Just surveyed 6,000+ real estate agents across country. Top themes from our 1st ever RESALE agent survey: 1) Buyer fatigue, w/rumblings of remorse. 2) Bidding wars a bit less bonkers. 3) Cash is King & ton of investors. 4) Inventory gridlock. Commentary across country to follow…
#LosAngeles agent: “20-minute allotted home viewing time slots with offers due next day by noon, & buyers are asked to give up every contingency under the sun.”
#NYC agent: “Luxury home buyers feel the market is overpriced & have backed off.”
#Phoenix agent: “Buyers are nervous they’re overpaying. Sellers are nervous there will be a correction & they missed opportunity to list at a premium. Both sides are crippled with questions & fear.”
#Houston agent: “Some of my clients are waiting to buy due to the high cost/ bidding war. They feel that any house they purchase will be upside down in equity due to the bidding wars that are going on.”
#Boston agent: “Cash is King. More buyers coming to the table with cash for homes priced at $850K+.”
#Bridgeport CT agent: “With the Delta variant, some sellers are hoping for another round of panic buyers.”
#EastBay CA agent: “Finally slowing down, so instead of 40 offers on the homes, we are seeing 6 to 10 offers. Still selling but without the drama.”
#Tampa agent: “Can you imagine how crazy we’re going to be when Canadians are allowed to come in. Their money is burning a hole in their pocket, & they'll be headed here to Florida to spend it.”
#Chicago agent: “Every single weekend since December, I’ve been taking out 1st time buyers ($350k or less). So many offers on the table, & we get declined every single weekend. Just lost 3 more contracts yesterday.”
#Atlanta agent: “Very difficult market for 1st time buyers in $200k to $275k range. Sometimes 50 offers+ & investors are winning! Forget using any assistance programs for 1st time buyers; sellers won’t even consider the offer.”
#Nashville agent: “Some agents write 20 offers for a buyer before they win on a house.”
#Charlotte agent: “Institutional buyers are killing the first-timer.”
#StLouis agent: “Our inventory is choked to almost nothing. People can't list, knowing the lack of homes for sale. We're in gridlock!”
#Columbus OH agent: “Market sucks for FHA buyers. They have almost zero chance to get chosen when cash buyers are going $50k over asking price.”
#Louisville agent: ““All my buyers are paying $15k to $40k over asking. It's the only way to win in these bidding wars. If these people have to sell in 3-5 years due to life changes, they're going to be under water.”
#ColoradoSprings agent: “VA & FHA buyers will be shut out of the market for all intents & purposes unless they have appraisal gap protection.”
#Athens GA agent: “Hard for the average buyer or ‘little man’ to compete. Without cash reserves, buyers do not stand a chance with their offers.”
#Richmond IN agent: “People are making awesome offers to win the multiple offer war, but then trying to renegotiate at inspection time to try & make the price much less than what was accepted.”
#HotSprings AR agent: “At least 1/3 of my buyers are coming from Texas and California.”
#Kalispell MT agent: “Entire state of Montana has been overwhelmed with out-of-state buyers paying cash for properties & pushing purchase prices. Rents are also being pushed to all-time highs. Affordable homes & rentals for our workforce are a major issue.”
#Claremont NH agent: “Beginning to see some buyer pricing resistance in the last couple of weeks & inventory is growing.”
#LakeKenosha IL agent: “Buyers are not going $50k over asking price like they were a month ago.”
#Lansing MI agent: “Starting to see buyers aren’t as quick to guarantee the difference in appraisal value vs. accepted offer price. If they do, they put a limit on the amount they’re willing to pay between appraised value & accepted price.” THE END

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More from @RickPalaciosJr

8 Sep
Companies tied to housing revising guidance due to supply chain. Commentary from our builder survey this month indicates things getting worse before they get better. Homes sitting, waiting for materials (dead days). Big delays in windows. Delta outbreaks. In sum, a crapshoot. 🧵
#Nashville builder: “It's a crap shoot. Some municipalities will issue permits in 1 week, & others are 6-9 months behind. Supply chain is a mess. Windows are now 7 months out, cabinets are 6 months out, etc.”
#Chicago builder: “Build cycle increased due to backordered materials including bathtubs, appliances, & ceramic tile. Trades are much more limited in availability & now have some ‘dead days’ with no activity.”
Read 25 tweets
2 Sep
Just surveyed ~400 pro remodelers. Top 4 themes: 1) Big remodels all the rage; 2) Many remodelers are booked until 2022+; 3) Product lead times & labor shortages still bad (see chart); 4) Homeowners fixing & staying put, not selling. Commentary from across country to follow…
#Texas remodeler: “I can’t grow with 20 week lead times on basic products. I started asking my suppliers what products are easiest to install. I don’t have enough labor to spend more time installing a touchless faucet than absolutely necessary.”
#Texas design-build firm: “My clients are essentially flipping their homes, but they aren’t selling. They want something fresh & new.”
Read 10 tweets
19 Aug
Doing monthly review of our macro housing/econ 350+slide deck. Five charts grabbing my attention for August:

1/5: Home price appreciation finally leveling off. Blue line is our national index, which appears to have peaked at +20% YOY last two months.
2/5: Similar story on new home prices according to builders we survey across the country. Rate of YOY price increases tapering off a bit in July at +19% YOY.
3/5: Our Google apartment search proxy keeps hitting new highs. No real seasonal blip so far in 2021, which is showing up in crazy rent growth figures currently.
Read 5 tweets
6 Aug
Analyzing July new home trends from our just published monthly builder survey. Top 3 themes: 1) Frenzy phase for housing is over, but still solid demand. 2) Fewer builders restricting sales. 3) Hitting price ceilings in more markets. Commentary from across the country to follow.
#Austin builder: “Builders are starting to offer incentives again to drive traffic and sales.”
#Dallas builder: “We have hit price ceilings in the majority of our submarkets.”
Read 21 tweets
26 Jul
Land is the most important yet least transparent part of homebuilding. To help, here’s commentary from land brokers across the country per our July survey. Top themes: 1) Builders going further out for deals. 2) Bigger land deals are back. 3) Development delays & lot shortages.
#SaltLakeCity land broker: “You can't get all the lots you need even when you overpay.”
#SanAntonio land broker: “Getting a vaccine approved took less time than getting land entitled.”
Read 17 tweets
15 Jul
Today's Fed Beige Book updates on housing sound familiar...

#Atlanta Fed
#Dallas Fed
Read 4 tweets

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