1/7 In 2017 #Trump answering a similar question did not reject outright the questioner’s assertion that #Putin was a killer, but managed to dilute his answer. My current piece about «Putin is a killer» from president #Biden interview to @abcnews carnegie.ru/commentary/841…
2/7 Biden’s blunt assessment was meant to show the rest of the world that the US is returning to world leadership based on high moral standards. This should be met with particular approval by U.S. allies who are under pressure from Russia bit.ly/3tPfU2K
3/7 As Biden was one of the architects of the “reset” with Russia during Barack Obama’s first presidential term, it’s important for him to make it clear that no amount of common interest or work on specific policy areas means a new reset is in the offing bit.ly/3tPfU2K
4/7 It’s key for President Biden to distance himself not only from ex-president Trump, but also from his own vice presidency of a decade ago bit.ly/3tPfU2K
5/7 To call a foreign leader a “killer” is, without a doubt, an escalation. But Biden likely thinks it will show Putin that such behavior will no longer work bit.ly/3tPfU2K
6/7 Ever since Putin’s speech to the Munich Security
Conference in 2007, escalation has been one of the most important weapons in Putin’s arsenal. Now Biden has acted in the same spirit: dishing out harsh truths without getting bogged down in diplomatic niceties
7/7 Despite the fact that this exchange of remarks looks like a serious deterioration in the U.S.-Russian relationship, both sides will actually go away satisfied with how they conducted themselves bit.ly/3tPfU2K

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More from @baunov

25 Feb
1/4 On #Armenia: the post-Soviet space has seen everything from wars, revolutions and palace coups to dictatorships, hybrid regimes and the hereditary handover of power. Everything—except a classic military coup.
2/4If the army ousts Armenian Prime Minister Nikol #Pashinyan and appoints a new government—provisional or otherwise—to maintain order until new elections, it will be the first genuine military coup in the post-Soviet space.
3/4 #Armenia would join the ranks of an exclusive club of countries in the Middle East and Asia in which the army performs the role of a political moderator and overseer.
Read 4 tweets
17 Feb
1/7 THREAD #Navalny is very successful at reaching out to and inspiring young Russians. But #Russia’s population is ageing.

My try to answer the questions, where is Russian #protest everybody was closely following just one week ago. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…
2/7 The idea of dignity as a trigger for political protest in Russia is complicated in #Navalny case by the fact that for so many Russians, dignity has long been expressed in the form of resistance to the West. carnegie.ru/commentary/838…
3/7 There is huge inertia within Russian society. Most people sense that the regime is not, in fact, on the verge of collapse, and that mass street protests are unlikely to accelerate the end of the #Putin era carnegie.ru/commentary/838…
Read 7 tweets
2 Feb
1/4 I had mistakenly thought that with the three and a half year sentence #Navalny would be in prison during the Russian presidential elections in 2024.
2/4 But since the previously served year of home arrest counts toward the sentence, he should be released just before the elections in March 2024. Could it be a sign that Putin plans to leave by 2024 and organize snap elections, transferring power to a successor?
3/4 Unfortunately, there will always be the possibility of adding to Navalny's sentence at a later date. At the same time, it is unclear what would complicate the transfer of power more – Navalny imprisoned or free.
Read 4 tweets
25 Jan
THREAD 1/7 Saturday’s protests were also noticeable for the lack of humorous slogans and placards in comparison with previous Russian protests . The protesters were very serious, even gloomy. From my current piece carnegie.ru/commentary/837…
2/7 The slogans lacked the usual appeals to the law, democracy, and the constitution. This protest was not about calling on the authorities to follow the law, count votes fairly, allow candidates to run. It was a march against those in power bit.ly/36d6zIm
3/7 Unlike the protests that followed the murder of the opposition politician Boris Nemtsov in 2015, Saturday’s Moscow rally was not dominated by representatives of the capital’s liberal intelligentsia bit.ly/36d6zIm
Read 7 tweets
16 Oct 20
1/7 The new round of sanctions introduced by the EU against Russia over the poisoning of opposition politician Alexei Navalny have three key aspects. My take here carnegie.ru/commentary/829…
2/7They target individual people and organizations, rather than entire sectors of the economy; they don’t follow the suggestion of targeting the subjects of Navalny’s investigations; and they don’t distinguish between the siloviki (security services) hawks and in-system liberals
3/7 The list does not mention the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, although judging by multiple public statements made on the issue, canceling the pipeline project is seen as the most effective punishment bit.ly/3dF8t7m
Read 7 tweets
9 Oct 20
1/8 Russia is not charging in to help its ally Armenia because it doesn’t just matter who is under attack, but who they are under attack from. My take on Russia's present role in #NagornoKarabakh carnegie.ru/commentary/829…
2/8Unlike other former Soviet republics with frozen conflicts (Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova), Azerbaijan has not been an enemy state for Russia. Azerbaijan has cooperated with NATO, but it has never voiced any official ambition to join the alliance bit.ly/3jK43OH
3/8 Among the former Soviet states, Azerbaijan has always been an example of how to follow a foreign policy that is entirely independent from Russia, while maintaining a good relationship with Moscow bit.ly/3jK43OH
Read 8 tweets

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