#Dollar = '#Fiat' Money?

Article rightly highlights QE just as asset swap & that Money is created by Bank lending, not Fed, it also revives interesting debate arguing Dollar not Fiat but Credit money

What exactly is Fiat/Paper money? Two definitions:
1/7
ft.com/content/5e5b2a…
'Fiat' Money:
1⃣ Into existence because of authoritative decree/sanction/order; no Intrinsic value
2⃣ Not convertible to or backed by other asset or commodity (Nixon Gold Std 1971; Britain 1931)

1⃣ Decree:
Dollars/Money = IOU 'I owe you' from Central Bank CB to Economy =

2/7
=Liability of CB=>‘Credit’ Money
But Dollar/Money = special IOU that everyone in Economy trusts. So yes, we take credit risk on US Govt when we trust Dollar=>‘Credit’ Money

But while there may not be an authoritative decree behind Dollar (so not ‘Fiat’ from that angle)...

3/7
it is Govt authority which brings that trust in the first place, which makes Dollar universally accepted as medium of exchange

So it is NOT:
Authority => Decree/Order => Dollar/Money

BUT it is:
Authority => Trust => Dollar/Money

This Trust is where credit risk creeps in

4/7
2⃣ Convertibility:
Arguments for Dollar not being Fiat using second definition are a bit hazy

If you lose faith in US Govt, can you convert your financial asset (Money/Dollar) into another non-fin goods/commodity. No

Article seems to suggest that we should be fine as...

5/7
...this CB liability (Money/Dollars) is ultimately backed by assets "It’s all transactions on balance sheet, assets for liabilities"

But note that CB liability (Dollars) is backed by Assets (UST/Debt) which are also denominated in same Dollars
6/7
CB can pay back its liability/debt only with more fiat money. You can get your old $100 bill replaced at bank with new $100 bill – but both are still Dollars

Hence:
🔹 Authoritative Decree angle: Dollar not 'Fiat' but 'Credit/Trust' Money
🔹 Convertibility angle: Dollar is Fiat

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More from @VaradMarkets

2 Jul
US #Employment Disconnect?

⬆️ Stronger NFP 850k vs 720k exp; 583k prev
v/s
⬇️ Higher Unemployment 5.9% vs 5.6% exp; 5.8% prev

To add to @jasonfurman:
Chart: Household Survey (Employment) historically more volatile than Establishment Survey (NFP)


1/5 Image
U3 v/s U6:
Well noted by @AndreasSteno; while normal Unemployment Rate U3 rose (5.8%=>5.9%), U6 fell (10.2%=>9.8%)

U3 = Total Unemployed / Civilian Labour Force
U6 = (Total Unemployed + marginally attached + employed part time for eco reasons) / CLF

2/5
ImageImage
#U3
5.9% vs 3.5% (Feb'20) vs 14.8% (Apr'20 peak)

#U6
9.8% vs 7.0% (Feb'20) vs 22.9% (Apr'20 peak)

Both are still some distance away from pre-pandemic level but U6 has shown more consistent improvement than Official U3

3/5 Image
Read 6 tweets
28 Jun
#FX CFTC Positioning: Large short-USD position reduction post FOMC

▪️ Largest USD buying since mid-2018 v/s EUR
▪️ ~$5.85 bn USD bought vs G10 FX => mostly long EUR & GBP reduction & short JPY addition
▪️ Long EUR positioning ~half of Aug'20 peak but still double its 4yr avg
1/4 ImageImage
▪️ Post FOMC's perceived hawkishness, short USD position reduction expected
▪️ Mkt still holding onto Long CAD, Short JPY, Long GBP
▪️ Interesting jump in Long CHF position => possibly reduced Long EUR/Short CHF, increased Long CHF/Short JPY

2/4
▪️ Addition to short MXN positions (as of 22 Jun) but that was before Banxico surprise rate hike on 24 Jun
▪️ Interestingly, while USDMXN had large retracement from post-pandemic highs (25.00 to 20.00), haven't seen any large Long MXN position buildup yet

3/4 Image
Read 4 tweets
15 Jun
Three largest Asians may end up with early tightness:
▪️ #China: Never went too accommodative to start with + credit tightening
▪️ #India: Inflation surge may force RBI's hands
▪️ #Korea: BoK increasingly hawkish

KRW 2y IRS +17bp since May MPC
INR 5y NDOIS +11bp post CPI yday ImageImage
BoK's recent hawkishness => rates sell off (higher yld) v/s Received rates positioning:
🔹 'Normalization should not be put off too much'
🔹 'Rapid debt rise may hurt consumption'
🔹 'Should secure policy room for future issues'
🔹 'Inflation may accelerate faster than expected'
India: Inflation surge

Key to see how RBI interprets the CPI data - transitory or persistent?

Read 4 tweets
13 Jun
#China Credit Tightening?

▪️ Aggregate Financing AFRE or Total Social Financing TSF growth slowed to 11% yoy May v/s 11.7% Apr
▪️ Renminbi RMB Loan growth inched down to 12.2% yoy May v/s 12.3% Apr
▪️ Optically Broad Credit YoY charts look scarier than they actually are

1/9 ImageImage
▪️ To start, target Fiscal Deficit 3.1% in 2021 v/s over 3.6% in 2020 => bound to be fiscal tightening by design
▪️ AFRE outstanding stock indeed points to recent marginal slowdown relative to post-COVID trend
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2/9 ImageImage
▪️ Credit did tighten in 2021 v/s exceptional surge in 2020 (base effect) but 2021 still ahead of pre-COVID yrs of 2017-19 => better call it credit 'normalization'
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3/9 Image
Read 9 tweets
2 Jun
Role of #USD & #EUR in Global Monetary System:

[Charts from ECB Paper: 'International Role of Euro']

#Dollar continues to dominate FX Reserves, International Debt, Loans, Deposits, FX Turnover & Global payments

1/7
FX Transactions settled in CLS System (Continuous Linked Settlement)

▪️ USD led FX market => involved in ~90% of all settlements in Dec'20
▪️ EUR second most actively settled ccy

2/7
FX Share in Global FX RESERVES:

Sub-thread below

3/7
Read 7 tweets
31 May
US #Inflation #DiveIn: CPI v/s PCE
Also why FED follows PCE?

▪️ Attached Summary of differences
▪️ Since 2000, overall CPI ~11% higher than PCE

▪️ Definition:
🔹 CPI: Out-of-pocket spending by non-institutional Urban Consumers
🔹 PCE: Includes Rural & all personal sector
1/12
Four Sources of differences: Scope, Formula, Weight, Others Effects

1⃣ Scope Effect:
🔹 CPI: Consumer Price Index => Survey of Households
🔹 PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditure => Survey of Businesses
▪️ 25% of PCE spending not captured by CPI

2/12
▪️ PCE includes spending by Govt, Firms, Non-Profits on behalf of Households
- E.G: Medical spending = Direct purchases by Consumers + Spending on medical goods & services by Medicare OR Employer's Health Insurance
- E.G: Public school education not an out-of-pocket spending
3/12
Read 12 tweets

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