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Dr Arvind Virmani🇮🇳 Profile picture
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1 Jul, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Who lost Afghanistan? (1) Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld did not want to invest in the Afghan army—and by the end of 2003, just 6,000 Afghan soldiers had been trained. " ...2/
2/afpak (2)Taliban fled across the border to Pakistan, where they regrouped, raised funds, recruited in madrasahs & trained with Pakistan’s security service, Inter-Services Intelligence. Many ISI officers had worked with Taliban leaders for decades & shared their worldview..3/
3/afpak Pakistan’s role turned out to be fatal. Even as USA prosecuted its war in Afghanistan, those it fought found refuge & training in cntry next door. But #Bush admin turned a blind eye to Pakistan’s machinations; it provided it $12 bil (>$6bi reimbursement for military ops)"
4/afpak (3)US regional experts didn't understand that #Islamic #Republic of #Pakistan (#IRP) was th oldest Islamic republic (1956),1 of 4 in world. Others r #IRM(1958), #IRI(1979) & #Islamic #Republic of #Afghanistan, fathered by #IRP in 2004[Fooled by PakArmy's Sandhurst nartive

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More from @dravirmani

Dr Arvind Virmani🇮🇳 Profile picture
30 Jun
"We ❤️ #FAANG #monopolists " Beware #Goebbles says :" If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it." (Hint: Count how many times we have heard this same #theme, in the same #media, by the same #authors)
2/goe #Economics101: If in an industry, u create a counter to an existing monopoly, u turn it into a duopoly, if u create 2nd counter it becomes an oligopoly. The first step in creating completion. The second step is to create a regulatory system that fosters/promotes competition
3/goe #RegulatoryEc The danger to society from #Asymmetric info & #moral hazard in #Finance was 10x that of goods monopolies, the danger from #SocialMedia & #E-com monopolies is 10x that of Financial collapse! Need 21st C regulations for latter! 🙏🏼don't make it a partisan issue
Read 4 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani🇮🇳 Profile picture
10 Jun
Econ101: Any market economist who has worked on developing countries knows about the difference between social and economic return to investment, & how government must act based on this difference: Govt must invest directly or give financial incentives to private investors
2/* (correction) ….difference between social and private return ...
3/scba Difference btwn social & private return has to b larger than cost of intervention, incl inefficiency induced by taxation & the administrative costs(+corruption) of intervention. Beware of political benefits being mis-represented as social benefits. Benefit/cost <0 is posbl
Read 4 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani🇮🇳 Profile picture
9 Jun
Our dual S-curve model of propagation of mutations(blue & orange) is right on track (see egrowfoundation.org/research/india… ) with an underestimate of ~ 2% for total cases (green; had warned of potential underestimate of up to 10%, due to slower slowdown than predicted by model):
2/scurve Corresponding curves for Madhya Pradesh, which was the furthest ahead in returning to normalcy (as of June 3)
3/scurve At the other end, Tamil Nadu is most distant (along with Assam) from normalization. Note that the blue curve(up to June3) was still on the rising part of the predicted curve (orange). Consequently total cases (green) are still some way from flattening out, in TN.
Read 5 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani🇮🇳 Profile picture
30 Apr
Based on S curve analysis of Indian cases, I conclude, mutations are reason for explosive 2nd wave. I model spread by dividing infections into 2 streams(original & mutations)=>The case spread curve is likely to flatten by 1st week of July at <22 mi cases. dravirmani.blogspot.com/2021/04/indias…
2/covid For S curve methodology and modeling framework developed by us, please see the @EgrowFoundation research paper, egrowfoundation.org/research/effec…
3/covid Please note that for the formal model of new/cumulated corona cases, I have used data on India from the Johns Hopkins University, Covid data set (rather than the ICMR data used in first half of the note on active cases), as this was the data used in earlier research.
Read 4 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani🇮🇳 Profile picture
25 Apr
Yesterday, after a long discussion with a close family member who is a US MD phd, we agreed that with world's best #contagion models (% masks & social interaction) available in world today, the covid take-off could at best have been predicted 7 to 10 days before it exploded...2/
2/covid #Covid Pragmatic suggestion is to ban all #Social gatherings of > 7-10 people (indoors & outdoors), till curve turns down, but don't stop economic activity (w cumplusory masking, distancing). Once curve flattens, outdoor gathering restrictions can be eased with masking
3/covid Cities/towns/urban,/semi urban; rural markets/melas areas are where there is the greatest interaction between people (mobility & personal interaction are the key parameters in these virus spread models)
Read 19 tweets
Dr Arvind Virmani🇮🇳 Profile picture
2 Apr
#PCP "#CCPapologists(🐍), #CCPcollaborators(🤑) and #CCPusefulIdiots(🤡), must unitedly oppose the Pompeo-Blinken US-China policy, which has bipartisan support and 75% (?) public approval"
2/chus #US-#China contest has 2 elements: A traditional great power contest and an ideological struggle, between a free market, open democratic system and Socialist-market economy, society, polity run on the principles of "Scientific Socialism"(Marx-Lenin-Stalin-Mao-Deng-Xi)!..3/
3/chus It differs in two important ways from the US-Soviet contest. 1) China's #socialist #market #economy is much more efficient,productive & profitable than Soviet planned, loss making, economy, (2) China is far more integrated with Global economy(incl US, EU) than USSR was..4/
Read 4 tweets

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