Thread by @CryptoJeromeFR

Why is @AxieInfinity so strong ? A thread to help people understand why this price rally is different, and where $AXS could go from here:

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1/ Axie infinity has huge userbase and its growing at an incredible pace.

From 108K users in early June, the game has reached 350'00 Daily active users. That's a DAILY compound growth rate of 4.0%

If this pace continues, we could see the new data for this week at 460K++ DAU.

2/ Among the new joiners, what's even more striking is the numbers of players staying with axie infinity: The retention rate after 1 day is close to 60%, and 40% after 7 days

A good 1D/7D retention rate in the gaming industry is 30%/10%

This data is from Q1 and its probably much higher now that people understand the SLP farm mechanics

3/ What is all of the above telling you ?

It's telling you that :

A) Users are growing at a massive rate and
B) Those users are staying in the game and keep on playing after 7 days, with best in class industry numbers

4/ It's one thing to have players, but what are they doing ?

They are exchanging value with each other. Wether it is axies, lands, items or potions, the marketplace numbers is bashing all other DeFi platform at this very moment.

For an economy and ecosystem to be healthy, you need to have a vibrant level of activity and numbers of transactions :

The #AxieInfinity marketplace is reflecting exactly that :

Axie is generating more revenues than all the other DeFi protocols on the left COMBINED. I think most people don't realize how massive this is.

With over 26M in volumes in the last 24 hours, Axie infinity is one pace to generate 1.1M$ daily revenues, or 401M annualized.

5/ its not over : All of this value is going back into the ecosystem and to $AXS token holders as all the net income coming fees is going into the Treasury. Remember that @AxieInfinity 's goal is to build a game that is held and operated by players.

6/ Valuationwise, - as per my models and data - the market is currently pricing AXS at a 2.6x P/E ratio. Which is way below the median multiple of 29x for my basket of DeFi.

What it means is that either the basket is overvalued, or AXS is trading at a massive discount in terms of multiple. If it were to trade at even 5x or 10x, AXS would be trading at $35 or 70$ today!

Data shows that the Axie Marketplace volume has been increasing at a 7% DAILY compound growth rate for the past month.

I've built a financial model to extrapolate some of this data using a more conservative 3% daily growth rate of the market place, and we could be conservatively sitting at 60M in about 30 days time.

The model now comes out to 42$ as a fair value for $AXS @AxieInfinity

7/ Ultimately the treasury warchest will be gradually distributed to $AXS token holders. Based on old numbers, @Delphi_Digital was suggesting a staking rewards from fees and inflation between 34% and 45% for the next 5 years.

But given the massive fees the marketplace started generating, I think its likely that staking yield will come out in the high double digit/triple digits area.

This is one more HUGE reasons to hold $AXS.

8/ While most think that @AxieInfinity hype will somewhat collapse like for Cryptopunks or NBA topshot.

This time looks different because Axie combines Community, Utility, and great incentives for token holders.

9/ From a macro viewpoint, almost nobody is exposed to this lockchain gaming narrative

Meaning that when people start looking at it more seriously, the potential for upside recalibration is MASSIVE

Everyone holds $ETH and other Layer1, but most dont have exposure to this theme.

10/ If you look at top AXS token holders on the blockchain, you "only" need $600k to be in the top 50.

What this is telling you is that not many big funds and VCs are into the AXS just yet.

I've been watching the top 50 over the past few days, and you could litteray see big wallets accumulating and newer long term positions being built.

The good thing is these big wallets entering top 50 are not going to sell in one or two weeks, they're here to ride the wave.

11/ In the meantime day traders are trying to short AXS on every push higher, supporting upward movement as they get liquidated by spot bidders given the thin liquidity of AXS on exchanges.

For full disclosure I started buying a sizeable position since mid 5s, and have been adding nearly every day into the 8s 10s 11s.

If volume increases and the market wakes up to the blockchain narrative, I think we could easily see triple digit $AXS.

Do not hesitate to DM if you want to discuss the thesis together.

12/ Last but not least, In an environment where competition is fierce, the team at @AxieInfinity is Innovating on all fronts, Project X DEX, Land Gameplay..

There will be more features for players to do and earn in the near future future, meaning even more fun and fees !!

13/ Risks to this thesis :

We don't know if Poeple will keep playing axie after lockdowns in Vietnam and other south east asia countries come to an end. User growth could start declining and we could even see some DAU decline.

My guess is that even if some players stop playing, a good portion will continue to play the game on the side to generate extra income for their families : so this is not a binary situation.

To conclude on @AxieInfinity : Massive community, massive user growth, massive retention, massive fees, massive yields = massive potential appreciation of AXS

The market is starting to realize that NFT doesn't need to be boring.

Gaming, Play to Earn model and @AxieInfinity is here to stay.

I've met @Jihoz_Axie at different blockchains in Vietnam, and its awesome to see his hard work and the work of the axie community pay off. @ElijahCTG @cagyjan1 @brycent_ @smallbrowndoge @AxiePuff

This rally is different from others and i've been saying this in my earlier Youtube video :


This time is different, and Axie is just too big to ignore.

Happy investing everyone.