The 17+1 flop THREAD
1/6
Yesterday’s #China-#CEEC summit was an embarrassment for #Beijing and, to a large extent, a waste of time for Europeans. Nearly a decade after this format was put in place with a lot of fanfare, it’s worth looking back and reflecting what went wrong.
1/6
Yesterday’s #China-#CEEC summit was an embarrassment for #Beijing and, to a large extent, a waste of time for Europeans. Nearly a decade after this format was put in place with a lot of fanfare, it’s worth looking back and reflecting what went wrong.
2/6
There are five flawed assumptions the 16+1 format (17+1 since 2019) was based on.
1. #CEECs’ expectations that #China would be THE source of #FDI capital and a market for their #exports.
The reality:
- 🇨🇳 loans for 🇨🇳 contractors vs limited FDI;
- Growing #trade deficits.
There are five flawed assumptions the 16+1 format (17+1 since 2019) was based on.
1. #CEECs’ expectations that #China would be THE source of #FDI capital and a market for their #exports.
The reality:
- 🇨🇳 loans for 🇨🇳 contractors vs limited FDI;
- Growing #trade deficits.
3/6
2. Conspicuous discrepancy between the - supposedly - regional nature of the format and #China's preference for bilateral relations. The #WesternBalkans were “more equal” than others, which led to disenchantment and frustration in #EU member states in #CentralEasternEurope.
2. Conspicuous discrepancy between the - supposedly - regional nature of the format and #China's preference for bilateral relations. The #WesternBalkans were “more equal” than others, which led to disenchantment and frustration in #EU member states in #CentralEasternEurope.
4/6
3. #China's initial assumption that cooperation with #CEECs could be based on a template similar to the one used in the developing world, e.g. in #Asia and #Africa, i.e. the Chinese way of doing business, with low environmental and social standards, and "whatever it takes".
3. #China's initial assumption that cooperation with #CEECs could be based on a template similar to the one used in the developing world, e.g. in #Asia and #Africa, i.e. the Chinese way of doing business, with low environmental and social standards, and "whatever it takes".
5/6
4. #China's certainty (sic) that, being former communist countries, #CEECs would embrace it as a political ally and a model for socio-economic development. The #BalticWay or the Prague #LennonWall emulated in the #HongKong riots came as a shock to the #CCP govt in Beijing.
4. #China's certainty (sic) that, being former communist countries, #CEECs would embrace it as a political ally and a model for socio-economic development. The #BalticWay or the Prague #LennonWall emulated in the #HongKong riots came as a shock to the #CCP govt in Beijing.
6/6
5. #Beijing clearly misread the #security concerns of many #CEECs, notably in relation to #Russia. Being unable to act as a security provider (unlike the #US), #China was relegated to the position of - in principle - a major int'l actor, but of limited regional relevance.
5. #Beijing clearly misread the #security concerns of many #CEECs, notably in relation to #Russia. Being unable to act as a security provider (unlike the #US), #China was relegated to the position of - in principle - a major int'l actor, but of limited regional relevance.
6/6
5. #Beijing clearly misread the #security concerns of many #CEECs, notably in relation to #Russia. Being unable to act as a security provider (unlike the #US), #China was relegated to the position of - in principle - a major int'l actor, but of limited regional relevance.
5. #Beijing clearly misread the #security concerns of many #CEECs, notably in relation to #Russia. Being unable to act as a security provider (unlike the #US), #China was relegated to the position of - in principle - a major int'l actor, but of limited regional relevance.
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