#StockMarket WE update. #SPX as expected we rallied to my first target lvl above 3800, derived from a measured move off the box breakout. Some consolidation is likely here or even a retracement. RSI poked above 70 for the first time since Aug...
#stockmarket New Seq Demark 13 sell possibly this wk (earliest weds). Propulsion up tgt of 3907 still in view. maybe we hit the tgt while posting the new 13 sell? Reminder the propulsion lvls can act as magnets but also exhaustion lvls. Last 2 13 sells saw short +2% drawdowns...
#stockmarket weekly #SPX could post a Demark combo 13 sell this wk and a sequential 13 sell next wk....
#stockmarket #nasdaq Demark propulsion up tgt almost reached on Friday (32 pts away - 13240) w/ 12 Seq count & likely 13 sell printing tmrw. Last 13 seq sell saw an ensuing 12% drawdown - ouch! ...
#stockmarket #nasdaq weekly chart now w/ a Demark 9-13-9 sell to go along w/ pot'l daily exhaustion counts. lots of confluence happening....
#stockmarket #dowjones also now w/ a new Demark combo 13 sell to go along with the seq 13 sell from 1/4. Weekly chart just posted a 9 sell as well....
#stockmarket keep in mind that the last 5 days have recorded quite a few Demark sell signals in the market. my counts show: NYSE w/ 179 Seq 13 sells & 195 9 sells. Nasdaq w/ 283 Seq 13 sells and 127 9 sells. starting to pile up...
#stockmarket I've illustrated a # of times how stretched the indices have become, & here is more substantiation. #nasdaq quarterly BB chart now shows +upper BB for 3Q's in a row. Thats NEVER happened. Last attempt was during the Internet bubble which resulted in a 78% drawdown...
#stockmarket #SPX not quite as stretched but never has it ended above the upper BB for 2Q's in a row as it appears now. Last attempt was in Q4 '18 which was sold down very hard. Will history repeat? ...
#stockmarket Net New highs exploded last wk, which is bullish, but is it too bullish? Last time we were this elevated was on Jan 12, 2018. Deja Vu? ...
#stockmarket Smart Money Index is something i've discussed numerous times, still struggling w/ some negative divergence & approaching a big lvl....
#stockmarket Staples vs SPY ( $XLP vs $SPY) ratio is a barometer of risk w/ new Demark combo 13 buy. Last 2x this signal appeared we saw #SPX retracements....
#stockmarket $VVIX or vol of vol, could post its first Demark Seq 13 buy as early as tomorrow. Last 13 buy saw this rise 35% and the $VIX 80%. can't say it enough, buy cheap protection...
#stockmarket here is another example of how stretched we are per valuation basis. mkt cap as a % of GDP @ ATH's...
#StockMarket Lastly, something I posted last wk. Maybe time for the Semi rotation to revert back into SW. here is the chart of the ratio showing a new Demark 9 buy that printed on Fri. very good history of reactions & the SW stocks had a very good day....
#stockmarket CONCL: tough to be overly bearish as long as we hold +3720 & the 20 day remains defended. A close below could open the door for momentum to come out of the mkt. Given the aforementioned, I will be paring down risk this wk, adding to hedges, & trade quicker...

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with CoiledSpringCapital

CoiledSpringCapital Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @coiledspringcap

8 Jan
#stockmarket amazing strength this wk in the market, but Jan giddiness over a new administration starts to run into problems mid month & trades off, historically. In previous WE updates i cited tgts btw 3800-3900 and we are here. I likely will be trimming and selling today. GL Image
#stockmarket to further this comment. Ysty was epic, but i dont want to give a bunch back so i sold some strength and raised stops. my feeling is next week will be more tricky so plan accordingly.
#stockmarket nasty 30 min candle on the $QQQ I hope some of you sold strength Image
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
#StockMarket WE update. Tough to make much sense out of the last 2 wks given all the rebalancing. Still think Jan is set up for some giveback. #SPX cluster of Demark 13 sells, new combo 13 sell, w/ risk lvl @ 3788. Prop up still active w/ 3907 tgt. maybe quick run to 3900 first?
#StockMarket As I've said repeatedly, tough to be overly bearish above 3630ish & a close below the 20day has been elusive. A close below might shake things up but for now new box B/O w/ measured move to 3800+...
#StockMarket Demark Trendfactor is fantastic for understanding lvls in the indexes that matter. We are currently approaching the 3x lvl @ 3773, nxt lvl up is 3863 & then 3953....
Read 22 tweets
27 Dec 20
#stockmarket WE update - Holiday short version. $SPY shows 2 broken rising wedges but minimal damage. Nasty pierce of the 20day & support last wk but strong close & no follow thru. Resiliency matters & for now bulls in control. Currently 3 distribution days in Dec...
#stockmarket A close below $364ish would shake things up a bit I suspect but elusive at this point. $SPY weekly looks quite healthy to me....
#stockmarket #SPX recent Demark 13 seq sell did mark the recent swing high, now on day 3 of buy set up. Remember, 13's can signal pot'l trend change or sometimes just stall the trend - for now its stalled. Do we continue lower to complete the 9 buy or price flip back up & resume?
Read 13 tweets
20 Dec 20
#stockmarket WE update. Last WE I mentioned I was cautiously optimistic but could see some weakness in 2H of the wk as Demark could post a Seq 13 sell on the #SPX. Friday was weak but somewhat contained. I also mentioned that Propulsion up was still active w/ 3907 tgt....
#stockmarket Momentum tgts signify trend continuation but also could represent exhaustion points. The Russell also w/ new Demark 13 sells on the weekly chart to go w/ a new round of daily sell signals....
#stockmarket #NASDAQ could post a new combo 13 sell this wk (pot'l weds) & a seq 13 sell next wk (pot'l Tues), but much like the #SPX, has a propulsion up tgt in play of 13240....
Read 16 tweets
13 Dec 20
#stockmarket WE update. Last wk I mentioned to be careful adding new money to the mkt, which was the correct call as we did see weakness. I mentioned watching the $DXY for signals as it did move off the lows. But 20day save on Fri above key lvls for #SPX is bullish for now....
#stockmarket As I've mentioned in previous updates, $ spikes are equity bearish & last wk we did see #DXY move off the lows. Whether this a minor bounce or bigger countertrend move is yet TBD. $DXY bounce from OS RSI now above 14day SMA & day 3 of price flip; needs to be watched.
#stockmarket I also discussed in last WE update that key global mkts were also flashing Demark exhaustion signals & something that could hurt US stock performance - see 5 day performance of major indices....
Read 15 tweets
6 Dec 20
#stockmarket WE update. crazy bullish euphoria is all that comes to mind. But that doesn't mean it has to end. I think we are stretched which can be resolved by time or price. >3645 tough to be overly bearish, but putting new money to work up here seems foolish....
#stockmarket #SPX correlation to USD has been strong & previous spikes this yr have seen equity dislocation. This is the most important thing to watch IMO given how lopsided this trade has become. Demark has a 13 Seq/Combo & 9 buy in place/ w/ prop down tgt of 90.15 for $DXY...
#stockmarket the $DXY has closed below the lower bound 4x since the GFC ('08 it happened many times, Jan '18, this yr in July/Aug, Nov/Dec). As illustrated this usu is short lived. why would it be different this time? ...
Read 23 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!