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Arjun G Nagarajan Profile picture
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26 Aug, 3 tweets, 2 min read
Private #Capex announcements for #Metals, Electronics, ITES, Pharma well above pre-pandemic levels. Nearly 50% of these capex announcements post-#COVID19 have come from BSE200 companies (exBFSI and IT); pointing to the formal sector. Capex announcements...(1/3)
...for the private sector show a concentration in metals (35%), electronics (14%), ITES/data centres (9%) and drugs/pharma (4%). These shares are much higher than their shares in FY19. Metals stand out with their 35% share in total announcements, mentioned above, up...(2/3)
...from 10% in FY19, largely on the global metal cycle upturn. The PLI has led to an increase in announcements in electronics from 9%. The COVID19 led push in ITES/data centres from 2.4% and drugs/pharma from 1% in FY19 on favourable global positioning.(3/3)

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Arjun G Nagarajan Profile picture
25 Aug
Will #India see an increase in cases like #Kerala? Kerala daily infections appear to have just seen an increase after its recent festival ended. This appears to have been just after a surge in mobility indicators. The festive season for India as a whole is set to start...(1/5)
...early October and extending into mid-November. Like seen in Kerala mobility indicators that have just near normalised are expected to see a sharp increase. If Kerala #COVID19 cases rise now, can one extrapolate this into India infections? One cannot say for sure. But...(2/5)
...if one were to go by the #seroprevalence framework tweeted earlier, it appears unlikely for the rest of India to follow a Kerala like surge. Do recollect here that in the sero survey, one state that recorded very lowest seroprevalence was Kerala (44%) and the highest...(3/5)
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Arjun G Nagarajan Profile picture
23 Aug
One 'hawk' does not initiate normalisation. The markets were keenly awaiting the #MPC #minutes. And one can comfortably say that the details of what was discussed was hardly as hawkish as the markets had assumed soon after the policy. Prof.Jayanth Varma was the single...(1/12)
...dissenter in the August monetary policy. He voted against the status-quo accommodative policy on the following key counts. Firstly, he believed that the reverse repo rate must not remain at current levels (3.35%) and that a phased normalisation was warranted. He...(2/12)
...remained concerned of the #RBI continuing its accommodative policy given his expectation that COVID-19 would last for another 3-5 years. He sees inflationary pressures turning persistent and also views the adverse effects of the pandemic to only be limited to select...(3/12)
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Arjun G Nagarajan Profile picture
11 Aug
China PMI weakness ahead? Following up on the quoted tweet, one zeroes in on #China's #manufacturing #PMI. Key Asian economies have seen weakness on the back of a rise in their #COVID-19 curves and related restrictions on activity. China has been experiencing multiple...(1/4)
...issues. The recent policy shock aside, from mid-July, China saw power outages, significant floods, all in provinces housing key manufacturing-hubs. Adding to this, the recent surge in COVID-cases have led to a string of lockdowns/restrictions across 14 provinces. While...(2/4)
...the extreme weather disturbances in July was expected to have dented China's production, the PMI manufacturing numbers were only marginally lower. Focus now shifts on August activity that is now expected to tag its Asian neighbours like Malaysia, Vietnam and...(3/4)
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Arjun G Nagarajan Profile picture
9 Aug
Is the #RBI's #VRRR move policy normalisation? Fridays' note argued that the upward calibration of the variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) was not a sign of normalisation of policy, especially when the Governor said it himself explicitly. The note argued that the VRRR...(1/12)
...calibration was just shifting of monies from one pocket to another, especially when the #callmoney rate is still 22bps below the reverse repo rate. The focus therefore is to bring the call rate closer to the policy rate, when system liquidity is on the rise. One can...(2/12)
...justify the market narrative on three counts. Firstly, the markets saw a surprise dissent against the policy decision (5:1) and noted that it was not unanimous. Secondly, the 60bps upward revision to inflation created a flutter especially when the RBI maintained a...(3/12)
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Arjun G Nagarajan Profile picture
16 Jul
Have faith in the Fed. In his testimony to the Congress/Senate Banking Committee, Powell urged lawmakers to have faith in the Fed's judgement. The Fed Chair reiterated his message that inflation would stay elevated for a few more months before moderating...(1/6)
...and that it would be too risky to tighten policy too early. He said:
“The challenge we’re confronting is how to react to this inflation, which is larger than we had expected or that anybody had expected. To the extent that it is temporary, then it would not...(2/6)
...be appropriate to react to that. But to the extent that it gets longer and longer, we’ll have to continue to revaluate the risks that would affect inflation expectations and would be of longer duration and that’s what we’re monitoring...”.
On the nature of...(3/6)
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Arjun G Nagarajan Profile picture
16 Jul
#Crude down 5% in the last few days. Crude prices have been correcting over the last few days by around 5% from its recent high of $75.4 on Wednesday. This comes on the back of press reports quoting #OPEC+ sources that the #UAE had reached a compromise. UAE's baseline...(1/4)
...output is expected to be increased to 3.65mbpd from the current 3.17mmbpd. This is broadly in line with recent market expectations. This eases the markets' read of a tight supply situation and helps soften the demand-supply balance, especially given the...(2/4)
...expectation of a demand pickup in H2 of 2021. Further on the Iranian wildcard we had written about in an earlier tweet, Iran is not expected to return to the negotiating table with the #US until it forms a new government, that is expected to take office...(3/4)
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