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Rick Palacios Jr.

2 Sep, 10 tweets, 3 min read

Just surveyed ~400 pro remodelers. Top 4 themes: 1) Big remodels all the rage; 2) Many remodelers are booked until 2022+; 3) Product lead times & labor shortages still bad (see chart); 4) Homeowners fixing & staying put, not selling. Commentary from across country to follow…

#Texas remodeler: “I can’t grow with 20 week lead times on basic products. I started asking my suppliers what products are easiest to install. I don’t have enough labor to spend more time installing a touchless faucet than absolutely necessary.”

#Texas design-build firm: “My clients are essentially flipping their homes, but they aren’t selling. They want something fresh & new.”

#Northwest remodeler: “Largest hurdle is lead times. Can’t get product or any type of material for at least 10 weeks.”

#Southwest home improvement pro: “Some of my manufacturers have temporarily discontinued product lines & are focusing on lines with available materials. It’s helped lead times a bit.”

#Midwest remodeler: “Materials are limited, & production capacity is strained due to lack of labor. I get that. But lead times have to come down or I will start losing business.”

#Florida remodeler: “Labor won’t show up overnight. Installers are our biggest struggle.”

#Northeast home improvement pro: “Despite raising my labor rates & adding incentives, I still can’t find enough labor to complete the projects in queue."

#Northeast design-build firm: “Consumers are turning current home into dream home given resale/new home market too competitive.”

#Southeast design-build firm: “Typically, whole home remodels are sold right after renovations are done, but more and more clients are deciding to stay in their homes after fixing it up.” THE END

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Rick Palacios Jr.

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8 Sep

Companies tied to housing revising guidance due to supply chain. Commentary from our builder survey this month indicates things getting worse before they get better. Homes sitting, waiting for materials (dead days). Big delays in windows. Delta outbreaks. In sum, a crapshoot. 🧵

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Just surveyed 6,000+ real estate agents across country. Top themes from our 1st ever RESALE agent survey: 1) Buyer fatigue, w/rumblings of remorse. 2) Bidding wars a bit less bonkers. 3) Cash is King & ton of investors. 4) Inventory gridlock. Commentary across country to follow…

#LosAngeles agent: “20-minute allotted home viewing time slots with offers due next day by noon, & buyers are asked to give up every contingency under the sun.”

#NYC agent: “Luxury home buyers feel the market is overpriced & have backed off.”

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Rick Palacios Jr.

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19 Aug

Doing monthly review of our macro housing/econ 350+slide deck. Five charts grabbing my attention for August:

1/5: Home price appreciation finally leveling off. Blue line is our national index, which appears to have peaked at +20% YOY last two months.

2/5: Similar story on new home prices according to builders we survey across the country. Rate of YOY price increases tapering off a bit in July at +19% YOY.

3/5: Our Google apartment search proxy keeps hitting new highs. No real seasonal blip so far in 2021, which is showing up in crazy rent growth figures currently.

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Rick Palacios Jr.

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6 Aug

Analyzing July new home trends from our just published monthly builder survey. Top 3 themes: 1) Frenzy phase for housing is over, but still solid demand. 2) Fewer builders restricting sales. 3) Hitting price ceilings in more markets. Commentary from across the country to follow.

#Austin builder: “Builders are starting to offer incentives again to drive traffic and sales.”

#Dallas builder: “We have hit price ceilings in the majority of our submarkets.”

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Rick Palacios Jr.

@RickPalaciosJr

26 Jul

Land is the most important yet least transparent part of homebuilding. To help, here’s commentary from land brokers across the country per our July survey. Top themes: 1) Builders going further out for deals. 2) Bigger land deals are back. 3) Development delays & lot shortages.