Our dual S-curve model of propagation of mutations(blue & orange) is right on track (see egrowfoundation.org/research/india… ) with an underestimate of ~ 2% for total cases (green; had warned of potential underestimate of up to 10%, due to slower slowdown than predicted by model):
2/scurve Corresponding curves for Madhya Pradesh, which was the furthest ahead in returning to normalcy (as of June 3)
3/scurve At the other end, Tamil Nadu is most distant (along with Assam) from normalization. Note that the blue curve(up to June3) was still on the rising part of the predicted curve (orange). Consequently total cases (green) are still some way from flattening out, in TN.
4/scurve Please note that the green curve (in all the graphs) is the total confirmed cases up to June 3, 2021 and the predicted value from June 4, to June 30...5/
5/scurve Delhi is better than the all India average

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More from @dravirmani

10 Jun
Econ101: Any market economist who has worked on developing countries knows about the difference between social and economic return to investment, & how government must act based on this difference: Govt must invest directly or give financial incentives to private investors
2/* (correction) ….difference between social and private return ...
3/scba Difference btwn social & private return has to b larger than cost of intervention, incl inefficiency induced by taxation & the administrative costs(+corruption) of intervention. Beware of political benefits being mis-represented as social benefits. Benefit/cost <0 is posbl
Read 4 tweets
30 Apr
Based on S curve analysis of Indian cases, I conclude, mutations are reason for explosive 2nd wave. I model spread by dividing infections into 2 streams(original & mutations)=>The case spread curve is likely to flatten by 1st week of July at <22 mi cases. dravirmani.blogspot.com/2021/04/indias…
2/covid For S curve methodology and modeling framework developed by us, please see the @EgrowFoundation research paper, egrowfoundation.org/research/effec…
3/covid Please note that for the formal model of new/cumulated corona cases, I have used data on India from the Johns Hopkins University, Covid data set (rather than the ICMR data used in first half of the note on active cases), as this was the data used in earlier research.
Read 4 tweets
25 Apr
Yesterday, after a long discussion with a close family member who is a US MD phd, we agreed that with world's best #contagion models (% masks & social interaction) available in world today, the covid take-off could at best have been predicted 7 to 10 days before it exploded...2/
2/covid #Covid Pragmatic suggestion is to ban all #Social gatherings of > 7-10 people (indoors & outdoors), till curve turns down, but don't stop economic activity (w cumplusory masking, distancing). Once curve flattens, outdoor gathering restrictions can be eased with masking
3/covid Cities/towns/urban,/semi urban; rural markets/melas areas are where there is the greatest interaction between people (mobility & personal interaction are the key parameters in these virus spread models)
Read 19 tweets
2 Apr
#PCP "#CCPapologists(🐍), #CCPcollaborators(🤑) and #CCPusefulIdiots(🤡), must unitedly oppose the Pompeo-Blinken US-China policy, which has bipartisan support and 75% (?) public approval"
2/chus #US-#China contest has 2 elements: A traditional great power contest and an ideological struggle, between a free market, open democratic system and Socialist-market economy, society, polity run on the principles of "Scientific Socialism"(Marx-Lenin-Stalin-Mao-Deng-Xi)!..3/
3/chus It differs in two important ways from the US-Soviet contest. 1) China's #socialist #market #economy is much more efficient,productive & profitable than Soviet planned, loss making, economy, (2) China is far more integrated with Global economy(incl US, EU) than USSR was..4/
Read 4 tweets
31 Mar
#PIP Western(& Indian?) foreign policy experts and foreign trade negotiators, believe that the economics of merchandise trade, is the same as the economics of patents/intellectual property and the economics of the digital economy, because they are clueless about the last two! p
2/pip Intellectual Property (#IPR): The public economics of #Patents clearly shows that the optimal length of a patent depends on two opposing effects. Greater duration increases the profits from innovation, but patents slow use of new tech & discourge further innovation...2/
3/pip Optimal patent length is diff for diff econ's & diff for diff industries(proved empirically). Optimal length is V diff for developed cntrys(US, EU) than for EMEs(India, Brazil, SA). There's no ec justification for US/EU imposing its view. Int rules must split the diff...4/
Read 8 tweets
27 Mar
#USA is a free democracy, #India is a "partly free" democracy
#FOE Japan is a free democracy, India is a partly free democracy: Compare the ratio of critical/unfavorable articles, to favorable articles, in the top 3 news sources in Japan & India respectively, to find which press is freer! #SciMe 1st data, 2nd Analysis, 3rd Policy/views!🧐🤔
3/demo #Majoritarianism & freedom: Compare treatment of minorities in USA(non-christian), Japan(Korean etc) & India (Muslims): In particular plot over 70yrs th % of minority pop on same graph & compare decadal changes[summarizes it's discrimination(in cntry) & opportunities(ROW)]
Read 66 tweets

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