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Ben M. Profile picture
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22 Sep, 7 tweets, 4 min read
1/ USA All-cause Excess Mortality. (Up to week 36/2021).

TL;DR: Similar, possibly higher, as last summer.

By age:
- <25: Fairly normal.
- 25-74: More than last year.
- 75+ About the same as last year. (from previous low before outbreak)

#Covid #covid19 #Corona #coronavirus Image
All six age groups: ImageImageImage
Cumulative Excess Deaths up to week 36:
- 2020: 181,323
- 2021: 208,566 (+15% vs same week last year)

Overall:
- 2020: 380,307 deaths (+12.4 %)
- 2021 (until week 38): 208,566 deaths (+9.9%) Image
Excess deaths by z-score map
Left week 34/2020; Right week 34/2021 ImageImage
Excess deaths by week and z-score, all ages: Image
... and by all six age groups. ImageImageImage
Datasource: CDC via USMortality.com

Find all data & sources here: usmortality.com

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More from @USMortality

Ben M. Profile picture
24 Sep
This is from "internal" Israeli report:

Daily tests; It proofs my suspicoun that unvaxxed are tested 70% more than vaxxed.
This heavily skews the VE calculations!
Unfortunately not publicly available, and we also don't even know it by age...

#Covid19 #Covid #Corona #Coronavirus
The original poster has confirmed this to me!

This confirms that the Israeli government is aware of the REAL VE and all Test data by vaxx status; but it is not published - WHY?

Based on this report, the total tests for unvaxxed for this specific calender week made up 53% of total tests.
Unvaxxed that are test eligible (age 3+) only make up 26.7% of the population.
This suggests that unvaxxed are roughly tests 2x as often as vaxxed.
Read 6 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
19 Sep
Something strange is happening in Israel!

According to the Israel Govt. Covid19 Dashboard, the share of vaccinated has significantly dropped in some age groups from 9/3 to 9/19.

Why is that? Is it a data adjustment?

#Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus #Covid
Not that while the younger age groups remain similar, the older age groups drop significantly....

Does this possibly suggest that more vaccinated people have died? Or is it a simple data issue?

Here are the links:
- 9/3: archive.is/bQ0GD
- today: datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…
@RanIsraeli Any thoughts?
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
19 Sep
@stkirsch brought up an important point in his @US_FDA vaccine advisory committee presentation.

Why is Pfizer excluding 311 people in its vaccine arm, but only 60 for "protocol deviations"?

That's very odd, indeed. No explanation is given...

1/n
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona
In it's efficiacy calculation Pfizer mentions 8 vs 162 infections, arriving at at VE of 95%. That's correct, but let's assume all or some of those excluded might have been either infected or injured... How would VE look then?
Including all 311-60=251 additional protocol deviations from the vaccine arm, into the calcuation we arrive at -61% VE. Yes negative!
Read 4 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
18 Sep
Why vaccine efficacy (VE) MUST be calculated by taking into account 'total number of tests', and why calculations based on population are likely misleading/incorrect.

Thread: ⬇️⬇️⬇️

Please like/share/RT!
#Covid #Covid19 #Corona #Coronavirus

@RWMaloneMD @BretWeinstein @stkirsch
I've recently come across @jsm2334's calculation of VE based on epidemiological data, and share of population.

While the calculations by Prof Morris are correct, it does not address several underlying issues.

To make this analysis easier, I'm only going to focus on the 'All ages >12' & 'Vax (NB)' group.

I get the same results, as the Prof, using population:
- VE against death with/from Covid19 of 69.4%

It appears to be stat. significant; However there might be Sample Ratio Mismatch.
Read 13 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
17 Sep
So Florida is apparently getting hit quite hard.
We can see even in Seniors massive excess death.

So I looked at vaccine data...

1/n
According to this, we can see that ~80% of Senior Floridians are vaccinated at least once.

Ok, that'd still leave a lot of people, likely hundreds of thousands, unprotected.

2/n
But then I looked NYT Vaccine Tracker, and found this county, which has extraordinarily low vaccine uptake.

2/n
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 5 tweets
Ben M. Profile picture
10 Sep
Thread on how to calculate Vaccine Efficiacy (VE) as defined by CDC, and deep dive into MA Barnstable County MWWR outbreak case data.

⬇️⬇️⬇️ 1/n

#Covid #Covid19 #Covid_19 #Corona #Coronavirus
In order to Calculate VE, we need to calculate Risk Ratio (RR).
CDC, in their epidemiological handbook, gives this definition/example for Varicella:
Then we can calculate the VE as follows:
Read 10 tweets

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