#Thread on #TamilNaduElections2021 - before I begin, trolls pls stay off my timeline, you are very boring. This is only for those interested in ground reports. My many district reporter friends have contributed to this thread, so please thank them in your head. (1/n)
1. @arivalayam sweeping Delta and Chennai (3-4 seats in Chennai may be won by @AIADMKOfficial ). This is their traditional stronghold.
2. @AIADMKOfficial sweeping Kongu belt and northern TN Vanniyar belt. This is due to larger than expected Vanniyar consolidation. (2/n)
2. @AIADMKOfficial sweeping Kongu belt and northern TN Vanniyar belt. This is due to larger than expected Vanniyar consolidation. (2/n)
3. It is southern TN that will decide this election. Only one seat could be won by #AMMK - Usilampatti. If @AIADMKOfficial manages to win 50% of the seats in southern TN, they will form government. From my discussions with locals, this seems like a possibility. (3/n)
4. In most seats, winning margins will be between 1000 and 5000 votes. That's how close this election is. Women came out to vote in large numbers in west and south - that's advantage @AIADMKOfficial . However DKV did not consolidate as much as expected. AMMK is a factor. (4/n)
5. Expect a star candidate to come 3rd. Expect a leader of a party to lose to a minister.
6. Among minorities Muslims consolidated towards DMK. But Christians did not consolidate. They voted according to local factors/candidates. (5/n)
6. Among minorities Muslims consolidated towards DMK. But Christians did not consolidate. They voted according to local factors/candidates. (5/n)
7. Overall, each seat has been fought hard and wins will be close. But one party will form government with 120+ seats. Depending on performance in south TN, it could be either DMK or AIADMK. There is no sweep. (n/n)
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