We have another large #ArabianStorm which was not anticipated by the global weather models. And like those before it, it is fueled by the #WestAfricaMonsoon and a #WestAfricaWaterPlume. This time across the Red Sea in the vicinity of #Makkah.

Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
This animation shows the current state of a weather event that has been a few days in coming. #ArabianStorms

The origin of this event is very similar to that which caused several days of extremely severe thunderstorms in #Oman earlier in the month. This animation is from May 18th shortly after it first appeared in the @zoom_earth satellite imagery.
Current precipitable water model observations for the #MiddleEast. The flow of water vapor from central Africa into northern #SaudiArabia is continuing.
10 Day Rainfall forecasts for 20 May follow:

First North Africa where a spectacular #DesertRain Western Sahara rain event is forecast.
3rd Middle East 10-Day
4th #MiddleEast long range 16 and 12 day forecasts.
It’s clear from the latest forecasts that the @NOAA GFS and @ECMWF models are still struggling to model the significantly more complex Middle East weather situation & its African Monsoon origins. Neither model is showing any Levant and Northern #ArabianPeninsula rainfall.
You can watch the latest unusual #ArabianStorms causing event live at this link. zoom.earth/#view=26.25,39… on zoom_earth
None of this is a criticism of the leading GFS and ECMWF global models. They remain preeminent among supercomputer model. Their forecasts for Cyclone #Tauktae were spot on. Both models are now predicting a tropical storm in the Bay of Bengal.
MLSP forecasts showing a tropical storm making landfall near Calcutta mid next week.
Long range 10, 12 and 16 day rainfall forecasts for the Indian sub-continent and it’s attendant increasingly active adjacent seas, #ArabianSea #BayOfBengal

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More from @althecat

22 May
This morning's rainfall forecast is actually last nights (I am in the process of moving - a bit stretched. There is a lot going on.

Here we see the ongoing impacts of a #WestAfricaWaterPlume coming into the Middle East and 2 large storms, one over Syria and one over Medina
Here are last night's 10-day rainfall forecasts for North Africa which are nothing short of astonishing with respect especially to what is expected in #Algeria and #Mauritania. The largest forecast #DesertRain event to date. ImageImageImageImage
This animation is from the is morning and shows the current status of both #WestAfricanMonsoon events. The Plume directed at the #MiddleEast is continuing and the one in the west Sahara is strengthening.
Read 16 tweets
20 May
This is a remarkable achievement for the @JoeBiden foreign policy team, @SecBlinken & NSA @jakejsullivan who have proved they can walk and chew gum very well.

It’s also a huge victory for the people of Gaza and their supporters around the world.

Peace has been given a chance.
And it’s also a remarkable vindication for the role played by news media in speaking truth to power. english.ahram.org.eg/News/411556.as…
Read 12 tweets
19 May
The eyes of the world are turned towards the Holy Land on the 10th day of a horrific conflict between the Govt. of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Hamas Govt. in Gaza.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.
This image shows a larger picture of the region, from Cairo to Kampala the full Nile Basin. Source: @NASA Modis.
The 10-day forecasts for North Africa are showing increasing amounts of rain over the Western end of the Sahara Desert. The exception being the @ECMWF model which maintains its disbelief in the concept of #DesertRain.
Read 17 tweets
19 May
It appears that the terrifying and apocalyptic aerial bombardment of Gaza by Israel has resumed for a ninth night.

I pray that Hamas holds their fire.
This is why I pray Hamas holds their fire tonight. A unilateral unannounced ceasefire is the best path to a victory, to delivering a lasting peace and forcing Israel into meaningful negotiations to reduce the suffering of the people of Gaza.
Read 4 tweets
18 May
This is pretty amazing.

For the Gazans in their open air prison, this level of recognition of their plight is what they are seeking.

They cannot and do not expect to win a war with Israel. All they can win is hearts and minds.
This sort of thing is infectious. And maybe just maybe it can bring first a ceasefire and later peace.

The cycle of violence in the Holy Places of Israel Palestine needs to stop, it is a crushing evil that causes pain across the world.
The wars in Gaza and there have been many have till now been two dimensional. Intractable, hopeless, irredeemable.

This one feels different. The obscenity remains but for a number of reasons it is very different.
Read 12 tweets

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