#Canadian scientists, science communicators, HCPs who vaccinate and is scientifically knowledgeable about #COVID19 vaccines

Are you frustrated by slow vaccination rates, vaccines being thrown out? Do you want to help now?

There one very big way we can help now.
Many HCWs scheduled to be vaccinated now are nervous about the vaccine and would like to be able to talk to knowledgeable experts and have supportive, non-judgemental discussions.
It is incredibly important that we provide support and information and conversation about the COVID vaccines to people who live, work in & visit long-term care and retirement homes in Canada. And we need to do it NOW.
Every single vaccination of someone who works, lives in or visits LTC can save 1 life or more. I've been tracking Canadian COVID-19 deaths & deaths in LTC & RHs for months. More than 3,000 Canadians will likely die in the next 28 days.
My back of the envelope projections predict that in next 28 days nearly 8,000 Canadians who live in LTC & RHs will contract a fatal case of COVID-19, based on current rates of case increases in general population.

I'll add the data for these predictions at the end of the thread.
Every single hour of delayed vaccinations will cost lives right now. Many, many lives. Most of us know this, which is why we're desperate.

A huge concern that we can ALL help with right now is vaccine hesitancy among people working, living in & visiting LTC & retirement homes.
Although evidence shows that there are ways to effectively share accurate vaccine information on social media, what we do know is that NOTHING can replace non-judgemental, compassionate, person-to-person conversations.

These take a lot of time, but there are many of us.
I started doing Zoom sessions last night where LTC/RH-linked Canadians who want to ask questions about COVID-19 vaccine safety can attend, anonymously if they want. There were 3 scientists, including me @KrishanaSankar @thekimgauthier who dropped in to help. It was great.
Thanks to @OntarioHealthC , who quickly got word out to ON unions representing LTC workers, and to LTC & RH homes themselves, there is now substantial interest in these Zoom sessions.
There are MANY people who are scheduled to receive vaccinations in the coming days and hours who still feel worried and need to be able to talk to someone who knows a lot about the vaccines. We need to provide this support, and it is something all of us can do right now.
I have a professional Zoom account. I can obviously only do a couple of hours each day of talking to people because of my job. But what if many of us could spare an hour once or twice a week to get on Zoom to listen and talk? What if we could do this 16 h/day?
What if we did this in multiple languages, so that people could attend the sessions where they feel most comfortable asking questions?

It wouldn't be hard to do--just requires organization and scheduling & a list of names & availabilities.
We'd all be doing this in our personal capacities, the way we all talk to our families, neighbours, friends. It's informal--we'd make ourselves available as fellow citizens with specialized knowledge who can help those experiencing some of the worst of the epidemic.
If you'd be interested in doing this, just send me an email at tara.moriarty(at)utoronto.ca. If this gets out of hand I'll figure out a smarter way to handle the information flow, but for now, let's see how many people out there would be interested in doing this.
I'm so incredibly tired, and angry, watching the deaths mount, and knowing we're not going fast enough. But making ourselves available to those who are worried about the vaccines is URGENTLY important, and this is something we can do right now that will make a difference.
Below are the death data I "promised" earlier in the thread. Much love to all the many wonderful people who have been writing wanting to help & to the staff, loved ones & residents of Canadian long-term care & retirement homes who have been & are still living through a nightmare.
#Canadian #COVID19 deaths, as of Jan 4, 2021
Projected number of #Canadians who will die of #COVID19 in the next 28 days, based on rate of increase in deaths on Jan 4th (VERY rough estimate):

#Canada 5,887
ON: 1,923
QC: 1,757
AB: 1,331
BC: 708
MB: 270
SK: 160
Atlantic 4
North 0
Projected number of #Canadians LIVING IN LTC/RHs who will contract fatal #COVID19 cases in next 28d, based on rate of increase in gen pop cases Jan 4 (estimate). Most deaths won't be posted till Feb

#Canada 7,913
BC: 3,082
QC: 1,806
ON: 1,182
AB: 1,052
SK: 746
MB: 98
Most of these projections are not hugely accurate right now. They're bouncing around a lot for individual provinces b/c we've seen such uneven reporting for the last 2 wks. By mid-next wk we should have more stable numbers.
But the point is that every single vaccination in LTC & RHs in the coming hours, days, weeks is utterly crucial to save thousands of lives.

Everything those of us with specialized skills can do to help support ppl in these settings worried about vaccine safety can save lives.
Over & out. Gotta go do my day job for a bit, but I'll set up a Google form where those who want to volunteer to do this can provide their email (non-publicly). I'll put the link at the end of an email auto-reply I'm sending out for those who want the Zoom link.
We'll need to streamline this process, probably w/ help of the long-suffering, always working staff & volunteers of @COVID_19_Canada & our Volunteer Program Director @KrishanaSankar . But I'm starting inefficiently right now because every hour counts. Please just be patient!
Finally, we'll provide a succinct list of information sources that those volunteering for these sessions can use to quickly look up information if they need it. @crackedscience has already provided some.
We can build a Google doc 1st w/ the resources, then migrate it to pages on the Cracked Science site or covid19resources.ca. Or at #ScienceUpFirst, an independent Canadian anti-COVID19-misinformation that will formally launch in next couple of days: scienceupfirst.com

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More from @MoriartyLab

4 Jan
Do you work, live in or visit a long-term/personal care or retirement home in #Canada, or do you know someone who does?

Are you worried about whether the #COVID19 vaccines are safe, and if you should take them?

If so, I'm starting a nightly Zoom session to answer questions.
If you'd like the link to attend, please email me: tara.moriarty(at)utoronto.ca.

If a lot of people want to attend, my first priority right now is people associated w/ LTC/retirement homes.

Je suis (pas mal) bilingue. Alors, je suis capable de discuter en francais.
I'll do the sessions at 8 p.m. Eastern time, so it's not too late for Atlantic folks, but also late enough for many people on the West coast to be home from shifts. I'll do the sessions on weekends too so that as many people as possible can attend.
Read 9 tweets
3 Jan
Here's how to find my 3 regular threads on C19 deaths in #Canada

Search @MoriartyLab plus one of these phrases:

1. Weekly Thurs/Fri full update: "1 of every #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb"

See next tweet for instructions on finding daily posts
Nightly posts:

Search @MoriartyLab plus 1 of:

2. "Estimated number of lives lost to vaccine-preventable #COVID19 infections": Estimated projected deaths LTC

3. "Canadians could die in next 28 days": Estimated projected deaths (all), based on daily rate of change in deaths
It is crucial that Cdns push REALLY HARD to ensure all residents in long-term care & retirement homes are vaccinated by January 15th.

I have a public Twitter list of ppl posting about #COVID19 in LTC in #Canada. Pls tell me should be on it & use this list to amplify LTC news.
Read 8 tweets
12 Dec 20
One last post for night about number of NEW #COVID19 deaths that will occur in #Canada between today Jan 1 if we don't slow spread NOW.

This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan
1. In last 7 days, #COVID19 deaths grew by 21%.

2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.

3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths

cont...
4. If deaths grow 21% Dec 19-25, by Christmas Day there will be 903 x 1.21=1092 new deaths.

5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.

TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317

#StayHome
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec 20
Dec 11

Tonight's thread on #Canadian #COVID19 deaths, & long-term/personal care/retirement homes

We will have 1000s of deaths before New Year's. Vaccines will take months to protect most at-risk.

Please protect your fellow #Canadians.

If you can, #StayHome
Dec 11

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 112 in AB
1 in 153 in SK
1 in 44 in MB
1 in 36 in ON
1 in 22 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,107 new LTC cases in last 7d
Dec 11

#Canadians

#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

The only larger death tolls: World Wars I & II, 1918-1920 flu & AIDS

This week 746 Cdns died of C19. 1000s more will die before New Year's.

Please prevent more deaths by staying home.
Read 35 tweets
10 Dec 20
Starting thread about how many #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19 in next 3 wks

1. last day Hanukkah (Dec 18)
2. Christmas eve (Dec 24)
3. New Year's eve (Dec 31)

This is so those travelling, socializing indoors in next 3 wks remember the dying during celebrations of hope.
As of Tues Dec 8, #COVID19 deaths across #Canada were increasing 17%/wk.

BUT death rates are accelerating 11%/wk in last month, so this wk they'll increase 19%, next wk 21%, wk after 23%.

Let's do the math to translate into how many people will likely die on Dec 18, 24, 31.
Gah! I forgot to add image. Look at the red line on the graph on the right (Canada).

That shows how fast death rate is changing over time.

A flat line is steady increase by the same number of deaths/day. Upward slope is acceleration (speeding up).

Read 10 tweets
9 Dec 20
Dec 8

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 113 in AB
1 in 161 in SK
1 in 53 in MB
1 in 35 in ON
1 in 21 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns w/ COVID-19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,225 new LTC cases in last 7d Image
Image
Dec 8

#Canada #COVID19

Case fatality rates since start of epidemic Image
Read 32 tweets

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