#EUCO leaders have talked through the night on two contentious issues: sanctions against Turkey and raising the EU’s 2030 emissions reduction target.

On thé latter, we’re close to a deal but not quite there yet. Eastern countries want more money for the energy transition.
But they are still stuck on the 2030 climate target as Poland wields its veto, just as it did for the 2050 target.

Last time Poland was bypassed and the target was signed by all except Warsaw. Will they have to do that again now?
PM #Morawiecki says he’ll only drop his climate veto if #Poland can keep more profits from #EUETS emission trading, reportedly telling the other leaders he’ll lose his job if he returns to Warsaw without this concession (having caved on his #EUBudget veto threat last night).
BREAKING: the raised 2030 climate target has been adopted.

Waiting to get clarity on what concessions were made to avoid a Polish veto.
#EUCO conclusions finally published.

2030 target will "take account of Member States’ different starting points", "taking into account considerations of fairness and solidarity"
consilium.europa.eu/media/47296/10… Image
The Council conclusions specifically mention the use of fossil fuel natural gas as a 'transition fuel' - meaning it could still be eligible for EU funds and be compatible with the #GreenDeal.
And here's compromise with #Poland:

Commission will consider allowing MS to keep more #EUETS revenues. "Imbalances for beneficiaries of the Modernisation Fund in not receiving revenues that are equivalent to the costs paid by the ETS installations in those MS will be addressed" Image
#EUCO President @CharlesMichel: "On climate, let’s just say quite a lot of last night was spent discussing this. It wasn’t at all easy because the Commission was very ambitious." Image
A beaming, visibly relieved (maybe even elated) Commission President @vonderleyen says the climate and budget deals reached overnight mark a great day for Europe.

"This puts us on a clear path toward climate neutrality in 2050, and gives certainty to businesses and citizens." Image
President Michel dodges a question from @FredSimonEU about specifically what cash concessions were made to Eastern Europe in order to end the Polish veto on 2030 climate target.

Michel: "We’ll come back to the #EUCO to continue our discussion on implementation of these measures"
An EU official provides more clarity on what the hold-up was:

💶Modernisation Fund: "Discussions were challenging because a member state was seeking to secure certainty and stability of the funding. Other MS couldn't commit to such certainty". Issue will be dealt with later.
📈#EUETS: Disagreement over whether there should be national targets for economic sectors not in ETS. "Solution was to retain on this issue a role for the European Council."

Essentially, they got a climate agreement by putting off implementation decisions.
#Poland says it's happy with the end result on 2030.

But other leaders are deeply unhappy about Poland's behaviour last night.

One diplomat says #Morawiecki was exploiting tomorrow's #ParisAgreement anniversary time pressure to extract extra cash for Warsaw.
So what's next after #EUCO leaders overcame #Poland's veto this morning and adopted the #EU2030 target?

Many things have been kicked into next year for the Commission to decide.

My article for @Forbes:
Last update for the night before I finally get some much-needed sleep.

A quick explanation of why Poland was able to extort cash from the EU last night in exchange for agreeing the #EU2030 target, and their justifications for doing so.

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More from @DaveKeating

12 Dec
#Brexit update: Anything could happen tomorrow, but my guess is nothing will happen.

Talks are continuing as we speak, but there's no phone call or announcement scheduled for tomorrow's "deadline".

It's possible we end tomorrow with no news.
Like all the past deadlines (June, Oct), they've simply said that on Sunday they'll assess 'whether enough progress has been made to continue talks'.

When each deadline came they've said 'we've made some small progress so let's continue'. That may happen again tomorrow.
But if they decide to continue, surely at this point those talks will be only a charade.

Neither side wants to be seen as the one walking away from the table. Johnson flirted with it in October, then chickened out.

Talks will technically continue but #NoDeal will be assured.
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec
UK government now saying that if the EU doesn't give Britain a deal in the next 2 days, they will send gunboats to protect their fish from French fishermen.

Expect the threats to get even wilder in the coming days. This is what panic looks like.
More on exactly what the UK government said here.

They knew exactly what headlines this wording would generate.
Among #NoDealBrexit contingency measures triggered by the EU Commission Thursday is a request to UK for continued reciprocal access by EU & UK vessels to each other's waters.

Without it there is a risk of sea violence in the English Channel in January.
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec
Exactly how long of a reprieve does this "explanatory declaration" grant Hungary & Poland from being subject to #RuleOfLaw mechanism?

Nobody knows. Some lawyers saying 2 years. EU Justice Commissioner saying only a few months.
The (rather predictable) response to #EUBudget compromise from 🇭🇺: "Hungary and Poland claimed a historic victory in the #RuleOfLaw negotiations".

In reality, the mechanism has remained intact. Application may or may not be delayed up to 2 years, depending on legal developments. Image
Belgian PM @alexanderdecroo says an urgent procedure could be used to avoid delays in the ECJ ruling.

The courts are "impartial" he says. “I do not think that it is a victory of one over the other, this is just a good way going forward.”
Read 4 tweets
11 Dec
After all-night negotiations on the EU’s raised 2030 climate target (finally just adopted), a *very* short update on #Brexit is now happening.

Squeezed in at the last moment at 8am. These leaders are not changing their red lines.
An EU official says the #EUCO #Brexit update was indeed brief and that "the probability of a no deal is higher than of a deal".

Negotiations will resume today.
President @vonderleyen on #Brexit: "On level playing field we have repeatedly made clear to our UK partners that the principal of fair competition is a precondition to privileged access to the EU market. It is the largest single market in the world and it’s only fair." Image
Read 6 tweets
10 Dec
Polish PM #Morawiecki is one of the 1st to arrive

Uncharacteristically, he gives doorstep remarks in English about #RuleOfLaw. "Dear citizens of Europe" he says. The #COVID19 fund and MFF need to be agreed. But "we need to avoid any arbitrary and politically motivated decisions" Image
Polish PM says mixing #EUbudget and #RuleOfLaw "creates a very dangerous situation where politically motivated premises may stand behind the mechanism of attacking any country"

"Today we fear we may be attacked in an unjustified way. But in future it could be any country"
Sweden's PM Löfven, one of the hawks on #RuleOfLaw, enters #EUCO saying he thinks German compromise does a good job "making sure the agreement made between Council & Parliament stays as it is."

"There's no compromise on the content" Image
Read 8 tweets
10 Dec
EU prime ministers and presidents are about to start arriving here for the #EUCO summit.

Key thing to watch as they make their doorstep remarks: any sign of wavering on #Brexit? Any openness to changing the negotiating mandate red lines?

So far there has been absolutely no sign Image
On #Brexit, @SwedishPM Löfven is "more gloomy today", he says entering #EUCO. "From what I hear there's no progress made in recent days."

"We've always said we're preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. But it's a difficult situation"

No indication of surrender. Image
The Polish & Hungarian prime ministers both chose to speak in English upon entering the #EUCO summit - a rarity. But neither mentioned #Brexit. They spoke about the imminent compromise on #EUbudget #RuleOfLaw dispute.

Brexiteers once thought Poland would be an insider ally in EU ImageImage
Read 8 tweets

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