Thread by @Aparna_Pande

Thoroughly enjoyed @HudsonInstitute discn w/ @ShivshankaMenon & Jayadeva Ranade on #India #China relations / 🧵below w/ key quotes by each panelist 1/n

https://twitter.com/HudsonInstitute/status/1363869908329582592

Quesn to both panelists: How does the #Indian strategic community view #China? What impact have the recurrent border standoffs and China’s deepening presence in South Asia had on India’s China policy? 2/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "Opinion in strategic community in India has turned increasingly negative on China & not just because of what happened on the border last summer or the situation right now. Several factors that have brought stress into the relationship." 3/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "Since 2012 China’s active presence in South Asia, stronger strategic commitment to #Pakistan, willingness to play a role in internal politics of #Nepal & #SriLanka , increasing military buildup in #IOR ... 4/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "... & what is seen in India as China’s open opposition to India’s rise, #NSG issue, seat on #UNSC. Big difference in way China used to handle these issues earlier. eg 2008 she went along w/ consensus re NSG, by 2015 willing to be seen as opposing it." 4/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "Clear that deterrence broke down on border in 2020 but that the overall balance between two countries has shifted over last 3 decades & there is a more assertive Chinese behavior not just in #South Asia but Asia ... 5/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "... Fundamental condition for peace & tranquility on border was torn up by China and its actions along the border last year. Need a series of difficult conversations on core interests, about how we adjust or manage our differences & how we handle issues" 6/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "China's challenges are it is managing a difficult transition & its structural competition w/ #US. India has choices to make. India regards US as an essential partner not only in our own transformation but as the only global superpower" 7/n

#Ranade "India China relationship has always been tainted with suspicion as far as India’s security establishment was concerned. Rest of the establishment was managing the relationship. Things changed w/ #XiJinping ... 8/n

#Ranade #XiJinping came in w/ firm commitment to #CCP. China’s aim is twofold: first, establish itself as the premier power in Asia or Indo Pacific, & second to take on and rival if not surpass the US. India is in the way of this Chinese goal ... 9/n

#Ranade "It is not a question of trust being hurt, but a question of absent trust. Frankly trust doesn’t exist, we are trying to put it in place. We will need to build a new relationship and this makes things harder." 10/n

Quesn to @ShivshankaMenon on recurring border standoffs & “Chinese playbook that we’ve seen before when they have attempted two steps forward and one step back.” 11/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "What China has done in the past on our border & in #SCS is to change the ground situation in their favor & then negotiate on the margins. Negotiate on what the other person has lost, give back little, offer diplomatic talks, & end up net gainers." 12/n

Quesn to @ShivshankaMenon : So you don’t agree with those who say that the recurrent border standoffs are the work of a ‘rogue PLA commander’? 13/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "If you believe that then you have to believe that tomorrow they can lob nuclear weapons as some mad commander can do that. This is a political army, has been from the beginning. Don’t forget, this is a party that became an army within 7 years of founding.."14/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "Party and army are one. Would never allow a rogue commander because represents a threat to leadership. #TenTwolinestruggles Also, the so-called rogue commanders are the ones who get promoted each time and then come back to the theatre." 15/n

Quesn to #Ranade: was it an intelligence failure? was it an analysis failure? were we not paying sufficient attention to the China challenge? 16/n

#Ranade "Standard refrain in India: intelligence failure. Intelligence is there, there are often been problems analyzing & then acting upon. Many outside experts had said things were not good &, nothing wud come out of #Wuhan & #Mammallapuram summits ..." 17/n

#Ranade ". Realization China presents to us a diplomatic, military, economic & environmental threat has not yet percolated down in the system even today. Disengagement agreement is limited, narrow & could be temporary but tentative baby step forward." 18/n

Quesn to @ShivshankaMenon & #Ranade: How do we build the next generation of China watchers in India? 19/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "24K Indians who speak Mandarin, 108 Institutes that work on China. but you cannot yet make a career in Chinese studies. Need to build an ecosystem to support this. 1960s crisis led to first gen of China watchers, this crisis may lead to next" 20/n

#Ranade "Think tanks & institutes that work on China need nurturing, resources, and support so that there is a career opportunity in that field." 21/n

.@ShivshankaMenon "India has a larger #China problem: both continental & maritime. #IndoPacific & #Quad help India in the latter domain, not the #Eurasian landmass. #US is an essential partner for building capabilities & transforming India." End/n