Bitcoin vs Gold: Let’s take my hypothetical exercise (
https://twitter.com/TimmerFidelity/status/1382026394541174787) one step further by bringing gold into the mix. (THREAD)
Let’s take the above models and convert them into projected market values. The gray line shows the market cap of above-ground gold. We only have data through 2020, but I took the liberty of extrapolating this series using two simple assumptions. /2
The first is that gold production continues at the same rate of 100 million oz, as it has done in recent years. The second is that the price of gold will advance by the same 8% CAGR that it has since it started to trade freely in the early 1970s. /3
Against the backdrop of the money supply growing by 10% per year, this also seems to me a reasonable assumption. Based on these two assumptions I was able to draw the gray line into the future, and compare it to the bitcoin model, shown in the chart below. /4 
Currently, gold is worth $11 trillion and bitcoin is $1.1 trillion, which means that bitcoin is around 10% of gold’s market value. /5
Based on the above assumptions, the market value of gold could be $14.1 trillion in 2024, at which time bitcoin could be at $2.3 trillion based on the demand model. That’s almost a double in terms of the bitcoin-to-gold ratio. /6
Based on the above chart, bitcoin could reach parity to gold in 2026 based on the S2F model and in 2032 based on the demand model. /7
In my view, rather than view bitcoin vs gold as a race between two asset classes, I prefer to view them collectively as different players on the same team. /8
We’re living in an era of fiscal/monetary expansion that’s rarely been seen—when those regimes did occur they were uniformly bullish for gold. With btc emerging as an aspiring form of digital gold, in my view, it might make sense to view them as part of the same asset class. /END
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