Yesterday, the NSW Premier said the state's Reff was 1.3
On today's front page, @smh showed what that really means
The paper also called out thousands of mystery cases, which are fuelling outbreaks across NSW and in other states
1/5
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
On today's front page, @smh showed what that really means
The paper also called out thousands of mystery cases, which are fuelling outbreaks across NSW and in other states
1/5
#COVID19nsw #covidnsw #covid19aus
In general, I avoid projections like ... the plague (sorry)
But I've realised simply reporting the Reff fails a principle of data journalism - to unpack the data's implications
This lesson is thanks to the very clever tweeps I talk to here and the reporting of @normanswan
2/5
But I've realised simply reporting the Reff fails a principle of data journalism - to unpack the data's implications
This lesson is thanks to the very clever tweeps I talk to here and the reporting of @normanswan
2/5
With 470 cases / day (avg), seemingly small variations in the Reff lead to disastrously different outcomes
3/5
3/5
1.3 is higher than the Reff on covid19data.com.au via @profesterman. And I've heard that another group calculates it as just under 1.1.
There will be differences and margins of error
But in this circumstance, perfect is the enemy of the good
4/5
There will be differences and margins of error
But in this circumstance, perfect is the enemy of the good
4/5
I was shocked to hear the Premier say 1.3
The very mention of the Reff shows the focus now is not wilds; it is sheer number of cases
So I worked with @smh to show what 1.3 means for NSW if nothing changes
h/t @lucy_carroll @LucyCormack @j_mccaw
5/5
smh.com.au/politics/nsw/n…
The very mention of the Reff shows the focus now is not wilds; it is sheer number of cases
So I worked with @smh to show what 1.3 means for NSW if nothing changes
h/t @lucy_carroll @LucyCormack @j_mccaw
5/5
smh.com.au/politics/nsw/n…
Update: Based on this calculation, the Reff has ticked upwards from 1.21 to 1.35
https://twitter.com/profesterman/status/1428162619609731080
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