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Tara Moriarty Profile picture
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3 Jan, 8 tweets, 4 min read
Here's how to find my 3 regular threads on C19 deaths in #Canada

Search @MoriartyLab plus one of these phrases:

1. Weekly Thurs/Fri full update: "1 of every #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb"

See next tweet for instructions on finding daily posts
Nightly posts:

Search @MoriartyLab plus 1 of:

2. "Estimated number of lives lost to vaccine-preventable #COVID19 infections": Estimated projected deaths LTC

3. "Canadians could die in next 28 days": Estimated projected deaths (all), based on daily rate of change in deaths
It is crucial that Cdns push REALLY HARD to ensure all residents in long-term care & retirement homes are vaccinated by January 15th.

I have a public Twitter list of ppl posting about #COVID19 in LTC in #Canada. Pls tell me should be on it & use this list to amplify LTC news.
Pls also help get the following request out to ALL #Canadian media. We need journalists to ask about the cumulative number of LTC/RH cases, deaths & vaccinations in every single daily presser.

Sorry. Forgot to link to my Canadian COVID-19 LTC Twitter list. Anyone can follow it.

I especially need to find ppl posting about this outside Ontario (BC, AB, SK, MB, QC). Please tell me who to add.

Here it is:

twitter.com/i/lists/132265…

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More from @MoriartyLab

Tara Moriarty Profile picture
5 Jan
#Canadian scientists, science communicators, HCPs who vaccinate and is scientifically knowledgeable about #COVID19 vaccines

Are you frustrated by slow vaccination rates, vaccines being thrown out? Do you want to help now?

There one very big way we can help now.
Many HCWs scheduled to be vaccinated now are nervous about the vaccine and would like to be able to talk to knowledgeable experts and have supportive, non-judgemental discussions.
It is incredibly important that we provide support and information and conversation about the COVID vaccines to people who live, work in & visit long-term care and retirement homes in Canada. And we need to do it NOW.
Read 25 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
4 Jan
Do you work, live in or visit a long-term/personal care or retirement home in #Canada, or do you know someone who does?

Are you worried about whether the #COVID19 vaccines are safe, and if you should take them?

If so, I'm starting a nightly Zoom session to answer questions.
If you'd like the link to attend, please email me: tara.moriarty(at)utoronto.ca.

If a lot of people want to attend, my first priority right now is people associated w/ LTC/retirement homes.

Je suis (pas mal) bilingue. Alors, je suis capable de discuter en francais.
I'll do the sessions at 8 p.m. Eastern time, so it's not too late for Atlantic folks, but also late enough for many people on the West coast to be home from shifts. I'll do the sessions on weekends too so that as many people as possible can attend.
Read 9 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
12 Dec 20
One last post for night about number of NEW #COVID19 deaths that will occur in #Canada between today Jan 1 if we don't slow spread NOW.

This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan
1. In last 7 days, #COVID19 deaths grew by 21%.

2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.

3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths

cont...
4. If deaths grow 21% Dec 19-25, by Christmas Day there will be 903 x 1.21=1092 new deaths.

5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.

TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317

#StayHome
Read 4 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
12 Dec 20
Dec 11

Tonight's thread on #Canadian #COVID19 deaths, & long-term/personal care/retirement homes

We will have 1000s of deaths before New Year's. Vaccines will take months to protect most at-risk.

Please protect your fellow #Canadians.

If you can, #StayHome
Dec 11

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 112 in AB
1 in 153 in SK
1 in 44 in MB
1 in 36 in ON
1 in 22 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,107 new LTC cases in last 7d
Dec 11

#Canadians

#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

The only larger death tolls: World Wars I & II, 1918-1920 flu & AIDS

This week 746 Cdns died of C19. 1000s more will die before New Year's.

Please prevent more deaths by staying home.
Read 35 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
10 Dec 20
Starting thread about how many #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19 in next 3 wks

1. last day Hanukkah (Dec 18)
2. Christmas eve (Dec 24)
3. New Year's eve (Dec 31)

This is so those travelling, socializing indoors in next 3 wks remember the dying during celebrations of hope.
As of Tues Dec 8, #COVID19 deaths across #Canada were increasing 17%/wk.

BUT death rates are accelerating 11%/wk in last month, so this wk they'll increase 19%, next wk 21%, wk after 23%.

Let's do the math to translate into how many people will likely die on Dec 18, 24, 31.
Gah! I forgot to add image. Look at the red line on the graph on the right (Canada).

That shows how fast death rate is changing over time.

A flat line is steady increase by the same number of deaths/day. Upward slope is acceleration (speeding up).

Read 10 tweets
Tara Moriarty Profile picture
9 Dec 20
Dec 8

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 113 in AB
1 in 161 in SK
1 in 53 in MB
1 in 35 in ON
1 in 21 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,225 new LTC cases in last 7d Image
Image
Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Case fatality rates since start of epidemic Image
Read 32 tweets

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