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Ben M.

24 Sep, 6 tweets, 3 min read

https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1440289999727980550

This is from "internal" Israeli report:

Daily tests; It proofs my suspicoun that unvaxxed are tested 70% more than vaxxed.
This heavily skews the VE calculations!
Unfortunately not publicly available, and we also don't even know it by age...

#Covid19 #Covid #Corona #Coronavirus

https://twitter.com/OS51388957/status/1440289999727980550

https://twitter.com/MarkZlochin/status/1440372465104920577

The original poster has confirmed this to me!

This confirms that the Israeli government is aware of the REAL VE and all Test data by vaxx status; but it is not published - WHY?

https://twitter.com/MarkZlochin/status/1440372465104920577

Based on this report, the total tests for unvaxxed for this specific calender week made up 53% of total tests.
Unvaxxed that are test eligible (age 3+) only make up 26.7% of the population.
This suggests that unvaxxed are roughly tests 2x as often as vaxxed.

https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1439359796751130626

Remember, here I showed that VE is 0, if unvaxxed are tested at 2.3x rate!

This suggests that true VE is likely much much lower, as advertised; (I estimate about 10-30%)

https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1439359796751130626

For a precise calculation we need the age stratified total number of tests by vaxx status.
Hence this is just speculation, but it is very revealing!

@CDCgov

FYI: My FOIA request to CDC was denied... WHY???

@CDCgov @CDCDirector

Please publish the data!

https://twitter.com/USMortality/status/1439985243449008129

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More from @USMortality

Ben M.

@USMortality

22 Sep

1/ USA All-cause Excess Mortality. (Up to week 36/2021).

TL;DR: Similar, possibly higher, as last summer.

By age:
- <25: Fairly normal.
- 25-74: More than last year.
- 75+ About the same as last year. (from previous low before outbreak)

#Covid #covid19 #Corona #coronavirus

All six age groups:

Cumulative Excess Deaths up to week 36:
- 2020: 181,323
- 2021: 208,566 (+15% vs same week last year)

Overall:
- 2020: 380,307 deaths (+12.4 %)
- 2021 (until week 38): 208,566 deaths (+9.9%)

Read 7 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

19 Sep

Something strange is happening in Israel!

According to the Israel Govt. Covid19 Dashboard, the share of vaccinated has significantly dropped in some age groups from 9/3 to 9/19.

Why is that? Is it a data adjustment?

#Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus #Covid

Not that while the younger age groups remain similar, the older age groups drop significantly....

Does this possibly suggest that more vaccinated people have died? Or is it a simple data issue?

Here are the links:
- 9/3: archive.is/bQ0GD
- today: datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…

@RanIsraeli

@RanIsraeli Any thoughts?

Read 4 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

19 Sep

@stkirsch

@stkirsch brought up an important point in his @US_FDA vaccine advisory committee presentation.

Why is Pfizer excluding 311 people in its vaccine arm, but only 60 for "protocol deviations"?

That's very odd, indeed. No explanation is given...

1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Corona

In it's efficiacy calculation Pfizer mentions 8 vs 162 infections, arriving at at VE of 95%. That's correct, but let's assume all or some of those excluded might have been either infected or injured... How would VE look then?

Including all 311-60=251 additional protocol deviations from the vaccine arm, into the calcuation we arrive at -61% VE. Yes negative!

Read 4 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

18 Sep

@RWMaloneMD

Why vaccine efficacy (VE) MUST be calculated by taking into account 'total number of tests', and why calculations based on population are likely misleading/incorrect.

Thread: ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Please like/share/RT!
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

@RWMaloneMD @BretWeinstein @stkirsch

@jsm2334

I've recently come across @jsm2334's calculation of VE based on epidemiological data, and share of population.

While the calculations by Prof Morris are correct, it does not address several underlying issues.

To make this analysis easier, I'm only going to focus on the 'All ages >12' & 'Vax (NB)' group.

I get the same results, as the Prof, using population:
- VE against death with/from Covid19 of 69.4%

It appears to be stat. significant; However there might be Sample Ratio Mismatch.

Read 13 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

17 Sep

So Florida is apparently getting hit quite hard.
We can see even in Seniors massive excess death.

So I looked at vaccine data...

1/n

According to this, we can see that ~80% of Senior Floridians are vaccinated at least once.

Ok, that'd still leave a lot of people, likely hundreds of thousands, unprotected.

2/n

But then I looked NYT Vaccine Tracker, and found this county, which has extraordinarily low vaccine uptake.

2/n

nytimes.com/interactive/20…

Read 5 tweets

Ben M.

@USMortality

10 Sep

Thread on how to calculate Vaccine Efficiacy (VE) as defined by CDC, and deep dive into MA Barnstable County MWWR outbreak case data.

⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Covid_19 #Corona #Coronavirus

In order to Calculate VE, we need to calculate Risk Ratio (RR).
CDC, in their epidemiological handbook, gives this definition/example for Varicella:

Then we can calculate the VE as follows:

Read 10 tweets

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Ben M.

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