Masks & washing hands stop working in fall/winter for #COVID19 in #France

#covid19france

(data from covidmap.umd.edu, it's survey data from Facebook users, more details: ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/vi…)

[t.me/chrisgodlak] Image
essential shoping (shops, groceries, pharmacies...) and "positivity" rate are two distinct and separate process :p

#COVID19 #covid19france #France

[t.me/chrisgodlak] Image
actually reducing attendance to events with more than 10 people increases %pcr+ :D

#COVID19 #covid19france #France

[t.me/chrisgodlak] Image
i let you figure out yourself :)
(those FB folks do not use public transit that much...)

#covid19 #covid19france #France

[t.me/chrisgodlak] Image
worries flat whatever the stringency index
(can't tell if those FB folks are representative...)

#covid19 #covid19france #France

[t.me/chrisgodlak] Image
last but not least the best!

those FB folks know someone with c-19 symptoms and even experience a little bit of anosmia without having c-19 or flu like symptoms... all right on time in fall/winter

#covid19 #covid19france #France

[t.me/chrisgodlak] Image
addendum with acute respiratory infection incidence (Sentinelles)
Again those FB folks personally know someone with c-19 symptoms along with fall/winter peak in acute respiratory infections but they don't catch anything themselves... 🤔

#covid19 #covid19france #France Image

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More from @ChrisGodlak

2 May
tej wiara:)
co nam pokaza wyniki sondazy z FB na temat koronasytuacji?
dane: covidmap.umd.edu, detale: ojs.ub.uni-konstanz.de/srm/article/vi…
koronadane z covid.ourworldindata.org
jedziemy!
#koronawirus #Polska #COVID19 #thread
(tu podobny watek dot. Francji: )
1/n
Mycie nog zycia wrog a maseczki i mycie rak przestaja dzialac na jesien/zime
kto by pomyslal :p
#koronawirus #Polska #COVID19
2/n

(chcesz wiecej => t.me/chrisgodlak) Image
to szczegolnie przestanie lazenia po barach knajpach itp powoduje wzrost %pcr+ na jesien zime jak widac ;)
#koronawirus #Polska #COVID19
3/n
(sprawdz mnie: t.me/chrisgodlak) Image
Read 8 tweets
30 Jan
#thread follow up to previous thread below
i repeat the same excercise with positivity rate instead of reproduction rate vs stringency index by adding country, week and both effects in the panel regressions
#COVID19
1/n
the graphs:
(notice higher positive rate when stringency stronger)
benchmark: within R² = 5.82%
+country dummies: same
+week dummies = 47.36% (~ x 100 w/r benchmark)
+country & week dum. = as above
again "seasonality" explains most of what is going on in the data
#COVID19
2/n
and so again one can ask if they #lockdown during colder seasons and this makes actually things worse ?
#COVID19
3/3
Read 5 tweets
30 Jan
#thread
Following recent success of this thread (thanks @FatEmperor i guess :)just wanted to get back to this
i will just take the first graph as exemple: it's reproduction rate vs stringency index
panel (country-time in days) regression with random effects
#COVID19
1/n
i put the initial graph as "benchmark" and i add 3 other graphs
panel regression with random effects
with countries dummies included
with weeks dummies included
with countries & weeks dummies included
and we will compare the R² as these are the only changing in this excercise
2/n
in panel regression what is most important is the R² within
adding country effects changes nothing
adding weeks (i.e. time trend or "seasonality" in this context) increases a lot the R² within (~ x100)
adding countries & weeks => same results as with weeks added only
3/n
Read 6 tweets
28 Jan
3. seasonality in various hospi. data curves
#COVID19

2/n
4. demographics !
yep we have lots of baby-boomers, particularly in Western Europe:
#COVID19

3/n
Read 15 tweets
28 Jan
Inspired by this #thread on #lockdown and #cases in several countries by @tomyhub :
I replicate the same excercise but add 'tests' and hospitalizations along with 'cases'
Here is Lithuania
1/n
#COVID19
Here is Poland
2/n
#COVID19 #lockdown
Here is France
3/n
#COVID19 #lockdown
Read 16 tweets

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