This morning's rainfall forecast is actually last nights (I am in the process of moving - a bit stretched. There is a lot going on.

Here we see the ongoing impacts of a #WestAfricaWaterPlume coming into the Middle East and 2 large storms, one over Syria and one over Medina
Here are last night's 10-day rainfall forecasts for North Africa which are nothing short of astonishing with respect especially to what is expected in #Algeria and #Mauritania. The largest forecast #DesertRain event to date.
This animation is from the is morning and shows the current status of both #WestAfricanMonsoon events. The Plume directed at the #MiddleEast is continuing and the one in the west Sahara is strengthening.
This animation shows the #MiddleEast stream yesterday morning, a little bit later in the morning.
This animation CMC model shows the next three days of activity in the West Sahara as modeled. If you look closely you can also see the activity over Chad and the Sudan directed at the #MiddleEast and the comparative size of the events is obvious.
But it doesn't stop there. This animation shows the remainder of the week and through next weekend. Note that the CMC is the most bullish of the models when it comes to this phenomena. Both about the strength of the plume and its resulting #DesertRain impacts.
Rain forecasts.

Here are the10-Day forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica #Ethiopia and the Blue and White #NileBasin.
.. and their three day counterparts. The skies are relatively clear over the area today providing possibly some needed respite from the massive levels of precipitation since April 13th.
These images from yesterday show the extent of growth underway in Eastern Ethiopia Sudan and South Sudan.
This image shows the same areas in January for comparison.
Moving to the Middle East here are last night's 10-day rainfall forecasts. The KMA model seems to be the first to be incorporating the #WestAfricaWaterPlume impact.
And here are the longer range forecasts. Again so far only the KMA is capturing the reality on the ground. And the impact seems to be mainly in the north of the #MiddleEast over the Levant. and Iraq.
Moving further east all the models are now in agreement about the arrival of a #BayOfBengal Tropical Storm mid next week over the Ganges Delta.
This animation from this morning shows the two active cyclone formation areas one in the Bay of Bengal which shows #Invest93B which has now strengthened from a disturbance to a depression.

You can follow the storm in real time via @zoom_earth here >> zoom.earth/storms/93b-202…
Here are this mornings 10 day rainfall expectations for the area from the latest model runs. Note however that the predictions around the strength of #Tauktae fell significantly short of the reality. So people in the region should be planning for a possible catastrophic landfall.
ENDS/

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More from @althecat

20 May
This is a remarkable achievement for the @JoeBiden foreign policy team, @SecBlinken & NSA @jakejsullivan who have proved they can walk and chew gum very well.

It’s also a huge victory for the people of Gaza and their supporters around the world.

Peace has been given a chance.
And it’s also a remarkable vindication for the role played by news media in speaking truth to power. english.ahram.org.eg/News/411556.as…
Read 12 tweets
20 May
We have another large #ArabianStorm which was not anticipated by the global weather models. And like those before it, it is fueled by the #WestAfricaMonsoon and a #WestAfricaWaterPlume. This time across the Red Sea in the vicinity of #Makkah.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
This animation shows the current state of a weather event that has been a few days in coming. #ArabianStorms

@Arab_Storms
The origin of this event is very similar to that which caused several days of extremely severe thunderstorms in #Oman earlier in the month. This animation is from May 18th shortly after it first appeared in the @zoom_earth satellite imagery.
Read 15 tweets
19 May
The eyes of the world are turned towards the Holy Land on the 10th day of a horrific conflict between the Govt. of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas Govt. in Gaza.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.
This image shows a larger picture of the region, from Cairo to Kampala the full Nile Basin. Source: @NASA Modis.
The 10-day forecasts for North Africa are showing increasing amounts of rain over the Western end of the Sahara Desert. The exception being the @ECMWF model which maintains its disbelief in the concept of #DesertRain.
Read 17 tweets
19 May
It appears that the terrifying and apocalyptic aerial bombardment of Gaza by Israel has resumed for a ninth night.

I pray that Hamas holds their fire.
This is why I pray Hamas holds their fire tonight. A unilateral unannounced ceasefire is the best path to a victory, to delivering a lasting peace and forcing Israel into meaningful negotiations to reduce the suffering of the people of Gaza.
Read 4 tweets
18 May
This is pretty amazing.

For the Gazans in their open air prison, this level of recognition of their plight is what they are seeking.

They cannot and do not expect to win a war with Israel. All they can win is hearts and minds.
This sort of thing is infectious. And maybe just maybe it can bring first a ceasefire and later peace.

The cycle of violence in the Holy Places of Israel Palestine needs to stop, it is a crushing evil that causes pain across the world.
The wars in Gaza and there have been many have till now been two dimensional. Intractable, hopeless, irredeemable.

This one feels different. The obscenity remains but for a number of reasons it is very different.
Read 12 tweets

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