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Ben M. Profile picture
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28 Sep, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Spoiler: I’m working on an analysis that is ground breaking and will flip the whole vaccine narrative around!!! Stay tuned, will post tomorrow. Prob one of my best pieces yet!!!
It’s based on official cdc/study data. Bullet proof IMO
Guys, please stay patient. Still working on write up!

Graphs are finished, but we just made another discovery, that needs to be looked into...

Sorry for the delay...

Still hoping to post today
Posting tonight 9PM PST.

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More from @USMortality

Ben M. Profile picture
30 Sep
🚨 Does #Covid19 Vaccination lead to less COVID-19-Like Illness (CLI)?

A test-negative design study with 41,552 participants looked CLI diagnosis, symptomatic illness, and test positivity by vaccination status.

⬇️ Megathread below... ⬇️ Like & RT 🚨
#Covid #Corona #Coronavirus Image
Let's start from the beginning!

A recent study by Thompson et al., which was published in the @NEJM, funded and features by @CDCgov in its weekly MMWR series, looked at COVID-19 Like Illness (CLI) hospitalizations for the age group 50+. ImageImage
The study authors identified over 40k hospitalizations.

These were not all-cause hospitalizations, but CLI diagnosed hospitalizations, which is a subset of all hospitalizations. Time frame: 1/1/21 - 6/22/21.

The below diagram tries to visualize the study sample (red). Image
Read 44 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
24 Sep
This is from "internal" Israeli report:

Daily tests; It proofs my suspicoun that unvaxxed are tested 70% more than vaxxed.
This heavily skews the VE calculations!
Unfortunately not publicly available, and we also don't even know it by age...

#Covid19 #Covid #Corona #Coronavirus
The original poster has confirmed this to me!

This confirms that the Israeli government is aware of the REAL VE and all Test data by vaxx status; but it is not published - WHY?

Based on this report, the total tests for unvaxxed for this specific calender week made up 53% of total tests.
Unvaxxed that are test eligible (age 3+) only make up 26.7% of the population.
This suggests that unvaxxed are roughly tests 2x as often as vaxxed.
Read 6 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
22 Sep
1/ USA All-cause Excess Mortality. (Up to week 36/2021).

TL;DR: Similar, possibly higher, as last summer.

By age:
- <25: Fairly normal.
- 25-74: More than last year.
- 75+ About the same as last year. (from previous low before outbreak)

#Covid #covid19 #Corona #coronavirus Image
All six age groups: ImageImageImage
Cumulative Excess Deaths up to week 36:
- 2020: 181,323
- 2021: 208,566 (+15% vs same week last year)

Overall:
- 2020: 380,307 deaths (+12.4 %)
- 2021 (until week 38): 208,566 deaths (+9.9%) Image
Read 7 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
19 Sep
Something strange is happening in Israel!

According to the Israel Govt. Covid19 Dashboard, the share of vaccinated has significantly dropped in some age groups from 9/3 to 9/19.

Why is that? Is it a data adjustment?

#Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus #Covid
Not that while the younger age groups remain similar, the older age groups drop significantly....

Does this possibly suggest that more vaccinated people have died? Or is it a simple data issue?

Here are the links:
- 9/3: archive.is/bQ0GD
- today: datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…
@RanIsraeli Any thoughts?
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
19 Sep
@stkirsch brought up an important point in his @US_FDA vaccine advisory committee presentation.

Why is Pfizer excluding 311 people in its vaccine arm, but only 60 for "protocol deviations"?

That's very odd, indeed. No explanation is given...

1/n
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona
In it's efficiacy calculation Pfizer mentions 8 vs 162 infections, arriving at at VE of 95%. That's correct, but let's assume all or some of those excluded might have been either infected or injured... How would VE look then?
Including all 311-60=251 additional protocol deviations from the vaccine arm, into the calcuation we arrive at -61% VE. Yes negative!
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
18 Sep
Why vaccine efficacy (VE) MUST be calculated by taking into account 'total number of tests', and why calculations based on population are likely misleading/incorrect.

Thread: ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Please like/share/RT!
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

@RWMaloneMD @BretWeinstein @stkirsch
I've recently come across @jsm2334's calculation of VE based on epidemiological data, and share of population.

While the calculations by Prof Morris are correct, it does not address several underlying issues.

To make this analysis easier, I'm only going to focus on the 'All ages >12' & 'Vax (NB)' group.

I get the same results, as the Prof, using population:
- VE against death with/from Covid19 of 69.4%

It appears to be stat. significant; However there might be Sample Ratio Mismatch.
Read 13 tweets

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