1) Medium Term: #Fed Hawkish, #ECB Dovish
As the Federal Reserve begins discussing tapering, the ECB is still providing stimulus. A hawkish Fed is confirming a stronger economy while the ECB confirming weakness.
2) Medium Term: Treasury General Account Drawdown Largely Over
$300mm remaining with $750bn already done, causing this downward pressure on the $DXY to wane
7. Long-term: The Federal Reserves Conundrum
"The #Fed will have to continuously print to prop up asset prices and keep interest rates low to maintain solvency of pension and keep the market from imploding on itself." derman-capital.medium.com/the-conundrum-…
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2/ "An extreme form of “going direct” would be an explicit and permanent monetary financing of a fiscal expansion, or so-called helicopter money. Explicit monetary financing in sufficient size will push up inflation."
3/ "Without explicit boundaries, however, it would undermine institutional credibility and could lead to uncontrolled fiscal spending."
Over the past several weeks, we have seen significant Central Bank actions globally. This reflects a market flush with cash and a desire by the Federal Reserve to hold short-term rates positive. 2/
Mid-June 2021 FOMC Summary: 1. Unchanged rate and QE policy 2. Reverse Repo rate increase to 5bps 3. IOER increase to 15 bps 4. Dot plot showing rate hikes sooner than expected
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