Thread by @mayer_iras

"While Britain’s pandemic plan assumes a new virus will be unstoppable, Asian countries focused on containment in a bid to minimise mortality " telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…

https://twitter.com/PaulNuki/status/1337120085425664001

The epic failure of Western countries was already in the making for a long time. It is not only due to undecided political leaders, but also due to a deficient epidemiological knowledge base with which experts have cognitively framed the pandemic in the crucial first 2-3 month.

The same holds true for the a 2013 German pandemic scenario developed for the Parliament dipbt.bundestag.de/dip21/btd/17/1… Nowhere does it feature the idea that suppression/containment should be a priority or even could be a viable strategic option.

Note the German scenario assumes a SARS-like virus with an IFR ten times higher than that of #Covid19. Though the scenario expects 7,5 Mio deaths, the proposed measures don't include epidemiological insights gained by East Asian countries after their SARS experiences

There seems, then, only one plausible conclusion: The virus was and is not unstoppable. But wrongly assuming so plunged us into the current mess, with hundreds of thousands of deaths and the self-imposed destruction of our economies.

That kind of mistake should humble the scientific community in the West. The puzzle why epidemiology in the "West" only focused on an "influenza strategy" as pointed out by @devisridhar

https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1336022644282408960

needs to be fully explained

In Germany (at least) a learning process has not yet started in earnest. Few if any conversations with virologists and epidemiologists from East Asia are happening. Why not?

https://twitter.com/mayer_iras/status/1331219908349349892

The clarity with which some experts zeit.de/2020/52/corona… are now calling for a quasi-suppression strategy comes to late. This view, in fact, was a fringe position in the first half of the year 2020.

Suppression strategies must be a crucial element of the future pandemic tool box and a core component of preparedness. Fatalist assumptions of the unstoppability of a virus need to be replaced with rational and balanced strategies.

For that to happen #EpidemicOrientalism needs to be defeated, as it was one great factor in distorting the assessment of scientists.

#EpidemicOrientalism caused a lot of harm and should not be in the way (again) when drawing the key lessons from Asian approaches in suppressing #covid19 cicero.de/aussenpolitik/…