Yesterday, after a long discussion with a close family member who is a US MD phd, we agreed that with world's best #contagion models (% masks & social interaction) available in world today, the covid take-off could at best have been predicted 7 to 10 days before it exploded...2/
2/covid #Covid Pragmatic suggestion is to ban all #Social gatherings of > 7-10 people (indoors & outdoors), till curve turns down, but don't stop economic activity (w cumplusory masking, distancing). Once curve flattens, outdoor gathering restrictions can be eased with masking
3/covid Cities/towns/urban,/semi urban; rural markets/melas areas are where there is the greatest interaction between people (mobility & personal interaction are the key parameters in these virus spread models)
4/covid #COVID Indoor social gathering restriction may hv to remain till active cases are <200,000; Unless #indoor area has #HEPA filters and/or #UV lights for eliminating virus from the air inside rooms/halls: Govts(C&S) must urgently incentivize HEPA/UV installation
5/covid There is now a clear consensus, that speedy & universal #vaccination is critical to containing the virus and its current & potential new mutations. Severe/critical sickness requires focused sln: Key distinction is btwn those with & w/o co-morbidities; latter...6/covid
6/covid Latter can be treated at Secondary Health Centers augmented with prefab halls, beds, oxygen supply & trained nurses to administer simple drugs. More Hospital facilities needed for those with co-morbidities (heart, etc), as treatment for COVID per se, is still undeveloped
7/covid 🙏🏼Focus on the world-wide Lessons of Covid management, and apply them in #India🙏🏼 (instead of pushing pet projects & programs like doubling Govt health expenditures). One of many lessons👇🏼
8/covid One model whose projections we discussed(see 1st tweet in thread) is at…
10/covid Union & (lrg)State Govts, should setup 2 level structure under @PMOIndia & #CMOs, to handle crisis: (1) A COVID advisory group of epidemiologists, doctors, sociologists, economists, (2) An operational group headed by a super bureaucrat & hospitals, producer-supplier reps
11/covid (further to 6/covid): All Primary Health Centers (PHCs) can also be used as "#Screening #centers". New Screening Centers may also have to be set up in highly affected cities/towns, for the duration of the epidemic. Screening at #SHC level must also asses co-morbidities Image
12/covid #SciMe (=Scientific Method) yesterday I got India #Covid data(till April 23) & started organizing & examining it (#BeWare: It's not as easy as it sounds, unless U already hv a proved theory, which explains it. In current uncertain situation, it's Hi risk). Preliminary🧵
13/covid Dr Devi Shetty is the kind of well informed & pragmatic professional, who would make an excellent member/co-chair/chair (depending on time availability) of the advisory group mentioned at 10/covid:…
14/covid India needs #Standardized #Protocols for treatment of Mild, Moderate, Severe COVID infection (with & w/o co-morbidities), to maximize effectiveness of an overloaded health system. Dr G Kang confirmed that there's a epidemic of drug #misuse by scared patients, doctors.
15/covid What we recommended at 6/covid is consistent with what actually worked at district level (with much smaller numbers)…
16/covid 👇🏼For those who like to be well informed about COVID treatment👇🏼 [+watch O2 levels, & adopt prone position when Oxygen level is below normal( or 92) and arrange for supplemental oxygen if it's falling below 90].…
17/covid For kind attention of #Union & #State #Governments and #NGOs which control religious contributions and funds. 🙏🏼🙏🏼🙏🏼
18/covid (16b/covid) Health ministry guidelines for home quarantine of mild covid cases:…
19/covid We also need to support NGOs who are providing 2 types of "self Quarantine" facilities, for those who don't have the space or capacity for home quarantine; (1) For the infected who are asymptomatic or have mild symptoms, (2) Un-infected Family members of COVID infected.

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More from @dravirmani

30 Apr
Based on S curve analysis of Indian cases, I conclude, mutations are reason for explosive 2nd wave. I model spread by dividing infections into 2 streams(original & mutations)=>The case spread curve is likely to flatten by 1st week of July at <22 mi cases.…
2/covid For S curve methodology and modeling framework developed by us, please see the @EgrowFoundation research paper,…
3/covid Please note that for the formal model of new/cumulated corona cases, I have used data on India from the Johns Hopkins University, Covid data set (rather than the ICMR data used in first half of the note on active cases), as this was the data used in earlier research.
Read 4 tweets
2 Apr
#PCP "#CCPapologists(🐍), #CCPcollaborators(🤑) and #CCPusefulIdiots(🤡), must unitedly oppose the Pompeo-Blinken US-China policy, which has bipartisan support and 75% (?) public approval"
2/chus #US-#China contest has 2 elements: A traditional great power contest and an ideological struggle, between a free market, open democratic system and Socialist-market economy, society, polity run on the principles of "Scientific Socialism"(Marx-Lenin-Stalin-Mao-Deng-Xi)!..3/
3/chus It differs in two important ways from the US-Soviet contest. 1) China's #socialist #market #economy is much more efficient,productive & profitable than Soviet planned, loss making, economy, (2) China is far more integrated with Global economy(incl US, EU) than USSR was..4/
Read 4 tweets
31 Mar
#PIP Western(& Indian?) foreign policy experts and foreign trade negotiators, believe that the economics of merchandise trade, is the same as the economics of patents/intellectual property and the economics of the digital economy, because they are clueless about the last two! p
2/pip Intellectual Property (#IPR): The public economics of #Patents clearly shows that the optimal length of a patent depends on two opposing effects. Greater duration increases the profits from innovation, but patents slow use of new tech & discourge further innovation...2/
3/pip Optimal patent length is diff for diff econ's & diff for diff industries(proved empirically). Optimal length is V diff for developed cntrys(US, EU) than for EMEs(India, Brazil, SA). There's no ec justification for US/EU imposing its view. Int rules must split the diff...4/
Read 8 tweets
24 Feb
I hope our economics teachers, indoctrinated with marxist ideology, will be able to understand this and explain it to their students! 🧐🤔
Read 8 tweets
12 Feb
Our territorial claims are known by our map; Has the "Tibetan Govt in exile", which Indian hawks want India to recognize as the "Govt of Tibet", ever accepted in word or deed, that it's the true boundary between India and Tibet? Has any other country in the world (except Bhutan)?
2/tibet 👍🏼👏👏👏 (incidentally the US has also, directly or indirectly, accepted our boundary in NE). Question mark still remains about #Tibet-#Ladakh boundary!
Read 4 tweets
12 Feb
#HBYN #SciMe With th availability of commercial satellite maps, is it so difficult for researchers to map #CCPPLA's history of #Creeping #Acquisition on Tibet-India border, over 30-40 yrs; so we have clear time lines, & can end th endless bickering among ourselves about facts?🤔
2/agp #SciMe The purpose of satellite based analysis is to determine & time stamp, the facts about roads, defensive/offensive structures & troop movements (if possible), of both countries; These, can then be combined with historical evidence on claims, to do FP/NS analysis!
3/ago This #data gathering by neutral researchers is necessary for convincing #Patriots, who question the factual basis of every national security & foreign policy statement of their democratically elected government ! 😎
Read 6 tweets

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