Share this page!

Ben M. Profile picture
Twitter logo
19 Sep, 4 tweets, 3 min read
Something strange is happening in Israel!

According to the Israel Govt. Covid19 Dashboard, the share of vaccinated has significantly dropped in some age groups from 9/3 to 9/19.

Why is that? Is it a data adjustment?

#Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus #Covid
Not that while the younger age groups remain similar, the older age groups drop significantly....

Does this possibly suggest that more vaccinated people have died? Or is it a simple data issue?

Here are the links:
- 9/3: archive.is/bQ0GD
- today: datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…
@RanIsraeli Any thoughts?
Here's the (approx) change between the two dates.

Note that, while the highest age groups keep dropping rapidly, the youngest saw a slight increase.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Ben M.

Ben M. Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @USMortality

Ben M. Profile picture
19 Sep
@stkirsch brought up an important point in his @US_FDA vaccine advisory committee presentation.

Why is Pfizer excluding 311 people in its vaccine arm, but only 60 for "protocol deviations"?

That's very odd, indeed. No explanation is given...

1/n
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona
In it's efficiacy calculation Pfizer mentions 8 vs 162 infections, arriving at at VE of 95%. That's correct, but let's assume all or some of those excluded might have been either infected or injured... How would VE look then?
Including all 311-60=251 additional protocol deviations from the vaccine arm, into the calcuation we arrive at -61% VE. Yes negative!
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
18 Sep
Why vaccine efficacy (VE) MUST be calculated by taking into account 'total number of tests', and why calculations based on population are likely misleading/incorrect.

Thread: ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Please like/share/RT!
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

@RWMaloneMD @BretWeinstein @stkirsch
I've recently come across @jsm2334's calculation of VE based on epidemiological data, and share of population.

While the calculations by Prof Morris are correct, it does not address several underlying issues.

To make this analysis easier, I'm only going to focus on the 'All ages >12' & 'Vax (NB)' group.

I get the same results, as the Prof, using population:
- VE against death with/from Covid19 of 69.4%

It appears to be stat. significant; However there might be Sample Ratio Mismatch.
Read 13 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
17 Sep
So Florida is apparently getting hit quite hard.
We can see even in Seniors massive excess death.

So I looked at vaccine data...

1/n
According to this, we can see that ~80% of Senior Floridians are vaccinated at least once.

Ok, that'd still leave a lot of people, likely hundreds of thousands, unprotected.

2/n
But then I looked NYT Vaccine Tracker, and found this county, which has extraordinarily low vaccine uptake.

2/n
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 5 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
10 Sep
Thread on how to calculate Vaccine Efficiacy (VE) as defined by CDC, and deep dive into MA Barnstable County MWWR outbreak case data.

⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Covid_19 #Corona #Coronavirus
In order to Calculate VE, we need to calculate Risk Ratio (RR).
CDC, in their epidemiological handbook, gives this definition/example for Varicella:
Then we can calculate the VE as follows:
Read 10 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
10 Sep
Playing around with VE and p-value calculation.

CDC, gives examples at: cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss…

I copied their example to Google Sheets.

Their example is significant at 90% confidence.

It requires knowledge of "non-case" group. (test negative) do we have that along with vaxx?
AFAIK, CDC does not publish data, grouped by?

Vaccinated: PCR+ / PCR-
Unvaccinated: PCR+ / PCR-

Not even the UK Technical data, has all this information.

Does Israel provide, @RanIsraeli?

So IMO, we cannot even calculate VE properly...
Of course even if we had PCR- (PCR negative tests).

The two groups might still not be comparable to each other... (age/co-morbidities, etc.)
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
24 Aug
#Germany is now a vaccine mandated country:

1) Only vaccinated are allowed
2) Tested are accepted, but self-pay starting 10/11
3) Recovered only valid for 5 months, then 1 booster needed.

What world do we live in?

#MedicalApartheid #Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus
Fun fact though, everyone still has to wear masks and boosters are likely to be rolled out soon...
And now first German state's are starting to only allow vaccinated and 5month-recovered:



It's a joke!
Read 4 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @USMortality has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @USMortality!

Read all threads by @USMortality

:(