First, CDC links pandemic spread with f2f campuses:
"university counties with in-person instruction (n = 79) experienced a 56% increase in incidence, comparing the 21-day periods before and after classes started."
56%!
Second, CDC links teaching online to *lower* pandemic spread:
"U.S. counties with large colleges or universities with remote instruction (n = 22) experienced a 17.9% decrease in incidence"
Third, counties did a bit better wrt COVID if they didn't have a campus there.
"Counties without large colleges or universities (n = 3,009) experienced a 6% decrease in incidence during similar time frames."
Did you hear that?
"In-person instruction at colleges and universities was associated with increased county-level COVID-19 incidence and percentage test positivity."
As I've asked before, what happens to #highered reputation if people see campuses as implementing actions *that spread the pandemic*?
How do we feel about this?
"university counties with in-person instruction experienced a 56% increase in incidence and 30% increase in hotspot occurrence as well as increases in COVID-19-related testing and test percentage positivity."
It wasn't teaching as such, says the CDC, but residential living that seems to be the real problem:
"Congregate living settings at colleges and universities were linked to transmissions "
Chief of DC police:
-recounts afternoon's events
-protestors were violent towards cops
-"a riot was declared"
-one civilian shot; MPD to investigate
-everyone: get off the streets
To begin with, US #HigherEducation enrollment will probably be lower. It'll vary by institution and which scenario they follow (bryanalexander.org/scenarios/earl…), and some may enjoy growth, but overall should tick down compared w/fall 2020.
(2/n)
At the same time, many costs will go up.
Think about what's likely involved in opening up a campus: contact tracing, surveillance, doing perimeter temperature checks, frequent testing (assuming that's possible), and whatever "deep cleaning" means for a school.
I'm not sure how far down total enrollment will go.
There are lots of pressures:
-fear of reinfection for f2f classes
-suspicion of online class quality
-circulation of bad stories
It'll be uneven.
Community colleges, vo tech, some state schools could see an influx.