • 16 min read
I had an interesting conversation on #Polish-#Hungarian relations yesterday under #ChathamHouse rule. I would like to share my key conclusion without further details. It will be highly disturbing from a #Polish perspective, but may contribute to a reflection process.
THREAD 1/15 2/15
#Polish foreign & security policy talks from an intellectual and moral high ground to previously more #Russia-friendly partners, especially #Germany, because PL & the Baltic states correctly predicted Russia's aggressive behaviour,
Jul 3, 2022 • 12 tweets • 11 min read
How to get the #grain out of #Ukraine?
The West has feasible options to challenge #Putin's #HungerPlan & avoid a #globalfamine.
Check out my latest piece at @TransitionsMag & see key arguments below THREAD 1/11
@gmfus
tol.org/client/article… 2/11
#Ukrainian defensive minefields around #Odessa & the #Russian #SeaBlockade are the two key challenges to establishing a secure sea lane for 🇺🇦 #grain export.
May 6, 2022 • 18 tweets • 16 min read
Long THREAD on the potential #Hungarian #veto of the #SixthSanctionPackage @gmfus
1.
 As I highlighted in this previous piece of mine, it is not a surprise that #Orbán is tying the question of #RussiaSanctions to the #RuleOfLaw conditionality regulation ...
tol.org/client/article… 2.
and the suspended #RecoveryFunds.
#Orbán just repeats his strategy he pursued with success in case of the 2020 EU budget blockade.
He is aware of the fact that due to his rampage in EU politics he has lost nearly all of his persuasive and negotiation power,
Mar 9, 2022 • 13 tweets • 14 min read
.@SecBlinken refuses #Polish proposal that the #US should transfer 🇵🇱 #Mig29s to #Ukraine.
In light of the #Fulcrum limbo of the past days I would like to reiterate that it is possible to reinforce Ukrainian #airdefence in another ways. @gmfus
THREAD 1/12
edition.cnn.com/2022/03/08/pol… 2/12
As I argued a couple of days ago, the transfer of Soviet-era air superiority fighters from #NATO stocks could be an important symbolic move, but they are not the ideal #airdefence assets under the given circumstances. Arguments below 👇
Dec 5, 2021 • 4 tweets • 6 min read
Great to see the growing opposition in #Israel to the acquisition of #satellite operator #Spacecom by #4iG, owned by #Orbán's strawman #LőrincMészáros.
THREAD 1/4
haaretz.com/israel-news/.p… 2/4
 There appears to be a growing pattern that #Orbán allies look for investment opportunities in the high-tech end of the international defence & security sector. (See the case of #AeroVodochody and its Hungarian investors)
reuters.com/article/uk-aer…
Dec 5, 2021 • 6 tweets • 7 min read
What is in the background of the #Lega-#PiS fallout?
THREAD 1/6
#Lega is divided on the question what should be the party's future direction. There is a growing support for heading to #EPP, which puts pressure on @matteosalvinimi, who is otherwise very pragmatic in this question. 2/6
 So #Salvini has more options and leeway than his #RadicalRight counterparts, but he also needs palpable results what he can present for his constituency.
#Lega
Dec 4, 2021 • 7 tweets • 7 min read
European #RadicalRight jamboree soon resumes in #Warsaw, without @matteosalvinimi & his #Lega. Maybe I am wrong, but considering the recent fallout between the host #PiS & #Lega, it is rather unlikely that today's meeting will result in anything else than #PR pure.
THREAD 1/3 2/3
 The union of European #RadicalRight doesn't appear to be an actual political reality and showcasing close coordination and joint plans for the future is perhaps more difficult for #Lega, #RN, #PiS, #Fidesz & #FratellidItalia than ever since 2019.
Nov 27, 2021 • 7 tweets • 6 min read
On a leaked audio recording, chairman of the #Hungarian parliament #KövérLászló calls 🇭🇺opposition the most significant #NationalSecurity threat the country is facing and asks the 🇭🇺 domestic intelligence agency to mitigate this threat. (THREAD 1/5)
444.hu/2021/11/27/kov… 2/5
 #Kövér addressed the leadership of the domestic intelligence/counter-intelligence agency #AVH in February 2020.