Global factory growth ends 2020 close to decade-highs, but supply worsens bit.ly/3bfKA7f
A key contributor to the relatively swift return of robust global #manufacturing growth in the recent months has been a revival in worldwide goods trade. There's some signs of this export boost fading though...
While there were some reports of demand having weakened amid resurgent waves of COVID-19 infections in many parts of the world, notably Europe, output, demand and trade flows were in many cases also constrained by rising supply problems.
With the exception of the supply delays seen at the height of the pandemic in Q2, and the supply issues created by the Fukishima incident in 2011, the incidence of delays in December was the highest since 2004. Prices have risen alongside this shift in supplier pricing power
Companies commonly reported issues with a lack of shipping capacity around the world, including a shortage of containers, and frequently reported bottlenecks as suppliers and logistics firms struggled to meet rising demand from manufacturers.
Having led the global production upturn for two consecutive months up to November, #Brazil was pushed into second place in the global rankings by #Germany, followed by #India. In all three cases, growth rates moderated but remained among the highest seen over the past decade.
The US was the fifth-placed fastest-growing manufacturing economy, behind #Taiwan.
Above average global growth was also seen in the UK. #Japan was noteworthy in seeing its output stabilise, and #China's output growth remained close to decade-highs.
Output in the rest of #Asia meanwhile also grew at a slightly reduced rate, but the expansion was nonetheless the third strongest since April 2011, led by #Taiwan (which reported the fastest growth for a decade).

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More from @WilliamsonChris

24 Jul 20
Flash @IHSMarkitPMI surveys show global economy on road to recovery from pandemic. The G4 economies’ flash #PMI output index rose from 46.5 in June to 51.1 in July, up further from an all-time low of 21.5 in April. Read more at bit.ly/3eTVFZP
@IHSMarkitPMI The statistical historical relationship of the flash PMI with global #GDP suggests that the latest reading is broadly consistent with the global economy growing by 2% on a year ago, up from a signal of 0.2% growth in June.
@IHSMarkitPMI Output has risen in both manufacturing and services on aggregate among the G4 economies (US, UK, Japan, Eurozone)
Read 8 tweets
5 Nov 19
UK economy in worst spell since 2009 as all-sector #PMI signals further contraction. PMI rose from 48.8 in Sep to 49.5 in Oct, but declines have now been recorded in four of the past five months 1/
The Oct PMI indicates GDP q/q rate of fall of -0.1%, similar that signalled by in Q3. Official data are likely to have indicated more robust growth in Q3, the PMI warns that some of this strength reflects a pay-back from a steeper decline than signalled by the surveys in Q2 2/
Manufacturing remains in worst spell since 2012 while construction is in deepest downturn since 2009, with both in recession. Services meanwhile stagnated, improving on the decline seen in September but still suggesting that the sector is stuck in its worst patch since 2012 3/
Read 12 tweets
1 Aug 19
IHS Markit/CIPS UK Manufacturing PMI indicated that output fell in July to an extent not seen since July 2012, and a rate exceeded only twice since early-2009. The index is consistent with manufacturing production falling at a quarterly rate of 1%, or 4% annually. 1/
New orders also fell at one of the steepest seen over the past decade as the past three months has been the worst spell for exports for seven years. Job losses accelerated in response. July saw the 2nd sharpest drop in factory employment since early 2013. 2/
Alongside the cooling pace of manufacturing growth, the survey saw a further easing of prices pressures. The PMI gauge of input costs fell to the lowest since April 2016 while the index of average selling prices slipped to the lowest since June 2016 (former charted here v PPI) 3/
Read 6 tweets

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