Jan 7

1 of every 38 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 56 in BC
1 in 87 in AB
1 in 93 in SK
1 in 35 in MB
1 in 41 in ON
1 in 25 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 13,607 LTC cases in last 28 days
Jan 7

#COVID19 is in top 10 largest mortality events in #Canadian history.

3,545 Cdns died of C19 in the last 28 days.

Nearly 6,000 will likely die in the next 28 days.

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

1 of every 5 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Feb

1 in 4 in BC
1 in 9 in AB
1 in 7 in SK
1 in 5 in MB
1 in 6 in ON
1 in 4 in QC

There are 13,607 LTC cases in last 28 days.

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW!
Jan 7

76% of #Canadians who died of #COVID19 since Feb lived in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes

69% in BC
65% in AB
31% in SK
59% in MB
71% in ON
83% in QC
76% in Atlantic Canada
0% in YK, NWT, NU

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC & RHs NOW!
Jan 7

1 of every 68 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

BC: 1 in 67
AB: 1 in 97
SK: 1 in 100
MB: 1 in 35
ON: 1 in 79
QC: 1 in 57

1 of every 8 Cdns with C19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 13,607 LTC cases in last 28 days
Jan 7

1 of every 8 #Canadians with #COVID19 in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes has died since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

1 in 4 in BC
1 in 10 in AB
1 in 7 in SK
1 in 5 in MB
1 in 8 in ON
1 in 8 in QC

There are 13,607 LTC/RH cases in the last 28 days.
Jan 7

67% of #Canadians who died of #COVID19 since Aug 17 (Wave 2) lived in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes

71% in BC
64% in AB
34% in SK
59% in MB
67% in ON
71% in QC
11% in Atlantic Canada
0% in YK, NWT, NU

We MUST vaccinate ppl in LTC/RHs NOW! Every hour counts.
Jan 7

Since Feb

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of C19 in other regions:

31: QC
11: ON
16: MB
5: SK
9: AB
6: BC
1: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn who died of C19 in LTC/RH,
14 died of C19 in LTC in rest of #Canada

We need @csc_canada_
Jan 7

#COVID19 #Canada

Per capita DEATHS by province since Feb, compared to peer high income countries with populations >20M
Jan 7

Since Feb

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian living in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes who DIED of #COVID19
this many people in LTC/RHs died of C19 in other regions:

35: QC
10: ON
13: MB
2: SK
7: AB
5: BC
0: North
14: All of #Canada outside Atlantic provinces
Jan 7

#COVID19 #Canada

LONG-TERM/ PERSONAL CARE & RETIREMENT HOMES

Per capita DEATHS by province since beginning of epidemic.

We MUST vaccinate everyone living in LTC/RHs NOW! Every hour counts.
Jan 7

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl died of C19 in other regions:

89: QC
39: ON
140: MB
36: SK
61: AB
41: BC
7: North

For every 1 Atlantic Cdn who died of C19 in LTC/RH,
*322* died of C19 in LTC in the rest of #Canada
Jan 7

#COVID19 #Canada

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

Per capita DEATHS by province, compared to peer high income countries with populations >20M

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

For every 1 Atlantic #Canadian in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes who DIED of #COVID19
this many ppl in LTC/RHs died of C19 in other regions:

569: QC
238: ON
744: MB
110: SK
352: AB
114: BC
0: North
322: #Canada outside Atlantic
Jan 7

#COVID19 #Canada

Since Aug 17 (Wave 2)

LONG-TERM/ PERSONAL CARE & RETIREMENT HOMES

Per capita DEATHS by province

We MUST vaccinate everyone in LTC/RHs NOW!
Jan 7

#COVID19 #Canada

Hospitalizations/100K

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
covidstrategicchoices.ca
Jan 7

#COVID19 cases in #Canadian long-term/ personal care & retirement homes in Wave 2 (since Aug 17)

We MUST vaccinate NOW!

1 in 5 of the 13,607 people in LTC/RHs diagnosed w/ C19 in the last 28 days will die or have already died.

Every HOUR of vaccination delay costs lives
Jan 7

For every SINGLE DAY #COVID19 vaccinations are delayed, 152 #Canadians in long-term/ personal care & retirement homes may die

Estimated vaccine-preventable LTC/RH deaths from cases contracted in next 28 days:

#Canada: 4,238
ON 1,981
QC 1,120
BC 419
SK 311
AB 294
MB 113 Estimates based on rate of change in total cases on Jan 7 (7
Jan 7

Estimated total #COVID19 deaths in #Canada over next 28 days, based on % increase in deaths on Jan 7 (7-day rolling avg)

#Canada 5,909
ON 2,084
QC 1,875
AB 1,246
BC 579
MB 230
SK 138
Atlantic 5
North 0

We need the #CanadianShield NOW! @csc_canada_
Finally, the following tweets show #Canadians that the tragedy of this epidemic is not only deaths (& long-term symptoms & disability).

It's also the tragedy of MANY thousands of Canadians who are mourning & keeping vigil for the sick.

We must advocate for them.
Jan 7

#Canada #COVID19

🛑3,545 #Canadians died of C19 in last 28 days
🛑4,592 are hospitalized
🖤~106,000 are mourning
🖤~138,000 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

#Canada #COVID19

🛑1,165 Quebecois(es) died of C19 in last 28 days
🛑1,380 are hospitalized
🖤~35,000 are mourning
🖤~41,000 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

#Canada #COVID19

🛑1,013 Ontarians died of C19 in last 28 days
🛑1,472 are hospitalized
🖤~30,000 are mourning
🖤~44,000 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

#Canada #COVID19

🛑279 Manitobans died of C19 in last 28 days
🛑319 are hospitalized
🖤~8,000 are mourning
🖤~10,000 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

#Canada #COVID19

🛑106 Saskatchewan residents died of C19 in last 28 days
🛑176 are hospitalized
🖤~3,000 are mourning
🖤~5,000 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

#Canada #COVID19

🛑564 Albertans died of C19 in last 28 days
🛑871 are hospitalized
🖤~17,000 are mourning
🖤~26,000 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Jan 7

#Canada #COVID19

🛑414 British Columbians died of C19 in last 28 days
🛑372 are hospitalized
🖤~12,000 are mourning
🖤~11,000 are keeping vigil for the hospitalized

We need the #CanadianShield @csc_canada_
Data, with huge thanks: @NoLore @RyersonNIA @covid_canada @OurWorldInData

Thank you to all #Canadians who protected others since Feb by limiting physical contact with others as much as possible.

Thank you to all caring for our most vulnerable, especially staff in LTC/RHs.
Here are LTC/RH cases reported for each province over last 28 days.

Remember, reporting for this sector is very slow & doesn't include RHs in some places. These numbers are likely at LEAST 2 wks behind.

Canada 13,607
ON 5,055
QC 4,011
AB 3,196
BC 685
MB 445
SK 215
Here's the website for #CanadianShield. Twitter handle is @csc_canada_

covidstrategicchoices.ca
crap, crap, crap. For ON LTC/RH cases I forgot to credit @Sue_Innovates who is doing Herculean work tracking this. And @IacovosMichael who does the graphical reporting with Sue (and have done since the start of the epidemic).
To everyone who lives, works, is an essential caregiver in #Canadian long-term care, retirement homes

If you have ANY questions about safety of the #COVID19 vaccines, we (I, doctors, pharmacists, scientists) have nightly Zoom Q&A sessions (see below).

You can be anonymous!

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More from @MoriartyLab

5 Jan
#Canadian scientists, science communicators, HCPs who vaccinate and is scientifically knowledgeable about #COVID19 vaccines

Are you frustrated by slow vaccination rates, vaccines being thrown out? Do you want to help now?

There one very big way we can help now.
Many HCWs scheduled to be vaccinated now are nervous about the vaccine and would like to be able to talk to knowledgeable experts and have supportive, non-judgemental discussions.
It is incredibly important that we provide support and information and conversation about the COVID vaccines to people who live, work in & visit long-term care and retirement homes in Canada. And we need to do it NOW.
Read 25 tweets
4 Jan
Do you work, live in or visit a long-term/personal care or retirement home in #Canada, or do you know someone who does?

Are you worried about whether the #COVID19 vaccines are safe, and if you should take them?

If so, I'm starting a nightly Zoom session to answer questions.
If you'd like the link to attend, please email me: tara.moriarty(at)utoronto.ca.

If a lot of people want to attend, my first priority right now is people associated w/ LTC/retirement homes.

Je suis (pas mal) bilingue. Alors, je suis capable de discuter en francais.
I'll do the sessions at 8 p.m. Eastern time, so it's not too late for Atlantic folks, but also late enough for many people on the West coast to be home from shifts. I'll do the sessions on weekends too so that as many people as possible can attend.
Read 9 tweets
3 Jan
Here's how to find my 3 regular threads on C19 deaths in #Canada

Search @MoriartyLab plus one of these phrases:

1. Weekly Thurs/Fri full update: "1 of every #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb"

See next tweet for instructions on finding daily posts
Nightly posts:

Search @MoriartyLab plus 1 of:

2. "Estimated number of lives lost to vaccine-preventable #COVID19 infections": Estimated projected deaths LTC

3. "Canadians could die in next 28 days": Estimated projected deaths (all), based on daily rate of change in deaths
It is crucial that Cdns push REALLY HARD to ensure all residents in long-term care & retirement homes are vaccinated by January 15th.

I have a public Twitter list of ppl posting about #COVID19 in LTC in #Canada. Pls tell me should be on it & use this list to amplify LTC news.
Read 8 tweets
12 Dec 20
One last post for night about number of NEW #COVID19 deaths that will occur in #Canada between today Jan 1 if we don't slow spread NOW.

This is back of the envelope math. Most deaths by Jan 1 will occur from cases contracted before today. What we do now will change deaths in Jan
1. In last 7 days, #COVID19 deaths grew by 21%.

2. 746 #Canadians died of C19 in the last 7 days.

3. If deaths grow by 21% next wk, by the last night of Hanukkah, there will be 746 x 1.21= 903 new deaths

cont...
4. If deaths grow 21% Dec 19-25, by Christmas Day there will be 903 x 1.21=1092 new deaths.

5. If deaths grow 21% Dec 26-Jan 1, by New Year's Day there will be 1092 x 1.21=1322 new deaths.

TOTAL NEW #Canadian #COVID19 deaths fr Dec 12-Jan 1:
903 + 1092 + 1322 = 3317

#StayHome
Read 4 tweets
12 Dec 20
Dec 11

Tonight's thread on #Canadian #COVID19 deaths, & long-term/personal care/retirement homes

We will have 1000s of deaths before New Year's. Vaccines will take months to protect most at-risk.

Please protect your fellow #Canadians.

If you can, #StayHome
Dec 11

1 of every 34 #Canadians with #COVID19 has died since Feb

1 in 71 in BC
1 in 112 in AB
1 in 153 in SK
1 in 44 in MB
1 in 36 in ON
1 in 22 in QC

1 of every 5 Cdns with C19 in long-term, personal care & retirement homes has died

There are 3,107 new LTC cases in last 7d
Dec 11

#Canadians

#COVID19 is in top 5 largest mortality events in Canadian history.

The only larger death tolls: World Wars I & II, 1918-1920 flu & AIDS

This week 746 Cdns died of C19. 1000s more will die before New Year's.

Please prevent more deaths by staying home.
Read 35 tweets
10 Dec 20
Starting thread about how many #Canadians will likely die of #COVID19 in next 3 wks

1. last day Hanukkah (Dec 18)
2. Christmas eve (Dec 24)
3. New Year's eve (Dec 31)

This is so those travelling, socializing indoors in next 3 wks remember the dying during celebrations of hope.
As of Tues Dec 8, #COVID19 deaths across #Canada were increasing 17%/wk.

BUT death rates are accelerating 11%/wk in last month, so this wk they'll increase 19%, next wk 21%, wk after 23%.

Let's do the math to translate into how many people will likely die on Dec 18, 24, 31.
Gah! I forgot to add image. Look at the red line on the graph on the right (Canada).

That shows how fast death rate is changing over time.

A flat line is steady increase by the same number of deaths/day. Upward slope is acceleration (speeding up).

Read 10 tweets

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