THREAD: I spent a lot of the summer interviewing Congressional Black Caucus members from the South. Almost without exception, they now favor legal action to *unpack* their own hyper-safe seats to create more minority opportunities. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"We've only got one of six seats in a state that's a third Black," #LA02 Rep. Troy Carter (D) told me. "If Baton Rouge and Opelousas can be tied in for a second majority-minority district, I'm all in." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"If we're a quarter of the population, we should be a quarter of the seats," #AL07 Rep. Terri Sewell told me. "I'm for broadening the representation of African-Americans across Alabama, instead of concentrating it in my district." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"Some of our [CBC] members are beginning to rethink what the [Black] thresholds should be," said #NC01 Rep. G.K. Butterfield, whose old district (below) was unpacked by a racial redistricting lawsuit. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"If I had drawn the lines, my district would not be 58% Black," #SC06 Rep. Jim Clyburn wrote in an op-ed. "I am hopeful that when redistricting is done after the 2020 Census, stacking and bleaching will not be the primary goals." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"To suggest there is some numerical [50%] barrier that you have to achieve is absurd," said Rep. Bobby Scott, whose old #VA03 (below) was unpacked in 2016. "If the votes are changing, the standard ought to change." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
"I was never comfortable with all the packing," said Rep. Alma Adams (D), whose previous snakelike #NC12 (below) was struck down by courts in 2016. "I think it limits the participation we can have as African-Americans." theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
Tbh, a big factor in this shift: over time, non-Black voters in the metro South (and beyond) have become more open to voting for Black candidates. Today, just 18 of the House's 53 @TheBlackCaucus members represent seats where Blacks are over 50% of the voting age population.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
OREGON: is gaining a sixth district in 2022, which means all five current districts below will need to shed 117k+ residents to make way for #OR06. A quick thread...
Dems have held a 4-1 seat lead since 1996, and control the redistricting trifecta. But, they also have a geography problem: Oregon's Dems are so clustered in Portland that if you were to draw a map based on compactness alone (below), Rs might have a shot at winning 3/6 seats.
In addition, Oregon has a rare tradition of bipartisan cooperation on maps. Earlier this year, Speaker Tina Kotek (D) struck a deal to give Rs equal power on the state house redistricting committee, though many Ds insist they can still ultimately pass a map w/o GOP support.
OHIO: has arguably been the most effective GOP gerrymander of the 2010s. For an entire decade, it's been a 12R-4D rout (below). Zero seats have changed hands.
But now, thanks to a reform passed by voters in 2018, the future of Ohio's map is highly uncertain. A thread...
The reform requires maps keep more cities/counties whole and high bipartisan support to pass a new map. However, if the legislature (and a backup panel) fail to agree, Republicans can pass a map along party lines that's valid for four years only.
If there's a deadlock or Rs simply don't cooperate, Rs could try to pass an *even more* aggressive gerrymander that complies w/ the new county split criteria and packs Dem voters into Cleveland & Columbus for a 13R-2D (!) split (below).
NEW YORK: strategists I've spoken w/ tell me strong census numbers in NYC could help Dems purge as many as *five* of the eight GOP seats in the state.
In the hypothetical below, Dems would gerrymander the current 19D-8R map (left) into as brutal as a 23D-3R rout (right).
In the scenario above, only three Rs would be spared: Reps. Andrew Garbarino #NY02, Elise Stefanik #NY21 and Chris Jacobs #NY23.
Every Dem incumbent would get a double digit Biden seat (including Maloney #NY18 & Delgado #NY19).
A close-up view of NYC in the above scenario: Staten Island Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R)'s #NY11 would take on Red Hook, Sunset Park & parts of Park Slope and flip from Trump +11 to Biden +10.
Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)'s #NY14 would absorb some GOP parts of Westchester.
NEW YORK: given what's happening elsewhere in redistricting, it's tough to imagine Dems holding onto the House without aggressively gerrymandering NY (and bypassing the state's new commission).
I basically see two likely scenarios for Dems in NY. A brief thread...
First: the maximally aggressive play would be to try to convert the current 19D-8R map to 23D-3R. The example below eliminates Reed's #NY23 and flips #NY01 Zeldin, #NY11 Malliotakis and #NY22 Tenney from Trump to Biden 10+ districts.
In this scenario, Dems' approach to #NY24 Katko is a bit of a bank shot. The goal would be to dislodge Katko from his Syracuse base enough to make him vulnerable in a primary from the right, but keep #NY24 blue enough that Dems could win it in the general.
TEXAS: Republicans face a redistricting dilemma. They want to win both the state's new seats, but also need to shore up all *nine* of their incumbents who sit in districts where Biden took 47%+.
The likely solution? Rs draw a new *Democratic* district in Austin. Here's why...
Right now, the TX delegation is 23R-13D. But because Rs currently have the Austin metro area cracked seven ways (below), there are three R incumbents (Roy, Carter, McCaul) sitting in fast-growing Austin-area districts that are unsustainably trending left.
Drawing a new 75%+ Biden "vote sink" district in Austin (below) - as well as packing Dem voters into Rep. Lizzie Fletcher's (D) #TX07 in Houston and Rep. Colin Allred's (D) #TX32 in Dallas - could resolve the GOP's immediate problems all around the state.
NEW JERSEY: has a 10D-2R House delegation after starting the last decade 6D-6R. Since 2016, Dems have picked up three suburban seats in the north (#NJ05, #NJ07 and #NJ11) and one in the south (#NJ03), confining Republicans to just #NJ02 and #NJ04.
However, NJ uses a bipartisan commission for redistricting, w/ each party's insiders getting to pick six members and the state Supreme Court picking a 13th independent "tie-breaker." If the tie-breaker sides w/ a GOP-favored proposal (as in 2011), Dems could be at risk.
Dems would probably be lucky to get away w/ a 10D-2R incumbent protection map. Such a plan (right) would shore up Reps. Andy Kim (#NJ03), Josh Gottheimer (#NJ05), Tom Malinowski (#NJ07), and Mikie Sherrill (#NJ11) by giving them all double-digit Biden seats.