US #Employment Disconnect?
⬆️ Stronger NFP 850k vs 720k exp; 583k prev
v/s
⬇️ Higher Unemployment 5.9% vs 5.6% exp; 5.8% prev
To add to @jasonfurman:
Chart: Household Survey (Employment) historically more volatile than Establishment Survey (NFP)
1/5
⬆️ Stronger NFP 850k vs 720k exp; 583k prev
v/s
⬇️ Higher Unemployment 5.9% vs 5.6% exp; 5.8% prev
To add to @jasonfurman:
Chart: Household Survey (Employment) historically more volatile than Establishment Survey (NFP)
https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1410946244361531398?s=20
1/5
U3 v/s U6:
Well noted by @AndreasSteno; while normal Unemployment Rate U3 rose (5.8%=>5.9%), U6 fell (10.2%=>9.8%)
U3 = Total Unemployed / Civilian Labour Force
U6 = (Total Unemployed + marginally attached + employed part time for eco reasons) / CLF
2/5
Well noted by @AndreasSteno; while normal Unemployment Rate U3 rose (5.8%=>5.9%), U6 fell (10.2%=>9.8%)
U3 = Total Unemployed / Civilian Labour Force
U6 = (Total Unemployed + marginally attached + employed part time for eco reasons) / CLF
2/5
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1410957544042926080?s=20
#U3
5.9% vs 3.5% (Feb'20) vs 14.8% (Apr'20 peak)
#U6
9.8% vs 7.0% (Feb'20) vs 22.9% (Apr'20 peak)
Both are still some distance away from pre-pandemic level but U6 has shown more consistent improvement than Official U3
3/5
5.9% vs 3.5% (Feb'20) vs 14.8% (Apr'20 peak)
#U6
9.8% vs 7.0% (Feb'20) vs 22.9% (Apr'20 peak)
Both are still some distance away from pre-pandemic level but U6 has shown more consistent improvement than Official U3
3/5
More Job Openings available (9.3 mio Apr JOLT) now than NFP Jobs lost during pandemic (6.7 mio lost since Feb'20)
Well that cross-over happened with April data itself, but June's additional 850k NFP claw-back would have further helped
Next JOLT Release: 7 July
4/5
Well that cross-over happened with April data itself, but June's additional 850k NFP claw-back would have further helped
Next JOLT Release: 7 July
4/5
U-JOR: Unemployed / Job-Opening Ratio
Bullard's favourite measure; marginally worse with Total Unemployed 168k higher; U-JOR 1.00 to 1.02 with Apr JOLT
Should wait for next JOLT release to compare apples/apples but U-JOR already showing labour tightness
Bullard's favourite measure; marginally worse with Total Unemployed 168k higher; U-JOR 1.00 to 1.02 with Apr JOLT
Should wait for next JOLT release to compare apples/apples but U-JOR already showing labour tightness
https://twitter.com/VaradMarkets/status/1399664549435895810?s=20
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
