Thread by @coiledspringcap

#StockMarket WE update. Tough to make much sense out of the last 2 wks given all the rebalancing. Still think Jan is set up for some giveback. #SPX cluster of Demark 13 sells, new combo 13 sell, w/ risk lvl @ 3788. Prop up still active w/ 3907 tgt. maybe quick run to 3900 first?

#StockMarket As I've said repeatedly, tough to be overly bearish above 3630ish & a close below the 20day has been elusive. A close below might shake things up but for now new box B/O w/ measured move to 3800+...

#StockMarket Demark Trendfactor is fantastic for understanding lvls in the indexes that matter. We are currently approaching the 3x lvl @ 3773, nxt lvl up is 3863 & then 3953....

#StockMarket #nasdaq also w/ some Demark exhaustion on the daily - 13 combo/9 sell last wk & new 10 seq count, so a new 13 seq sell could post by weds. Similar to #SPX, the Naz also has a propulsion up tgt of 13240....

#stockmarket Demark trendfactor for the NAZ lvls of interest are 13012, 13330. Similar to the #SPX, the chart does look quite healthy, >12100, hard to be overly bearish....

#StockMarket Naz weekly Demark chart also posted new 9 sell last wk & thus far has ignored the 13 combo sell from 11/13, but risk lvl still in tact @ 13272, which coincidentally is slightly above the propulsion up tgt I cited above...

#StockMarket #SPX weekly Demark chart shows a possible exhaustion count 2 wks away - currently on 11 combo sell....

#stockmarket The aforementioned Demark signals piling up, extreme sentiment readings & the following red flags are increasingly making me cautious in the NT. #SPX OBV starting to show a weakening trend despite #SPX making new highs. If this keeps weakening, i'd be worried....

#StockMarket #SPX MACD still negatively diverging, but could cross + w/ strength this wk so needs to be monitored...

#stockmarket #SPX RSI still negatively diverging but also showing it might erase the divergence with some strength...

#stockmarket #SPX monthly MACD gap is the highest EVER (as far back as I can tell anyway). The momentum is clearly bullish, but usu this sort of excess gets corrected by price or time (last peak in 2/04 didnt see the index make a new high until 11/04)...

#StockMarket #nasdaq is much worse and has been above the dot com mania high since Aug. Keep in mind the last time we saw this much momentum it took the Naz 16 years to make a new high. food for thought....

#StockMarket Net new high list is also negatively diverging while the index is making ATH's. not a great development and could be signaling the end of the move....

#StockMarket #SPX weekly stocks over the 200day w/ Demark overlay, still well above lvls where corrections occur, now w/ combo 13 sell recently and starting to negatively diverge...

#StockMarket McClellan Summation Index w/ Demark overlay w/ recent 13 sells did correctly call the turn in the index but the #SPX kept making new highs - This means the index will catch down or MSI will turn back up, which could post a 9 buy, & pot'l 13 combo buy this wk...

#StockMarket Some dissension on what a recent rising put/call means, which usu is a contrarian signal but coming from such a depressed lvl w/ indexes @ ATH's, i'll take the other side. If this continues to rise, as shown in this chart, it signals retracements...

#StockMarket $VVIX or vol of vol could pot'l post a daily Demark 13 this wk (current 10 count). Last 13 buy saw this index rise +36% & the $VIX +80%. VIX short positioning w/ Demark overlays also with a cluster of 13 buys - 5 of last 5 saw VIX spikes. cheap protection a + idea...

#StockMarket Consumer discretionary vs staples is a good barometer of risk, has been breaking out to new highs which is very bullish, but also w/ a new combo 13 sell likely this wk. 3 of last 4 signaled retracements, 2 of which were meaningful....

#stockmarket #SPX bollinger band chart did close above the upper bound, 2 months in a row, a rare signal and also usually corrected by price over the NT....

#stockmarket but not all bad, Ad/Decline did B/O to all time highs last week, which is never not bullish. And the Smart Money Index back-tested its B/O level = also bullish....

#StockMarket Concl: Lots of reasons to keep me cautious in the NT but tough to be overly bearish unless price confirms all these red flags, which so far it hasnt. That said, my goal is to avoid a costly drawdown, so heavy cash, + hedges, tactical trading w/ tight stops. GL!

@threadreaderapp unroll