Thread by @Saintonge235

#Protip: This is interesting numeric propaganda. Fried makes claims, but doesn't release data to support them.

And if what I can deduce from the figures is correct, I can claim masks made covid infections AS MUCH AS THREE TIMES WORSE THAN COUNTIES WITH NO MASK REQUIREMENTS!!!

https://twitter.com/NikkiFried/status/1446102207867330562

How can that be? We have to plod through some numbers, that make plausible guesses about the data not shown.

If you go down the thread, you get a link to a spreadsheet that is less than self-explanatory. After clicking on column P, and doing some formulas, things clarify.

We have forty-five school districts with no mask requirements, with data for only 15. The number of "cases" listed in columns B through H seems to be the sum of staff and student cases. The cases in I are the total for that district, through the week ending September 20th.

Columns J & K are labeled "Case per Cap" and "Peak per Cap". J turns out to be the figures in column I divided by the "district enrollment," then multiplied by 100 to make them more dramatic. K is the highest weekly figure in columns B-H, again divided by enrollment, times 100.

Note that the "cases" figure, that is, total cases, is given first, contrary to normal procedure. That also makes them more dramatic. Note too that if the figures had been divided by county population rather than enrollment, they'd have been 5.75 to 16.30 times LOWER.

And if the figures hadn't been multiplied by 100, they'd have all been less than one, again less dramatic.

So how do these figures compare with those of the districts that had mask requirements? Beats me, Fried didn't provide any link that I see.

But the REALLY interesting thing is that the ratio of highest to lowest figure in columns J & K is about 21:1.

Since Fried refers to "UP TO seven times lower" figures for masked vs. unmasked districts, I think she took the district with the highest numbers and compared it

to the three other districts she named. But comparing with the district with the lowest rate would make the masked districts have THREE TIMES MORE CASES "PER CAP."

Or maybe not. She's so vague on how the figures were derived I'm not sure. But that's the point.

"Figures don't lie, but liars sure can figure." Without a specification of what's being compared to what, we can't judge if her assertions are true.

What is clear is that she really wants to be governor, and hopes that scaring people about covid will get her the job.

@threadreaderapp unroll please