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Laurie Garrett Profile picture
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30 Jul, 5 tweets, 2 min read
What has hair on fire in Atlanta HQ @CDCgov ?
Excerpts (thread) cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/7…
"In July 2021, following multiple large public events in a Barnstable County, Mass., 469 #COVID19 cases were id'ed among Massachusetts residents who had traveled to the town during..."
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2/
 "...July 3–17; 346 (74%) occurred in fully vaccinated persons. Testing identified the #DeltaVariant in 90% of specimens from 133 patients. Cycle threshold values were similar among specimens from patients who were fully vaccinated and those who were not."
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3/ "Vaccine prods rec'ed by persons experiencing breakthrough infections were Pfizer-BioNTech (46%), Moderna (38%), & Janssen (16%)...
"79% reported signs or symptoms, w/the most common being cough, headache, sore throat, myalgia & fever."
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4/ "Event organizers & local health jurisdictions shld assess the need for additional measures, including limiting capacity at gatherings or event postponement, based on current rates of #COVID19 transmission, population vaccination coverage, and other factors."
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5/ So, @NYCMayor -- about that mega-concert in Central Park you're planning for 3 weeks from now? You know, the one: Aug. 21 “homecoming concert” — produced by Clive Davis w/Bruce Springsteen, Patti Smith, Jennifer Hudson, Paul Simon, Carlos Santana, etc.
Rethink this, please.

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More from @Laurie_Garrett

Laurie Garrett Profile picture
23 Jul
Independent epidemiologists pool their models to forecast #COVID19 trends in the US. The latest sees horror ahead if #vaccination rates stay as they are & the super-transmitter #DeltaVariant remains responsible for >80% of all new infections.
covid19scenariomodelinghub.org/viz.html
MORE
2/ We are in Scenario D right now, which would put us at the beginning of a #COVID19 surge in the USA that won't peak until late Fall or early Winter.
The key issue if the vastly more infectious #DeltaVariant which is minimally 3Xs more transmissible than "normal" #SARSCoV2 .
AND
3/ Increasing evidence that fully vaccinated people can carry #DeltaVariant & pass it on to others. There is evidence of this in Los Angeles now.
AND
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
20 Jul
A new @AnnenbergPenn poll on Americans and #COVID19 offers some tough news. First, about a third of Americans believe the Chinese government made #SARSCoV2 deliberately, as a bioweapon. And that toll has increased since April. annenbergpublicpolicycenter.org/science-commun…
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2/ Couple that, according to @AnnenbergPenn , with belief by more than half of Americans that #COVID19 came out of the #Wuhan Inst. of Virology -- either deliberately, or accidentally, leaked. Only 13% are sure #SARSCoV2 did NOT come out of the WIV lab.
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3/ And @AnnenbergPenn finds that 25% of Americans actually believe -- either absolutely surely or maybe -- that @BillGates has put microchips in #COVID19 #vaccines for some unstated purpose (beyond the zillion ways we are already monitored via our cell phones).
MORE Image
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
15 Jul
This Guangdong Provincial Cntr for Disease Control & Prevention study is scary. Thanks @larrybrilliant for tweeting.
My take:
1.) A person came down w/#COVID19 in Guangzhou, testing + May 21, 2021;
2.) By June18 another 167 infections were id'ed, all frm the 1st index case.
MORE
3.) Infection was caused by #DeltaVariant #SARSCoV2 so all the infected were quarantined & PCR tested daily.
4.) And "the viral load of the first positive test of Delta infections was ~1000 times higher than" than seen w/2020 Wuhan forms of the virus.
MORE
5.) In this early, ASYMPTOMATIC stage of infection the #DeltaVariant cases had "faster viral replication rate and more infectiousness" to others.
6.) These ppl had huge nose swab viral levels: 81% of samples contained >600,000copies/mL, while only 19% of original...
MORE
Read 7 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
8 Jul
If you have been obsessing over the origins of #SARSCoV2 -- including the "lab leak theory" -- you need to read this very important new paper:
zenodo.org/record/5075888…
It's written by scientists whose life work is figuring out where viruses come from.
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2/ They conclude:
"there is a substantial body of scientific evidence supporting a zoonotic origin for
#SARSCoV2. While the possibility of a laboratory accident cannot be entirely dismissed...this conduit for emergence is highly unlikely relative to the
numerous..."
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3/
 "...& repeated human-animal contacts that occur routinely in the wildlife trade. Failure to investigate the zoonotic origin thru collaborative & carefully coordinated studies wld leave the world vulnerable to future #pandemics arising frm the same" animal/human interactions.
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
25 Jun
European threat assessment of #DeltaVariant #COVID19 :
"Based on the available evidence, the #SARSCoV2 Delta (B.1.617.2) variant of concern (VOC) is 40-60% more transmissible than the Alpha (Β.1.1.7) VOC and..."
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ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/…
2/
 "...may be associated with higher risk of hospitalization.
Furthermore...those who have only received the 1st dose of a 2-dose #vaccination course are less well protected against infection w/the #DeltaVariant than against other variants, regardless of the vaccine type."
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3/
 "However, full vaccination provides nearly equivalent protection against the #DeltaVariant. Based on the est'ed transmission advantage of Delta...
70% of new #SARSCoV2 infections are projected to be due to this variant in the EU/EEA by early August & 90% by the end of August."
Read 4 tweets
Laurie Garrett Profile picture
24 Jun
As the incidence of #DeltaVariant #SARSCoV2 rises in the US, India says a worse, "Delta+" strain has emerged that bypasses the @AstraZeneca #vaccine .
Meanwhile, the #COVID19 crisis in India begat a mucormycosis -- "black fungus" -- nightmare.
MORE
washingtonpost.com/world/interact…
2/
 It reminds me of the early days of AIDS and cryptococcosis pneumonia. Both fungal infections arise when patients' immune systems are weakened.
“It’s a form of flesh-eating fungus that destroys tissues as it grows. If it involves the sinus, they have to be cleared."
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3/ "If it involves the eye — the eyeball, lids, muscles around the eye have to be removed, leaving behind the bare, bony socket.”
The drug used for treatment, amphotericin B, is expensive, in short supply, is infused & has lots of side effects.
MORE
Read 4 tweets

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