Article rightly highlights QE just as asset swap & that Money is created by Bank lending, not Fed, it also revives interesting debate arguing Dollar not Fiat but Credit money
'Fiat' Money:
1⃣ Into existence because of authoritative decree/sanction/order; no Intrinsic value
2⃣ Not convertible to or backed by other asset or commodity (Nixon Gold Std 1971; Britain 1931)
1⃣ Decree:
Dollars/Money = IOU 'I owe you' from Central Bank CB to Economy =
2/7
=Liability of CB=>‘Credit’ Money
But Dollar/Money = special IOU that everyone in Economy trusts. So yes, we take credit risk on US Govt when we trust Dollar=>‘Credit’ Money
But while there may not be an authoritative decree behind Dollar (so not ‘Fiat’ from that angle)...
3/7
it is Govt authority which brings that trust in the first place, which makes Dollar universally accepted as medium of exchange
So it is NOT:
Authority => Decree/Order => Dollar/Money
BUT it is:
Authority => Trust => Dollar/Money
This Trust is where credit risk creeps in
4/7
2⃣ Convertibility:
Arguments for Dollar not being Fiat using second definition are a bit hazy
If you lose faith in US Govt, can you convert your financial asset (Money/Dollar) into another non-fin goods/commodity. No
Article seems to suggest that we should be fine as...
5/7
...this CB liability (Money/Dollars) is ultimately backed by assets "It’s all transactions on balance sheet, assets for liabilities"
But note that CB liability (Dollars) is backed by Assets (UST/Debt) which are also denominated in same Dollars 6/7
CB can pay back its liability/debt only with more fiat money. You can get your old $100 bill replaced at bank with new $100 bill – but both are still Dollars
Hence:
🔹 Authoritative Decree angle: Dollar not 'Fiat' but 'Credit/Trust' Money
🔹 Convertibility angle: Dollar is Fiat
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
#FX CFTC Positioning: Large short-USD position reduction post FOMC
▪️ Largest USD buying since mid-2018 v/s EUR
▪️ ~$5.85 bn USD bought vs G10 FX => mostly long EUR & GBP reduction & short JPY addition
▪️ Long EUR positioning ~half of Aug'20 peak but still double its 4yr avg 1/4
▪️ Post FOMC's perceived hawkishness, short USD position reduction expected
▪️ Mkt still holding onto Long CAD, Short JPY, Long GBP
▪️ Interesting jump in Long CHF position => possibly reduced Long EUR/Short CHF, increased Long CHF/Short JPY
▪️ Addition to short MXN positions (as of 22 Jun) but that was before Banxico surprise rate hike on 24 Jun
▪️ Interestingly, while USDMXN had large retracement from post-pandemic highs (25.00 to 20.00), haven't seen any large Long MXN position buildup yet
Three largest Asians may end up with early tightness:
▪️ #China: Never went too accommodative to start with + credit tightening
▪️ #India: Inflation surge may force RBI's hands
▪️ #Korea: BoK increasingly hawkish
KRW 2y IRS +17bp since May MPC
INR 5y NDOIS +11bp post CPI yday
BoK's recent hawkishness => rates sell off (higher yld) v/s Received rates positioning:
🔹 'Normalization should not be put off too much'
🔹 'Rapid debt rise may hurt consumption'
🔹 'Should secure policy room for future issues'
🔹 'Inflation may accelerate faster than expected'
India: Inflation surge
Key to see how RBI interprets the CPI data - transitory or persistent?
▪️ Aggregate Financing AFRE or Total Social Financing TSF growth slowed to 11% yoy May v/s 11.7% Apr
▪️ Renminbi RMB Loan growth inched down to 12.2% yoy May v/s 12.3% Apr
▪️ Optically Broad Credit YoY charts look scarier than they actually are
1/9
▪️ To start, target Fiscal Deficit 3.1% in 2021 v/s over 3.6% in 2020 => bound to be fiscal tightening by design
▪️ AFRE outstanding stock indeed points to recent marginal slowdown relative to post-COVID trend
▪️ But AFRE stock still above more longer term (4yr) trend
2/9
▪️ Credit did tighten in 2021 v/s exceptional surge in 2020 (base effect) but 2021 still ahead of pre-COVID yrs of 2017-19 => better call it credit 'normalization'
▪️ Govt completed only ~25% of 2021 bond issuance in first 5m of yr => backloaded => likely pickup in H2'21
▪️ Attached Summary of differences
▪️ Since 2000, overall CPI ~11% higher than PCE
▪️ Definition:
🔹 CPI: Out-of-pocket spending by non-institutional Urban Consumers
🔹 PCE: Includes Rural & all personal sector
1/12
Four Sources of differences: Scope, Formula, Weight, Others Effects
1⃣ Scope Effect:
🔹 CPI: Consumer Price Index => Survey of Households
🔹 PCE: Personal Consumption Expenditure => Survey of Businesses
▪️ 25% of PCE spending not captured by CPI
2/12
▪️ PCE includes spending by Govt, Firms, Non-Profits on behalf of Households
- E.G: Medical spending = Direct purchases by Consumers + Spending on medical goods & services by Medicare OR Employer's Health Insurance
- E.G: Public school education not an out-of-pocket spending
3/12