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Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 Profile picture
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14 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
OCBC Bank 1/4: Overall, the #DXY index was left south of the 92.00 support. This leaves the near-term technical picture bearish for the broad USD, with the immediate target at the 55-day MA (91.52). This round of USD weakness is EUR- and JPY-led, rather than cyclicals-led as in
OCBC 2/4: the case in early-Feb & mid-March. Overlay this with resurgence of confirmed cases in places like India & Canada, & the J&J vaccine set-back, this lack of reaction from the cyclicals may be a reflection that the vaccination / recovery positives have been fully priced in
OCBC Bank 3/4: Large short positions for the likes of AUD and CAD were pared among the non-commercial accounts were pared in 2H 2020, but there is no sign of net longs building this year. Overall, there is room to question the structural global recovery / weak USD theme.
OCBC Bank 4/4: Our baseline expectation is still a pro-USD one beyond the immediate term.

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Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 Profile picture
14 Apr
UBS 1/4: Don't expect the #volatility lull to last.
Wall Street’s most prominent gauge of investor anxiety, #VIX index of implied stock #volatility, closed at a fresh pandemic-era low near 16.7 last week. But we see reasons to expect periodic bouts of higher volatility near term
UBS 2/4: First, investors are likely to be torn between optimism over accelerating growth and worries over higher inflation. Second, optimism over the course of the pandemic is being tested by the spread of new variants of the virus.
UBS 3/4: Finally, we expect volatility to be driven by increased institutional and retail activity in the options market, along with the increased share of growth stocks in major indexes. However, investors can take advantage of this backdrop.
Read 4 tweets
Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 Profile picture
14 Apr
ING Bank 1/5: Latest #eurozone production figures are weak, but the future looks bright
Industrial production in the eurozone is being held up by input shortages at the moment. This will lead to weaker growth in the first quarter, but underlying demand is strong and that makes us
ING Bank 2/5: upbeat about prospects for the bloc as it reopens later in the year.
February industrial production showed a decline of 1% compared to January. Production had fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels at the start of the year but dipped back later.
ING Bank 3/5: The decline will mean that the manufacturing contribution to GDP may disappoint a bit given the strong performance seen in the fourth quarter, adding to our view of another GDP contraction in 1Q before the economic rebound starts.
Read 5 tweets
Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 Profile picture
14 Apr
Deutsche Bank 1/4: Talking of #vaccines, while we went into yesterday expecting that the CPI reading would dominate attention, the bigger news story instead turned out to be on the pandemic, as the US authorities recommended that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine be paused
Deutsche Bank 2/4: after there were 6 reported cases of a severe blood clot. Though this was among a total number of over 6.8 million who’d received the vaccine in the US, all of the cases happened in women aged between 18 and 48, with symptoms occurring 6-13d after #vaccination
Deutsche Bank 3/4: We should hear more on the issue shortly, with the CDC saying that they’d convene a meeting of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices today to look further at the cases. Nevertheless, the move is already having ramifications elsewhere,
Read 4 tweets
Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 Profile picture
14 Apr
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.

Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.

All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Read 5 tweets
Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 Profile picture
14 Apr
Citibank 1/7: US #CPI strong on transitory components & solid shelter prices
Citi analysts take – the strong increase in March US core CPI released overnight is in line with upside surprises expected in the coming months as a number of components normalize.
Citibank 2/7: Key shelter prices in CPI however show signs of potential earlier-than-expected firming with another solid increase in owners’ equivalent rent (OER), the key shelter price component of consumer price inflation and the largest share of CPI.
Citibank 3/7: Overall, US core CPI in March rises 0.339%MoM, stronger than consensus for 0.2%. Meanwhile core CPI YoY rises to 1.6% and headline CPI gains 0.6%MoM on strength in energy (+5%) and food (up a modest 0.1%).
Read 7 tweets
Francesc Riverola - FXStreet.com 🎗 Profile picture
14 Apr
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURGBP not maintains a base above .8643/65 as well as a bullish “reversal week” and we look for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.

#GBPUSD above 1.3783 would see a minor base complete to suggest the trend is shifting sideways.
Read 5 tweets

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