2/ "An extreme form of “going direct” would be an explicit and permanent monetary financing of a fiscal expansion, or so-called helicopter money. Explicit monetary financing in sufficient size will push up inflation."
3/ "Without explicit boundaries, however, it would undermine institutional credibility and could lead to uncontrolled fiscal spending."
4/ "Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn. Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge towards zero or below. "
5/ "Fiscal policy on its own will struggle to provide major stimulus in a timely fashion given high debt levels and the typical lags with implementation. "
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Over the past several weeks, we have seen significant Central Bank actions globally. This reflects a market flush with cash and a desire by the Federal Reserve to hold short-term rates positive. 2/
Mid-June 2021 FOMC Summary: 1. Unchanged rate and QE policy 2. Reverse Repo rate increase to 5bps 3. IOER increase to 15 bps 4. Dot plot showing rate hikes sooner than expected
3/
1) Medium Term: #Fed Hawkish, #ECB Dovish
As the Federal Reserve begins discussing tapering, the ECB is still providing stimulus. A hawkish Fed is confirming a stronger economy while the ECB confirming weakness.
2) Medium Term: Treasury General Account Drawdown Largely Over
$300mm remaining with $750bn already done, causing this downward pressure on the $DXY to wane