Based on S curve analysis of Indian cases, I conclude, mutations are reason for explosive 2nd wave. I model spread by dividing infections into 2 streams(original & mutations)=>The case spread curve is likely to flatten by 1st week of July at <22 mi cases. dravirmani.blogspot.com/2021/04/indias…
2/covid For S curve methodology and modeling framework developed by us, please see the @EgrowFoundation research paper, egrowfoundation.org/research/effec…
3/covid Please note that for the formal model of new/cumulated corona cases, I have used data on India from the Johns Hopkins University, Covid data set (rather than the ICMR data used in first half of the note on active cases), as this was the data used in earlier research.
4/covid Based on crnt ratios(JHU data), 22 mi cumulative corona cases imply 2.5lakh cumulative #COVID deaths by June 1st week. Deaths may be higher if oxygen is unavailable in rural SHCs or inadequate in urban. #UP, #Bihar etc may hv to enlist/finance #Pvt doctors(O2 cylinders)
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