Share this page!

Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
Twitter logo
28 Jul, 5 tweets, 3 min read
In my judgement, the political correction started 3-6 months ago, so it's just a matter of spelling it out in diplomatic language, to the US Govt and Congress!
2/indus #PM's message is very clear: We can discuss shared values, including differences & nuances as friends/equals; But just as you resent foreign interference in your democratic processes, we resent foreign interference even more, because of our colonial history.
3/indus Greater effort to understand each other's views on issues on which there is a lot of ideological-political differences within each democracy (rather than to lecture from one perspective in one country to a different perspective in the other country)? 🧐🤔
4/indus From values and principles, to what matters for (hard) #deterrence of aggressors! We need to accelerate the setting up of our special operations command, develop threat scenarios, war game them, and train & equip these forces to achieve likely missions.
5/indus The A* word ; why are so many country's, organizations, analysts(🐒), afraid of using it for #PRCs 🐉 actions 🤯on its land and sea borders? 🧐🤔

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Arvind Virmani, PhD

Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @dravirmani

Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
1 Jul
Who lost Afghanistan? (1) Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld did not want to invest in the Afghan army—and by the end of 2003, just 6,000 Afghan soldiers had been trained. " ...2/
2/afpak (2)Taliban fled across the border to Pakistan, where they regrouped, raised funds, recruited in madrasahs & trained with Pakistan’s security service, Inter-Services Intelligence. Many ISI officers had worked with Taliban leaders for decades & shared their worldview..3/
3/afpak Pakistan’s role turned out to be fatal. Even as USA prosecuted its war in Afghanistan, those it fought found refuge & training in cntry next door. But #Bush admin turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s machinations; it provided it $12 bil (>$6bi reimbursement for military ops)"
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
30 Jun
"We ❤️ #FAANG #monopolists " Beware #Goebbles says :" If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." (Hint: Count how many times we have heard this same #theme, in the same #media, by the same #authors)
2/goe #Economics101: If in an industry, u create a counter to an existing monopoly, u turn it into a duopoly, if u create 2nd counter it becomes an oligopoly. The first step in creating completion. The second step is to create a regulatory system that fosters/promotes competition
3/goe #RegulatoryEc The danger to society from #Asymmetric info & #moral hazard in #Finance was 10x that of goods monopolies, the danger from #SocialMedia & #E-com monopolies is 10x that of Financial collapse! Need 21st C regulations for latter! 🙏🏼don't make it a partisan issue
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
10 Jun
Econ101: Any market economist who has worked on developing countries knows about the difference between social and economic return to investment, & how government must act based on this difference: Govt must invest directly or give financial incentives to private investors
2/* (correction) ….difference between social and private return ...
3/scba Difference btwn social & private return has to b larger than cost of intervention, incl inefficiency induced by taxation & the administrative costs(+corruption) of intervention. Beware of political benefits being mis-represented as social benefits. Benefit/cost <0 is posbl
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
9 Jun
Our dual S-curve model of propagation of mutations(blue & orange) is right on track (see egrowfoundation.org/research/india… ) with an underestimate of ~ 2% for total cases (green; had warned of potential underestimate of up to 10%, due to slower slowdown than predicted by model):
2/scurve Corresponding curves for Madhya Pradesh, which was the furthest ahead in returning to normalcy (as of June 3)
3/scurve At the other end, Tamil Nadu is most distant (along with Assam) from normalization. Note that the blue curve(up to June3) was still on the rising part of the predicted curve (orange). Consequently total cases (green) are still some way from flattening out, in TN.
Read 5 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
30 Apr
Based on S curve analysis of Indian cases, I conclude, mutations are reason for explosive 2nd wave. I model spread by dividing infections into 2 streams(original & mutations)=>The case spread curve is likely to flatten by 1st week of July at <22 mi cases. dravirmani.blogspot.com/2021/04/indias…
2/covid For S curve methodology and modeling framework developed by us, please see the @EgrowFoundation research paper, egrowfoundation.org/research/effec…
3/covid Please note that for the formal model of new/cumulated corona cases, I have used data on India from the Johns Hopkins University, Covid data set (rather than the ICMR data used in first half of the note on active cases), as this was the data used in earlier research.
Read 4 tweets
Arvind Virmani, PhD Profile picture
25 Apr
Yesterday, after a long discussion with a close family member who is a US MD phd, we agreed that with world's best #contagion models (% masks & social interaction) available in world today, the covid take-off could at best have been predicted 7 to 10 days before it exploded...2/
2/covid #Covid Pragmatic suggestion is to ban all #Social gatherings of > 7-10 people (indoors & outdoors), till curve turns down, but don't stop economic activity (w cumplusory masking, distancing). Once curve flattens, outdoor gathering restrictions can be eased with masking
3/covid Cities/towns/urban,/semi urban; rural markets/melas areas are where there is the greatest interaction between people (mobility & personal interaction are the key parameters in these virus spread models)
Read 19 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @dravirmani has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @dravirmani!

Read all threads by @dravirmani

:(