“Immune escape” in #DeltaVariant. That’s the latest finding - that #B16172 is as bad for antibody neutralization as the Beta variant #B1351 from South Africa 🇿🇦. 1st dose alone very small effect— 2 doses needed, but weakest against Delta. Let’s walk through evidence 🧵 #COVID19
2) first, @chrischirp says “Now we have a dominant variant that is as bad as Beta for immune escape but much more transmissible.” — she says that because Beta #B1351 (green) was previously the worst neutralization variant. Now it seems #DeltaVariant is even worse.
3) The latest Lancet study also found waning neutralization over time, similar to other variants— but the difference is that #DeltaVariant#B16172 starts from a much lower baseline level to begin with.
4) Also, let’s look at 1 vs 2 dose Pfizer BioNTech neutralization— with the old original strain, 79% of all people had measureable neutralization with 1 dose — but with #DeltaVariant, that fell to 32% with 1 dose, similar to the other worrisome #Beta#B1351.
5) This is why 1 dose simply not enough protection for any country facing #B16172 in their country or the prospect of the #DeltaVariant infiltration, which is to say, almost any country given how transmissible Delta is.
6) Also notice how virus neutralization is much weaker in the elderly… yet for #B16172#DeltaVariant, the neutralization in young adults (~20s) for Delta is akin to neutralization in the elderly for the wild type old strain! 👀
7) the greater transmission and severity for hospital admissions of the #DeltaVariant is supported by data from UK 🇬🇧
8) Keep in mind that ~2.5x higher hospitalization risk for #B16172#DeltaVariant versus #B117#AlphaVariant is on top of #B117 being 64% more severe than the original earlier strain. Thus 1.64*2.5= #DeltaVariant having *4.1x* the risk vs original! 👀 see 🧵 above
9) Whenever I see two studies that both closely agree that #DeltaVariant is very bad for hospitalizations— I really worry. This study also conducted during the vaccine era of UK. That said most hospitalized are not fully vaccinated. But 1 dose we know isn’t enough.
WOW—Belgium announces that CO2 meters (of air ventilation) will be required in hotels, restaurants, bars, banquet halls & fitness centers — and required to be **visible** to all customers.
2) CO2 does not cause infections directly per se. but it is a proxy of poor indoor air quality that allows #SARSCoV2 virus particles to build up, which is hard to measure. Thus, CO2 allows a quick and easy way to assess potential chances of virus buildup and infection risk.
⚠️CDC warns of increased hospitalization rates of teenagers with #COVID19 in March-April, @CDCDirector urged parents to vaccinate teens. “I am deeply concerned by numbers of hospitalized adolescents &… see numbers who required ICU or mechanical ventilation”, citing new MMWR🧵
2) ““Much of this suffering can be prevented,” she said, urging “parents, relatives and close friends to join me and talk with teens” about the importance of prevention strategies and to encourage vaccination.
3) “The study showed that nearly one-third of those who were hospitalized with covid-19 during a surge of cases early this year required intensive care, and 5 percent required mechanical ventilation.” cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
ICE THINNING FASTER—New study conclude that Arctic sea ice is thinning twice as fast as before. Especially in key coastal regions was thinning at a rate 70% to 100% faster than previously thought (which before had used outdated data from 20 years ago).
2) “To calculate sea ice thickness researchers used radar from the European Space Agency's CryoSat-2 satellite. By timing how long it takes for radar waves to bounce back from the ice, they can calculate the height of the ice above the water—to infer the ice's total thickness.”
3) They also found that, across all seven coastal seas, the variability in sea ice thickness from year to year increased by 58%.
Sea ice in the coastal seas typically varies from 1/2 metre to two metres thick. Increasingly, the ice in this region is not surviving the summer melt.
📌Severity is now RED (previously insufficient info)
📌Vaccines is now RED with high confidence (previously moderate)
3) Two separate studies on hospitalization severity—one from England 🏴 and one from Scotland 🏴— both found Increased severity of #DeltaVariant#B16172
➡️ Risk of hospital admission (Hazard Ratio = 2.61 in England and HR = 2.39 in Scotland) compared to the Kent variant #B117!
Vaccine efficacy of Pfizer-BioNTech in Denmark 🇩🇰 for >=7 days after 2 doses:
📍53% in Long Term Care Facilities
📍86% in >=65 years needing homecare
📍77% in >=85 years old
📍80% in frontline healthcare workers
📍73% with #COVID19 high risk factors. medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
2) For hospitalization admissions overall, 93% efficacy with 2 doses. But 75% efficacy for hospital admissions among those living in long term care facilities.
3) For #COVID19 mortality, 94% efficacy with 2 doses after 7 days. For long term care facilities residents, 89% efficacy against covid mortality. 97% for >=65 needing homecare.
Also interesting 49% efficacy against all-cause mortality!
CELL-to-CELL transmission that avoids antibodies—a new study shows that once cells are #SARSCoV2 infected, they can infect other cells in ways which are very difficult to inhibit with antibodies. Video shows how virus can move between cells. HT @sigallab.
2) So @sigallab wanted to text if antibodies against #SARSCoV2 can neutralize the virus.
Top row, with virus infection *not via cell to cell*, the more antibodies (left), the less virus leftover.
Bottom row: in cell to cell infection, antibodies made zero difference! 👀
3) The implication? Once the infection sets in, the virus can keep proliferating and transmitting cell to cell, avoiding the blood stream or wherever antibodies can access and directly neutralize the virus. #SARSCoV2 is a tricky beast.